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Low may bring huge 20-feet swells to Coast
24th Jan 2018 11:11 AM
by Bill Hoffman
FORECAST weather models are beginning to show heavy weather ahead for the Sunshine Coast with the potential for 20-feet and bigger swells to pound the coastline between Fraser Island and the Queensland border by early next week.
Enhanced monsoonal activity across northern Australia combined with high sea temperatures in the Coral and Tasman Seas may produce two intense lows over the coming days that appear on track to strengthen off the state's south east.
THE Bureau of Meteorology's Interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Modelling predicting a 990 hPa low moving into a position well east of the Sunshine Coast by Tuesday afternoon.
The Bureau of Meteorology's four-day forecast maps don't carry the level of definition showing up on modelling by the highly-accurate US Navy weather charts or PredictWind, recognised as the world's premier marine model.
However the BoM's Interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Modelling was this morning predicting a 990 hectopascal low forming below New Caledonia by Tuesday.
Both the PredictWind and US Navy charts show systems producing huge seas from as early as Sunday.
The situation was expected to become clearer over the next 24 hours.
Master mariner Jody Perry of Marcoola said they were witnessing the start of the season with conditions expected to become more severe into February-March as waters off south east Queensland heat up and cyclones hold their intensity further south.
He said while the various modelling still remained uncertain a big high squeezing under the systems next week would accentuate everything, especially swell size and erosion.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Chris Joseph said at this point a trough was evident in the north Coral Sea which was expected to develop over the weekend.
"The monsoon (season) is getting active but not further south," Mr Joseph said.
He said a swell-generating low well off the Queensland coast had the potential to deliver big surf.
Meanwhile Mr Joseph said an upper level trough looked set to cause some instability along the Sunshine Coast coastal strip this weekend but that there was now only a slight chance of a series of thunderstorms developing.
He said an easterly flow was likely to produce a shower or two over the coming days.
There was a muggy start to Wednesday with the relative humidity as high as 94 per cent at Sunshine Coast Airport at 5.30am and 95 per cent at Tewantin where the apparent temperature was 30.1 degrees at 7.30am.
Mr Joseph said there was now less than 60 per cent chance of showers over Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
Daytime temperatures won't exceed 29 degrees across the Australia Day long weekend with any rainfall expected to be light if no storms develop.
Winds that would be easterly for the remainder of today and into Thursday and Friday would switch to the south east Saturday, Sunday and Monday reaching gusts of 35 km/h.