RealSurf Surfers' Forum

Great edit of Seth by Like Sorensen ...

https://www.lukesorensen.com.au/cyclone ... ehZZFME5f4

Awesome!

Mitchell Rae posted some footage on the Outer Island Facebook page of someone getting an insane barrel at Kirra on one of his 8’ mal shapes.

alakaboo wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:02 pm

Just wait until the bar shifts there and you can walk from Bulcock.

Do you consider this likely?

Long term, yes.
The canal estates near Trev shifted the tidal prism balance, and the entrance was historically a few hundred metres south.

What is long term in this instance? 15 years, 50 years…….?

alakaboo wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 06, 2022 12:10 pm

Long term, yes.
The canal estates near Trev shifted the tidal prism balance, and the entrance was historically a few hundred metres south.

I thought the canal development was only about 30 years old.

Could be before April with a decent La Nina.
Could be 20 years, but I would think less.
There's not that much sand north of there but it depends how the ebb tide delta responds. It could build up more of an island but retain the current bar location.

Yes Trev, the whole passage has had greater flow rates since then, part of the reason why it was getting eroded from the inside.

BMT WBM have done modelling, Matt Barnes did some of the work.
Not sure how much of it was made public.

A very enjoyable report by Nick on the Cyclone Seth swell. Great photos. Interesting to read that the paddlers vs jet ski crew seem to have come to a territorial arrangement at Kirra.

https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/big- ... 022/141156

Yeah, read some of that. Looks good from the photos. I will watch when we get back to Sydney.

foamy wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:29 am

A very enjoyable report by Nick on the Cyclone Seth swell. Great photos. Interesting to read that the paddlers vs jet ski crew seem to have come to a territorial arrangement at Kirra.

https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/big- ... 022/141156

Great read, great pics!

What more can you ask for?

alakaboo wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:45 pm

You're bang on, it won't affect Golden Beach.
But further south than I was expecting.

Hope this link works. A USC expert.

https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/20 ... fications/

He does good work.

I will qualify my previous statement a bit. Golden Beach won't immediately get surf or get washed away within 2 years, like some of the local groups think.

alakaboo wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:45 am

He does good work.

I will qualify my previous statement a bit. Golden Beach won't immediately get surf or get washed away within 2 years, like some of the local groups think.

I had a think through your earlier explanation about the canals and I can see how all the extra water stored in the canals (and they've just added a whole extra network of them between Pelican Waters shopping centre and Bells Creek), rushing through the one outlet near the Power Boat Club would have a serious impact on erosion on the inside of Bribie just north of there.
It would have the effect of pushing the natural outflow from further up the passage towards the east.

BTW, the gap is widening daily.

Trev wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:02 pm

pushing the natural outflow from further up the passage towards the east.

BTW, the gap is widening daily.

Again, the poo thread.

Yep, you got it.

Because it increases the volume of moving water each cycle it also accelerates the current velocity, particularly on the outside of the channel. i.e. directly across from Gemini, and up near Leach Park. That's why they had to put in those groynes.

It's possible sand will start to fill in north of the break, as water is lazy and it will take the shorter path so the currents north of there will drop a lot.
Take a wander along that boardwalk opposite where we had a beer and check with the fishermen in a week or so. Bet they say the tides aren't as strong as normal as it nears the full moon.

Water is lazy?

Beanpole wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:31 pm

Water is lazy?

Always takes the path of least resistance.