July's mega south

[steve shearer]

BTW a guy in NZ at the beginning of this year predicted to the week the two unseasonal downpours we've had in the last couple of months (also using sunspots).

Their record is spotty.
Prredicting an ECL or major Tasman low in May during a La Nina transition is not forecasting.....thats shooting goldfish in a bowl.

[Trev]

BTW a guy in NZ at the beginning of this year predicted to the week the two unseasonal downpours we've had in the last couple of months (also using sunspots).

Their record is spotty.
Prredicting an ECL or major Tasman low in May during a La Nina transition is not forecasting.....thats shooting goldfish in a bowl.

You can pick individual forecasts apart but you should research the Cromanhurst Observatory's history in full before passing judgement.
I'm not saying they're perfect. Neither do they, but they get a pretty good strike rate over decades.
IMO it's not a science but an art form.

[steve shearer]

There is a correlative relationship between sunspot activity and atmospheric disturbances.......as yet no causal link between specific weather systems though....
ENSO, MJO, Rossby Waves, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole are all better predictors.

[AZ]

I'm skeptical of most long-range forecasters out there. Most that I have seen make broad ranging forecasts that can be interpreted as being correct, without actually being so. Example: Statements such as shower activity likely over southern Victoria around the 20-24th of August 2009, possibly heavy near the Otway Ranges and over Alpine regions.

Now that's a pretty good bet in late August that there will be a front passing through southern Victoria, which tends to happen on a weekly basis or less. Now also adding in the heavier falls near the Otway ranges and Alpine regions seems to add credence to the forecast, but it's mearly the norm that these areas to get more rainfall with a typical winter time front.

Now, when the actual event arrives, it only has to rain on one of the days between the 20-24th, or one day either side and I can claim some sort of magical talent for predicting the weather based on the phases of Venus. If people are conned enough they will forgive rainfall being lighter or out by a few days. If you do a scientific analysis on the true accuracy of these long-range guys, I don't think too many will stack up.

If you can provide the evidence I'd like to see it.

Onto Nick's prediction. It was always a big call to make 8days+ out, especially with so many dynamic (rapidly evolving) low pressure systems tracking across the Australian continent from west to east. Always a dangerous time to put faith in long-range models, as the do not handle these dynamic system all that well.

GFS does have a large and deep low projected over the Tasman Sea on Monday and Tuesday, but EC is still not coming to town on this (much weaker low over the Tasman). Even if the GFS scenario does come off, this is a separate and earlier system to the one I believe Nick was referring to. If he was a long-range forecaster he could claim this as a 'hit' or correct forecast but against a proper analysis you'd call it a miss. As the end user (surfer) you'd be happy though, much in the same way as a farmer wanting rain.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

[Trev]

I'm skeptical of most long-range forecasters out there. Most that I have seen make broad ranging forecasts that can be interpreted as being correct, without actually being so. Example: Statements such as shower activity likely over southern Victoria around the 20-24th of August 2009, possibly heavy near the Otway Ranges and over Alpine regions.

Now that's a pretty good bet in late August that there will be a front passing through southern Victoria, which tends to happen on a weekly basis or less. Now also adding in the heavier falls near the Otway ranges and Alpine regions seems to add credence to the forecast, but it's mearly the norm that these areas to get more rainfall with a typical winter time front.

Now, when the actual event arrives, it only has to rain on one of the days between the 20-24th, or one day either side and I can claim some sort of magical talent for predicting the weather based on the phases of Venus. If people are conned enough they will forgive rainfall being lighter or out by a few days. If you do a scientific analysis on the true accuracy of these long-range guys, I don't think too many will stack up.

If you can provide the evidence I'd like to see it.

Onto Nick's prediction. It was always a big call to make 8days+ out, especially with so many dynamic (rapidly evolving) low pressure systems tracking across the Australian continent from west to east. Always a dangerous time to put faith in long-range models, as the do not handle these dynamic system all that well.

