Just general surfing stuff

[steve shearer]

yes.

I have a potent counter-argument to that relying on Nassim Nicholas Taleb's theories on localism/regionalism.

But I'll keep it shelved for now.

Leej would likely get exercised and see casual racism in the view.

[Mr Puffy Pants]

No, just overreach

[Cranked]

yes.

I have a potent counter-argument to that relying on Nassim Nicholas Taleb's theories on localism/regionalism.

But I'll keep it shelved for now.

Leej would likely get exercised and see casual racism in the view.

You've definitely piqued my interest:

"Taleb has described his main challenge as mapping his ideas of "robustification" and "antifragility", that is, how to live and act in a world we do not understand and build robustness to black swan events. Taleb introduced the idea of the "fourth quadrant" in the exposure domain.[69] One of its applications is in his definition of the most effective (that is, least fragile) risk management approach: what he calls the "barbell strategy" which is based on avoiding the middle in favor of linear combination of extremes, across all domains from politics to economics to one's personal life. These are deemed by Taleb to be more robust to estimation errors. For instance, he suggests that investing money in 'medium risk' investments is pointless, because risk is difficult, if not impossible to compute. His preferred strategy is to be both hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time. For example, an investor might put 80 to 90% of their money in extremely safe instruments, such as treasury bills, with the remainder going into highly risky and diversified speculative bets. An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside."

[Cranked]

It was actually the first paragraph after several pages that I thought I understood.

[Beanpole]

Yeah, his Black Swan Theory is a classic. Been around for many years. The change from stable societies with little risk and little preparation for risk to unstable societies where risk is everywhere. Opportunities for great luck and great misfortune. Sport is a good example. The change from sporting prowess being largely amateur and widespread to professional and highly elitist with massive monetary reward for success.

[Thud]

Surfing and footy. Intellectual pursuits. Probably not.

“An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside”

Let’s examine that.

Spend 100 a month on lottery tickets and don’t buy real estate or BBB rated bonds, a medium risk investment. Guys clearly an idiot.

[Beanpole]

You should have a read, Thudster.

[Thud]

Nah. I’m more of a pick your own adventure type of guy.

And besides Beans I’m actually a believer in the Black and Scholes pricing model as a hedging tool.

Any thoughts on that statement from anyone talking about this Taleb fella and his philosophy on risk?

Happy to hear it. Critical thinkers only, cut and paste slabs of text or introduction book review opinions not welcome.

[Beanpole]

Just trying to get you on the page Thudster.
Don’t think you will get many takers for in-depth analysis of equations on investment risk around here.

[steve shearer]

Happy to hear it. Critical thinkers only, cut and paste slabs of text or introduction book review opinions not welcome.

[Beanpole]

Well off you go, Steve. Thudster “believes in” this particular calculus. What’s your opinion of it?

[Thud]

Wasn’t a criticism of anyone Beans. I’m genuinely interested.

[Cranked]

Well I'm out then!

[steve shearer]

Tell me about this Black and Scholes pricing model Thud.

And I'll give you my honest opinion on if there is any common ground with Taleb or they are diametrically opposed.

[Thud]

A question with a question. We playing this game.

[Cranked]

Surfing and footy. Intellectual pursuits. Probably not.

“An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside”

Let’s examine that.

Spend 100 a month on lottery tickets and don’t buy real estate or BBB rated bonds, a medium risk investment. Guys clearly an idiot.

LOL, obviously you didn't read my quote

[Thud]

I cut and pasted from your cut and paste.

Why are you guys getting so bent out of shape?

[Beanpole]

A question with a question. We playing this game.

….or are we?