Autumn, how's it lookin'
Moderators: collnarra, PeepeelaPew, Butts, Shari, Forum Moderators
-
- Grommet
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:52 am
- Location: crowded point break
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Holy shit batman, I've just seen the forecast charts for early next week and if this comes off, I am going out on a limb hear and calling 10ft plus most of the East coast.
I havn't seen a chart like that in a long time!
If it happens and travels down the coast like they think, you can expect some macking tow-in conditions down around the big smoke. Maybe even some harbour surfing for those in the know. Depends on the winds a bit as to how the surface conditions look but there is certainly gonna be some serious swell action IMHO.
Think I can feel a dodgy knee or pressing work commitments coming on! SH.
I havn't seen a chart like that in a long time!
If it happens and travels down the coast like they think, you can expect some macking tow-in conditions down around the big smoke. Maybe even some harbour surfing for those in the know. Depends on the winds a bit as to how the surface conditions look but there is certainly gonna be some serious swell action IMHO.
Think I can feel a dodgy knee or pressing work commitments coming on! SH.
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Definitely looks like Sydney and the south coast and beyond (Tassie) are gonna see the bulk of the energy from this storm, but based on current forecasts, the peak looks to occur during the night (stealth), at least for Sydney.
- stinky_wes
- regular
- Posts: 367
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:06 pm
- Location: anywhere without a crowd
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
And right on queue the pulse comes in the still of the night... There should still be plenty on offer in the morning if you know where to go and have the cajones!
http://mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/syddir.gif
http://mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/syddir.gif
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
It always seemed likely to peak at night SW.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Mmmmmm, I don't know about the rest of you but next week is looking good with some nice super long range inconsistent E'ly groundswell and did I hear someone say offshore winds!!!
Of course I'm mainly looking out for SE Qlders.
Of course I'm mainly looking out for SE Qlders.
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Not sure what you are seeing there DonW.
There is a super-strong high pressure off NZ next week which will blow a few days of east which could get your way, but no low above it on the charts I'm looking at, so not as convinced from the latest look that it will be strong enough to make it to the coast. It has to travel a fair distance. I note your comments about it being inconsistent though.
And although SE misses most southerly swells, there will be a cranking SSW swell building later in the week which will fill up all of NSW coast.
There is a super-strong high pressure off NZ next week which will blow a few days of east which could get your way, but no low above it on the charts I'm looking at, so not as convinced from the latest look that it will be strong enough to make it to the coast. It has to travel a fair distance. I note your comments about it being inconsistent though.
And although SE misses most southerly swells, there will be a cranking SSW swell building later in the week which will fill up all of NSW coast.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Don't get me wrong Oldman, it aint gonna be huge or consistent, but to have some really fun, powerful (for it's size) inconsistent 3ft/3ft+ E'ly groundswell and potentially all day offshore winds, well that's what Autumn in SE Qld is all about!!!
You guys can have your S'ly groundswells down there!!!
You guys can have your S'ly groundswells down there!!!
-
- barnacle
- Posts: 2319
- Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:26 am
- Location: home is where the heart is.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Heres hoping for Monday Don, I might even make a trip to your favourite beach up this way.Donweather wrote:Don't get me wrong Oldman, it aint gonna be huge or consistent, but to have some really fun, powerful (for it's size) inconsistent 3ft/3ft+ E'ly groundswell and potentially all day offshore winds, well that's what Autumn in SE Qld is all about!!!
You guys can have your S'ly groundswells down there!!!
no, Im not a surfer, Im just a garbage man".
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Mate, let me know what eventuates.Donweather wrote:Don't get me wrong Oldman, it aint gonna be huge or consistent, but to have some really fun, powerful (for it's size) inconsistent 3ft/3ft+ E'ly groundswell and potentially all day offshore winds, well that's what Autumn in SE Qld is all about!!!!
3' swell and offshores is pretty much as good as it gets if you can throw in a reasonably deserted beach.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Got all of the above sorted!!!oldman wrote:3' swell and offshores is pretty much as good as it gets if you can throw in a reasonably deserted beach.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
DonW and Olds (and anyone else who is in the know), I've been hearing around the traps that there was an official prediction (BoM) that we would be likely to have a more severe winter season of East Coast Lows this year than for the last decade or so.
Good news for surf, not so good for beaches.
I've been trying to chase up the original report but without much luck. If I find it I'll post a link.
What are the precursors for development of ECLs? Is there reason to believe this far out that they will be more likely?
Good news for surf, not so good for beaches.
I've been trying to chase up the original report but without much luck. If I find it I'll post a link.
What are the precursors for development of ECLs? Is there reason to believe this far out that they will be more likely?