GFS does have a large and deep low projected over the Tasman Sea on Monday and Tuesday, but EC is still not coming to town on this (much weaker low over the Tasman). Even if the GFS scenario does come off, this is a separate and earlier system to the one I believe Nick was referring to. If he was a long-range forecaster he could claim this as a 'hit' or correct forecast but against a proper analysis you'd call it a miss. As the end user (surfer) you'd be happy though, much in the same way as a farmer wanting rain.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

I'm talking "long range as months or a year out, not a couple/ few weeks. What you're referring to is what I call the "nostradamus syndrome" - vague preditions which can be interpreted any way you like.
True "long-range weather forecasters" are generally more specific.

[Trev]

I'm skeptical of most long-range forecasters out there. Most that I have seen make broad ranging forecasts that can be interpreted as being correct, without actually being so. Example: Statements such as shower activity likely over southern Victoria around the 20-24th of August 2009, possibly heavy near the Otway Ranges and over Alpine regions.

Now that's a pretty good bet in late August that there will be a front passing through southern Victoria, which tends to happen on a weekly basis or less. Now also adding in the heavier falls near the Otway ranges and Alpine regions seems to add credence to the forecast, but it's mearly the norm that these areas to get more rainfall with a typical winter time front.

Now, when the actual event arrives, it only has to rain on one of the days between the 20-24th, or one day either side and I can claim some sort of magical talent for predicting the weather based on the phases of Venus. If people are conned enough they will forgive rainfall being lighter or out by a few days. If you do a scientific analysis on the true accuracy of these long-range guys, I don't think too many will stack up.

If you can provide the evidence I'd like to see it.

Onto Nick's prediction. It was always a big call to make 8days+ out, especially with so many dynamic (rapidly evolving) low pressure systems tracking across the Australian continent from west to east. Always a dangerous time to put faith in long-range models, as the do not handle these dynamic system all that well.

GFS does have a large and deep low projected over the Tasman Sea on Monday and Tuesday, but EC is still not coming to town on this (much weaker low over the Tasman). Even if the GFS scenario does come off, this is a separate and earlier system to the one I believe Nick was referring to. If he was a long-range forecaster he could claim this as a 'hit' or correct forecast but against a proper analysis you'd call it a miss. As the end user (surfer) you'd be happy though, much in the same way as a farmer wanting rain.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

I'm talking "long range as months or a year out, not a couple/ few weeks. What you're referring to is what I call the "nostradamus syndrome" - vague preditions which can be interpreted any way you like.
True "long-range weather forecasters" are generally more specific.

[Donweather]

Even if the GFS scenario does come off, this is a separate and earlier system to the one I believe Nick was referring to. If he was a long-range forecaster he could claim this as a 'hit' or correct forecast but against a proper analysis you'd call it a miss.

I don't believe Nick's call was for the Tasman low at all. His dates are way out beyond that, and in fact Nick was referring to the S'ly winds around 4-7 July.......which would imply the swell would be arriving even later than this.

Of course this is all just my interpretation of Nick's comments, cause whenever I try and ask him to be more specific about his original call he doesn't seem to answer........perhaps a bit like other "long-range forecasters"?

[SAsurfa]

Well said AZ!

[tiger]

Ya gotta understand lads, Trev's an old(ish) fella. Old folk lap that sh1t up. My parents go hook, line and sinker for that stuff.

[Trev]

Ya gotta understand lads, Trev's an old(ish) fella. Old folk lap that sh1t up. My parents go hook, line and sinker for that stuff.

You'll get yours, Alice.

[steve shearer]

I

Onto Nick's prediction. It was always a big call to make 8days+ out, especially with so many dynamic (rapidly evolving) low pressure systems tracking across the Australian continent from west to east. Always a dangerous time to put faith in long-range models, as the do not handle these dynamic system all that well.

