Just general surfing stuff

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Cranked
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:22 pm

It was actually the first paragraph after several pages that I thought I understood.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:28 pm

Yeah, his Black Swan Theory is a classic. Been around for many years. The change from stable societies with little risk and little preparation for risk to unstable societies where risk is everywhere. Opportunities for great luck and great misfortune. Sport is a good example. The change from sporting prowess being largely amateur and widespread to professional and highly elitist with massive monetary reward for success.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:40 pm

Surfing and footy. Intellectual pursuits. Probably not.

“An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside”

Let’s examine that.

Spend 100 a month on lottery tickets and don’t buy real estate or BBB rated bonds, a medium risk investment. Guys clearly an idiot.
Beanpole wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:34 pm
I grew up with Sikhs, Thudster.
Quoted from the book “A serendipitous life. Bean there, done that”

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:50 pm

You should have a read, Thudster.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:53 pm

Nah. I’m more of a pick your own adventure type of guy.

And besides Beans I’m actually a believer in the Black and Scholes pricing model as a hedging tool.

Any thoughts on that statement from anyone talking about this Taleb fella and his philosophy on risk?

Happy to hear it. Critical thinkers only, cut and paste slabs of text or introduction book review opinions not welcome.
Beanpole wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:34 pm
I grew up with Sikhs, Thudster.
Quoted from the book “A serendipitous life. Bean there, done that”

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:53 pm

Just trying to get you on the page Thudster.
Don’t think you will get many takers for in-depth analysis of equations on investment risk around here.
Last edited by Beanpole on Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:55 pm

Thud wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:53 pm


Happy to hear it. Critical thinkers only, cut and paste slabs of text or introduction book review opinions not welcome.
:lol:
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:57 pm

Well off you go, Steve. Thudster “believes in” this particular calculus. What’s your opinion of it?
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:03 pm

Wasn’t a criticism of anyone Beans. I’m genuinely interested.
Beanpole wrote:
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I grew up with Sikhs, Thudster.
Quoted from the book “A serendipitous life. Bean there, done that”

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:06 pm

Well I'm out then!
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:17 pm

Tell me about this Black and Scholes pricing model Thud.

And I'll give you my honest opinion on if there is any common ground with Taleb or they are diametrically opposed.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:27 pm

A question with a question. We playing this game.
Beanpole wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:34 pm
I grew up with Sikhs, Thudster.
Quoted from the book “A serendipitous life. Bean there, done that”

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:31 pm

Thud wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:40 pm
Surfing and footy. Intellectual pursuits. Probably not.

“An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside”

Let’s examine that.

Spend 100 a month on lottery tickets and don’t buy real estate or BBB rated bonds, a medium risk investment. Guys clearly an idiot.
LOL, obviously you didn't read my quote
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:44 pm

I cut and pasted from your cut and paste.

Why are you guys getting so bent out of shape?
Beanpole wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:34 pm
I grew up with Sikhs, Thudster.
Quoted from the book “A serendipitous life. Bean there, done that”

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:52 pm

Thud wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:27 pm
A question with a question. We playing this game.
….or are we?
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:52 pm

Thud wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:44 pm
I cut and pasted from your cut and paste.

Why are you guys getting so bent out of shape?
I googled it.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:12 pm

Very good.

Black and Scholes is an options pricing model. Makes a few assumptions to arrive at a price for the option to allow suitable hedging for the underlying asset e.g. shares. You use it for Euro call options. It’s generally the accepted calculation for pricing and has proven to be accurate. Of course you can make incorrect assumptions like any business case and your pricing will be wrong. Back in the day when I worked on the trading floor in London (I wasn’t a trader I’m terrible at math) software like Muex etc utilised B&S.So it’s the accepted standard.

I’m interested in this Tabet guy as he doesn’t believe in B&S as a hedging strategy, even though it’s proven and the guys behind it given noble peace prizes. He also doesn’t use academic references to support his own papers. So as a few of you guys are supporting his theories (don’t know if they have been peer reviewed) I’m interested to understand why his Black Swan book etc is so informative
Beanpole wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:34 pm
I grew up with Sikhs, Thudster.
Quoted from the book “A serendipitous life. Bean there, done that”

Beanpole
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:38 pm

A Black Swan Event Concept is based on what happened when Early European Explorers discovered black swans in Australia. In classic philosophy the concept of a black swan had been used as an impossible anomaly. Swans were always white. A priori ideals. After that the concept had exactly the opposite meaning.
It’s all about being ready for the last war and not being ready for the next curved ball that uproots the foundations.
In relation to technologies for example you can look at what is suddenly superseded but also at what old technologies or practices may suddenly become relevant again.
Not particularly useful for assessing minor variations.

I’m sure Steve can give you a definitive summary.
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