RealSurf Surfers' Forum

2 days into spring, havent seen the beach in nearly 2 weeks. I hate moving and unpacking and all that stuff, but hows it looking weather wise guys

Looking the goods for late next week Digger!!!

Spring hasn't quite sprung just yet!!!

Fecking shithouse!!!!!!

Donweather wrote:Fecking shithouse!!!!!!

Yup, i havent bothered looking at the beach for a while now, no rush for me, so much to do at home anyway. I hate crap surf........

Feck me, things are looking very dire!!!

Donweather wrote:Feck me, things are looking very dire!!!

thats all right don, things cant get worse, maybe next month or the month after, cyclone season is upon us soon

Hmmmm, things are looking a little more promising on the charts!!!

Donweather wrote:Hmmmm, things are looking a little more promising on the charts!!!

That'd be right. i've gotta work next week and the week after.

Donweather wrote:Hmmmm, things are looking a little more promising on the charts!!!

Do tell don

Tasman low early next week, although still some serious divergence between models with respect to the development/movement of both the low pressure and cradling high pressure systems.

Let's pray for EC!!!

Tasman low is a bit ambitious Don.

Looks more like a broad low pressure trough to me.

any thoughts on the redevelopment of La Nina, fellas?
Late and weak, bit of a fizzer or proper cyclone season?

steve shearer wrote:Tasman low is a bit ambitious Don.

Looks more like a broad low pressure trough to me.

I'm not gonna argue over semantics here Steve. For me, the charts are forecasting a low pressure system to form in the Tasman, potentially cradled by a Tasman high, which should generate something surfable for SE Qld....which was my point of the post above.

Best looking charts we've seen for the last 7 days easy and best looking charts we're seeing for the foreseeable future.

alakaboo wrote:any thoughts on the redevelopment of La Nina, fellas?
Late and weak, bit of a fizzer or proper cyclone season?

I'm not an expert in this area at all. Steve seems to be way more knowledgeable, but based on my limited knowledge, the jury is still out as to how long and what strength this La Nina will last into our summer.

Most models are indicating more neutral or weak La Nina come our summer. GFS appears to be the main outlier here with it forecasting strengthening La Nina conditions into our summer.

All indicators are pointing to another La Nina this seasion, but it's nowhere near as strong as last year, and hence won't have as much of an impact as it did last summer on rainfall in Qld and other parts of the country.

SOI is holding a weak positive, but also the NINO3.4 index is heading south which is an indication of increased upwelling in the eastern Pacific due to stronger than normal trades across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Fair enough Don.

Tasman lows are normally understood to be closed systems resulting from strong cold fronts and generating solid surf.

But different from a tepid low pressure trough that may or may not form a weak surface low.

I think people get a very wrong impression if they think a Tasman low is forming next week.

Point taken Steve. A potential area of low pressure forming on the northern flank of Tasman high.....better wording? Apologies if I gave anyone a bum steer that we were gonna see a bomb low form.

SAsurfa wrote:All indicators are pointing to another La Nina this seasion, but it's nowhere near as strong as last year, and hence won't have as much of an impact as it did last summer on rainfall in Qld and other parts of the country.

SOI is holding a weak positive, but also the NINO3.4 index is heading south which is an indication of increased upwelling in the eastern Pacific due to stronger than normal trades across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Based on the model forecasts of Nino3.4 SST, I'd say there's enough scatter to be a little less optimistic about "All indicators", Craig.

If this website actually allowed real pictures to be posted then I'd show ya what I was talking about.