GFS does have a large and deep low projected over the Tasman Sea on Monday and Tuesday, but EC is still not coming to town on this (much weaker low over the Tasman). Even if the GFS scenario does come off, this is a separate and earlier system to the one I believe Nick was referring to. If he was a long-range forecaster he could claim this as a 'hit' or correct forecast but against a proper analysis you'd call it a miss. As the end user (surfer) you'd be happy though, much in the same way as a farmer wanting rain.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

Word Up AZ.....
The continental high now seems to slide in and force the cold front/ parent lows into a more zonal pattern....which is always the danger on the east coast.

The tasman low for next week is an entirely unrelated system. As you correctly noted.

[Nick Carroll]

Even if the GFS scenario does come off, this is a separate and earlier system to the one I believe Nick was referring to. If he was a long-range forecaster he could claim this as a 'hit' or correct forecast but against a proper analysis you'd call it a miss.

I don't believe Nick's call was for the Tasman low at all. His dates are way out beyond that, and in fact Nick was referring to the S'ly winds around 4-7 July.......which would imply the swell would be arriving even later than this.

Of course this is all just my interpretation of Nick's comments, cause whenever I try and ask him to be more specific about his original call he doesn't seem to answer........perhaps a bit like other "long-range forecasters"?

in this case I wasn't making a call so much as noting the long range progs and wondering what you cnuts made of it...the thing looked like a massive swell on those charts a few days ago and I thought crikey maybe this non winter would actually turn into a winter.

trevg the joke re sheep's bladders arises from a segue in Monty Python's Holy Grail movie and is intended to poke some light fun at the human capacity to search for invisible connections between events. People have been doing this for thousands of years and indeed there always seems to be a pattern to the behaviour. It almost always seems to involve attempts to predict the future, almost always involves mysterious and very distal phenomena (ie stars and planetary movements), almost always involves "secret" knowledge which is very hard or impossible to pin down, and almost always seems to rely on the human willingness to reinstate belief. Whatever the benefits or otherwise of the Jones-Walker weather prediction system, it sure seems to fit all these bills to a T; the system is largely kept secret, has never undergone serious examination by independent observers (by dint of its practitioners' unwillingness to expose its techniques), involves planetary movements, attempts to predict the future via mysterious and distal phenomena (as opposed to more proximal and clearly linked phenomena, like sea surface temperatures), and its failures are quickly forgotten by its adherents, who cling to its successes with touching faith.

What we need is a Jones-Walker surf forecast system. I for one would like to know 12 months in advance what kind of quiver I really really need for a Hawaiian winter season.

[Trev]

trevg the joke re sheep's bladders arises from a segue in Monty Python's Holy Grail movie and is intended to poke some light fun at the human capacity to search for invisible connections between events. People have been doing this for thousands of years and indeed there always seems to be a pattern to the behaviour. It almost always seems to involve attempts to predict the future, almost always involves mysterious and very distal phenomena (ie stars and planetary movements), almost always involves "secret" knowledge which is very hard or impossible to pin down, and almost always seems to rely on the human willingness to reinstate belief. Whatever the benefits or otherwise of the Jones-Walker weather prediction system, it sure seems to fit all these bills to a T; the system is largely kept secret, has never undergone serious examination by independent observers (by dint of its practitioners' unwillingness to expose its techniques), involves planetary movements, attempts to predict the future via mysterious and distal phenomena (as opposed to more proximal and clearly linked phenomena, like sea surface temperatures), and its failures are quickly forgotten by its adherents, who cling to its successes with touching faith.

^^^
Holy shit, Batman.

[puurri]

^^^ and the "buried pyramids of Gympie" (Lennox Walker's home town)

[Trev]

(Lennox Walker's home town)

That would be Killara.

[steve shearer]

Carroll's low is moving through now.....strong cold outbreak and devastation in the south-eastern states but mostly refracted southerly swell for us......looks good for n.... c.......though.

[Nick Carroll]

and for C...b..... ....which is no doubt full of semi competent but wealthy Americans, who'll ooo and ahhh from the boats at Roseman getting about 200 10 second barrels while he surfs that fcuken place by himself.

[DV8]

It looks like its going to be non event for the East coast doesn't it ????

Someone say it isn't so .............