Just general surfing stuff

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steve shearer
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:41 pm

yes.

I have a potent counter-argument to that relying on Nassim Nicholas Taleb's theories on localism/regionalism.

But I'll keep it shelved for now.

Leej would likely get exercised and see casual racism in the view.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Mr Puffy Pants » Sat Jul 16, 2022 2:14 pm

No, just overreach

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sat Jul 16, 2022 2:49 pm

steve shearer wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:41 pm
yes.

I have a potent counter-argument to that relying on Nassim Nicholas Taleb's theories on localism/regionalism.

But I'll keep it shelved for now.

Leej would likely get exercised and see casual racism in the view.
You've definitely piqued my interest:

"Taleb has described his main challenge as mapping his ideas of "robustification" and "antifragility", that is, how to live and act in a world we do not understand and build robustness to black swan events. Taleb introduced the idea of the "fourth quadrant" in the exposure domain.[69] One of its applications is in his definition of the most effective (that is, least fragile) risk management approach: what he calls the "barbell strategy" which is based on avoiding the middle in favor of linear combination of extremes, across all domains from politics to economics to one's personal life. These are deemed by Taleb to be more robust to estimation errors. For instance, he suggests that investing money in 'medium risk' investments is pointless, because risk is difficult, if not impossible to compute. His preferred strategy is to be both hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time. For example, an investor might put 80 to 90% of their money in extremely safe instruments, such as treasury bills, with the remainder going into highly risky and diversified speculative bets. An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside."
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Cranked
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:22 pm

It was actually the first paragraph after several pages that I thought I understood.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:28 pm

Yeah, his Black Swan Theory is a classic. Been around for many years. The change from stable societies with little risk and little preparation for risk to unstable societies where risk is everywhere. Opportunities for great luck and great misfortune. Sport is a good example. The change from sporting prowess being largely amateur and widespread to professional and highly elitist with massive monetary reward for success.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:40 pm

Surfing and footy. Intellectual pursuits. Probably not.

“An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside”

Let’s examine that.

Spend 100 a month on lottery tickets and don’t buy real estate or BBB rated bonds, a medium risk investment. Guys clearly an idiot.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:50 pm

You should have a read, Thudster.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:53 pm

Nah. I’m more of a pick your own adventure type of guy.

And besides Beans I’m actually a believer in the Black and Scholes pricing model as a hedging tool.

Any thoughts on that statement from anyone talking about this Taleb fella and his philosophy on risk?

Happy to hear it. Critical thinkers only, cut and paste slabs of text or introduction book review opinions not welcome.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:53 pm

Just trying to get you on the page Thudster.
Don’t think you will get many takers for in-depth analysis of equations on investment risk around here.
Last edited by Beanpole on Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:55 pm

Thud wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:53 pm


Happy to hear it. Critical thinkers only, cut and paste slabs of text or introduction book review opinions not welcome.
:lol:
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:57 pm

Well off you go, Steve. Thudster “believes in” this particular calculus. What’s your opinion of it?
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:03 pm

Wasn’t a criticism of anyone Beans. I’m genuinely interested.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:06 pm

Well I'm out then!
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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steve shearer
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:17 pm

Tell me about this Black and Scholes pricing model Thud.

And I'll give you my honest opinion on if there is any common ground with Taleb or they are diametrically opposed.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:27 pm

A question with a question. We playing this game.
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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:31 pm

Thud wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:40 pm
Surfing and footy. Intellectual pursuits. Probably not.

“An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside”

Let’s examine that.

Spend 100 a month on lottery tickets and don’t buy real estate or BBB rated bonds, a medium risk investment. Guys clearly an idiot.
LOL, obviously you didn't read my quote
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Thud » Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:44 pm

I cut and pasted from your cut and paste.

Why are you guys getting so bent out of shape?
I don't go out of my way to be outrageous, I just go out of my way to look at things.

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Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Beanpole » Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:52 pm

Thud wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:27 pm
A question with a question. We playing this game.
….or are we?
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