five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
No swell from this one unfortunately digger.
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- barnacle
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
no probs for me, I cant surf anyway, lol.......... anyone want to bet when the next one will be........Donweather wrote:No swell from this one unfortunately digger.
no, Im not a surfer, Im just a garbage man".
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Well the "genus of shrubs and vines in the olive family" is certainly packing a real punch at the moment. Just a shame she's so compact!!
For me, looks as though GFS has been on the money so far with her reintensifying overnight.
For me, looks as though GFS has been on the money so far with her reintensifying overnight.
- steve shearer
- BUTTONMEISTER
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
They tagged the intensification (pretty little cyclone with the annular structure) but I still reckon they are on crack with their track prediction.
EC seems much more plausible to me.
Finally got an ASCAT reading on her: she is one compact little storm......and just as it enters the swell window she moves transversely across the circle paths......
I'd reckon any swell potential is severely compromised by duration limits and it's movement across the circle paths.
IF, IF, IF she does show signs of stalling or moving more slowly south (compared to the current SE movement) then there could be cause for excitement.
This is no Sose though.
EC seems much more plausible to me.
Finally got an ASCAT reading on her: she is one compact little storm......and just as it enters the swell window she moves transversely across the circle paths......
I'd reckon any swell potential is severely compromised by duration limits and it's movement across the circle paths.
IF, IF, IF she does show signs of stalling or moving more slowly south (compared to the current SE movement) then there could be cause for excitement.
This is no Sose though.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Agree pretty much 100% Steve. GFS is the outlier when it comes to tracking/stalling predictions, but my point is that GFS has been pretty good at the moment, so fingers crossed.
Interesting to note that annular cyclones typically take longer to weaken than modelled/forecast, and therefore the higher intensity she remains, the less external influences have on her steering.
Interesting to note that annular cyclones typically take longer to weaken than modelled/forecast, and therefore the higher intensity she remains, the less external influences have on her steering.
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Feck me, it is late Summer, coming into early Autumn isn't it? I hope this lack of surf isn't a sign of things to come for this Autumn!!!
- steve shearer
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
I see some very encouraging signs that our next active phase in the tropics is imminent.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Yeah I saw that Steve......just think there's some serious model divergence in their predictions at the moment to have any real confidence if it will deliver any swell for us. Rainfall looks to be coming though!!!steve shearer wrote:I see some very encouraging signs that our next active phase in the tropics is imminent.
Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Steve, Don, would this possible activity be hitting Fiji prioer to March 3????? rose-coloured glasses....
Happiness is wanting everything you have.
- steve shearer
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Just the fact of the strong high in the Tasman by end of this week is heartening.
also strengthening caucasian/siberian high suggests the next monsoonal surge.
MJO signal moving through phase 2.
K, you don't want tropical activity while you are there. You want frontal activity in the Tasman and light/slack trades. A strong monsoonal surge will be a worst case scenario. I reckon you'll escape it.
also strengthening caucasian/siberian high suggests the next monsoonal surge.
MJO signal moving through phase 2.
K, you don't want tropical activity while you are there. You want frontal activity in the Tasman and light/slack trades. A strong monsoonal surge will be a worst case scenario. I reckon you'll escape it.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Please explain?steve shearer wrote:also strengthening caucasian/siberian high suggests the next monsoonal surge.
Yep and that would concur with the model forecasts of tropical activity over the continent ramping up towards the end of Feb. Just don't want it to weaken much as it pushes into Phase 5.steve shearer wrote:MJO signal moving through phase 2.
- steve shearer
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
That massive amount of cold dry air coming off the eurasian land mass is one of the key drivers of the cross equatorial monsoonal flow.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Oh, OK, thanks Steve.
Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Instead of later Feb, I'd expect the MJO to reach our region early into March. Hopefully we see some more activity relative to the last few weeks as the Coral Sea SST's are primed and ready!
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Yep, the MJO appears to have stalled in the Indian Ocean, confirmed by the tropical activity going down there!!!
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- newbie
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
As long as we get some waves (SEQLD) during April i'll be happy, 2 weeks off long way off, time to start praying.
From a Weatherzone user, Nitso:
NOTES ON THE MJO
The MJO signal is currently in the process of strengthening, we expect based on model guidance from a number of computer models that this moderate to strong signal will be maintained through phase 3 SE Indian Ocean and phase 4 Northern Oz before weakening in Phase 5 (Coral Sea) late in March. Consequently this strong MJO signal is likely to see the return of a vigorous monsoonal trough over north and north-west Australia with the weakening trough extending eastwards towards the Coral Sea in weeks 4 and then week 5 (last week of March) A new MJO may form and affect Australia late in April, however it's way too far to call at this stage.
From a Weatherzone user, Nitso:
NOTES ON THE MJO
The MJO signal is currently in the process of strengthening, we expect based on model guidance from a number of computer models that this moderate to strong signal will be maintained through phase 3 SE Indian Ocean and phase 4 Northern Oz before weakening in Phase 5 (Coral Sea) late in March. Consequently this strong MJO signal is likely to see the return of a vigorous monsoonal trough over north and north-west Australia with the weakening trough extending eastwards towards the Coral Sea in weeks 4 and then week 5 (last week of March) A new MJO may form and affect Australia late in April, however it's way too far to call at this stage.
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Although most of the models are indicating this next rain event to seriously affect our friends in the southern states, the fecking ants at my place are going bananas, so I'm thinking they know something the models don't!!!
Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it
Just shot your weather prediction believability right out the window.Donweather wrote:Although most of the models are indicating this next rain event to seriously affect our friends in the southern states, the fecking ants at my place are going bananas, so I'm thinking they know something the models don't!!!
Beanpole
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Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
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