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Based on my limited knowledge, the precursor is a warmer than average Tasman Sea, which based on our current (albeit dieing) La Nina, I believe we have this precursor, but with a dieing La Nina, not so sure how much longer (or higher than average) the Tasman Sea temps will last.alakaboo wrote:What are the precursors for development of ECLs? Is there reason to believe this far out that they will be more likely?
Obviously you also need some vigirous cold fronts dumping a large pool of cold air over the warmer than average Tasman Sea.
Mr Shearer and Craig (from Swellnet) are much more knowledgable in this arena so perhaps they can add some more value to this discussion.
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
'boo.
I've read a few things suggesting same but can't remember any sources apart from SASurfa (Craig from swellnet) who discussed this through the late summer months. Wasn't aware that BOM had called it also.
The theory was that the strong La Nina and historically high ocean temps in the Coral and Tasman seas meeting the cold winds from the usual frontal systems of autumn/winter would result in much higher probability of ECL's forming in the Tasman.
So it was just based on cold air meeting higher than normal ocean temps which is usually a pre-cursor to storms and possibly lows.
But no doubt DonW will be much more technically minded to explain. I'm just repeating sentences with not much greater insight than a parrot.
Re the beaches, the sand build up at the local is pretty high, but the build up on some of the central coast beaches I frequent has been huge. Been a long time since I have seen that much sand at some of them, and consequently the straighthanders have been the dominant wave type.
I've read a few things suggesting same but can't remember any sources apart from SASurfa (Craig from swellnet) who discussed this through the late summer months. Wasn't aware that BOM had called it also.
The theory was that the strong La Nina and historically high ocean temps in the Coral and Tasman seas meeting the cold winds from the usual frontal systems of autumn/winter would result in much higher probability of ECL's forming in the Tasman.
So it was just based on cold air meeting higher than normal ocean temps which is usually a pre-cursor to storms and possibly lows.
But no doubt DonW will be much more technically minded to explain. I'm just repeating sentences with not much greater insight than a parrot.
Re the beaches, the sand build up at the local is pretty high, but the build up on some of the central coast beaches I frequent has been huge. Been a long time since I have seen that much sand at some of them, and consequently the straighthanders have been the dominant wave type.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Cheers fellas. As I said, if I find the original report I'll pass it on.
re the sand Olds, I think the last time there was this much sand around was in the summer of 06-07, which was before we had the last good ECL season.
Without having the buoy or beach width data to back it up, I think there is a pattern. The active summer states associated with La Nina tend to lead to more northerly swells, which result in accretion at many NSW beaches (Coffs and south).
This can then lead into the ECL pattern described above.
I've just pulled that from the ether, but from memory the long term records at Collaroy-Narrabeen would bear that out.
SEQ and northern NSW beaches seem to be a bit light on in the sand department from all reports. I'll be up to check some out in a few weeks.
re the sand Olds, I think the last time there was this much sand around was in the summer of 06-07, which was before we had the last good ECL season.
Without having the buoy or beach width data to back it up, I think there is a pattern. The active summer states associated with La Nina tend to lead to more northerly swells, which result in accretion at many NSW beaches (Coffs and south).
This can then lead into the ECL pattern described above.
I've just pulled that from the ether, but from memory the long term records at Collaroy-Narrabeen would bear that out.
SEQ and northern NSW beaches seem to be a bit light on in the sand department from all reports. I'll be up to check some out in a few weeks.
- black duck
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 5099
- Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2009 10:47 am
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Same for south coast olds. So much sand. Local lake mouth has closed over twice after being dredged during summer. Beaches are big.oldman wrote: Re the beaches, the sand build up at the local is pretty high, but the build up on some of the central coast beaches I frequent has been huge. Been a long time since I have seen that much sand at some of them, and consequently the straighthanders have been the dominant wave type.
My half baked unscientific guess is that we've had plenty of small (sand building) surf but no serious storm swells for over a year (maybe 2) to hack away at all the build up.
Just quietly, the overzealous dune reclamation projects of the last 20 years or so have also played havoc with the banks. More straight handers than ever.
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
I have never seen so much sand erosion at my favourite SC beachie before. It's been dessimated.alakaboo wrote:SEQ and northern NSW beaches seem to be a bit light on in the sand department from all reports. I'll be up to check some out in a few weeks.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
and would you say there have been more swells from the northern quadrant than in typical years?
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
i'm still chasing the report, but found one from Geoscience Australia which suggested the reverse pattern, i.e. more ECLs when there is an El Nino in effect http://www.ga.gov.au/image_cache/GA4206.pdf
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests