RealSurf Surfers' Forum

Is it Spring?? I've been in Central America for the last 6 months...but ive been keeping an eye on conditions back home...is it just me or have I just missed one of the most consistent 6 months of surf on the east coast?
And by the looks of it the usual Spring dribble has been non-existent???
(Not that im compaining, the surf is ok in this neck of the woods...)

are you on coke?

it's been miserable pus.

Yep, usual sou'easters and sloppy banks. Also great for blue bottles Summer here we come.

steve shearer wrote:are you on coke?

it's been miserable pus.

That's a little harsh Steve. I personally think it hasn't been too bad a spring. Yeah sure we've had a few weeks of woeful crap, but all in all so far, it's not been too bad IMO. I've certainly had A LOT worse Springs up here that's for sure!!!

Steve's living in some alternative universe.

Even if we don't get a wave on the entire east coast for 6 weeks, it's been the best spring in living memory.

Sydney has a different regime to here....but best in living memory?

Ya winding me up Olds.

There's been some passable days but mostly it's been typical for the season which is dire.

Olds Sep 19-21 2010......otherwise known as the Scardy Cloudbreak swell the east coast luxuriated in 8-12ft of super lined up S/SSE groundswell and offshore winds.

There's been nothing even half as good as that.

Surely you haven't forgotten already?

Donweather wrote: That's a little harsh Steve. I personally think it hasn't been too bad a spring. Yeah sure we've had a few weeks of woeful crap, but all in all so far,

A few weeks?

We're only 6 weeks into it.

The tendency for human memory is to cherry pick the good days and forget the rest.

It was a woeful winter followed by a typically flaccid spring. (with the exception of last Mondays long period S'ly groundswell which saw solid 6ft surf at the Point and the current pulses).

steve shearer wrote:The tendency for human memory is to cherry pick the good days and forget the rest.

he said, as he then proceeds to cherry pick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

steve shearer wrote:Olds Sep 19-21 2010......otherwise known as the Scardy Cloudbreak swell the east coast luxuriated in 8-12ft of super lined up S/SSE groundswell and offshore winds.

I've just come back from 2 weeks holidays SS. The same school holiday 2 weeks I've had for the last 10 years, seeing as my boy has been 10 years at school.

There was maybe 2 days out of 14 where surfing was not an option, and I had some lovely offshore 2 - 3 foot days.

Now if all you every remember was 10' swells then it is easy to see why you are so deluded, but normally spring brings long periods of unsurfably small conditions, even too small for SUPS.

1 - 2 foot, 2 - 3 foot, lots of offshore days, occasional bigger swells and the last week since I've been back at work has seen comparably sizable conditions - been pretty much 3 - 4 foot that whole time except when it was 6 foot.

Where you been? Oh that's right, you don't live in the swell magnet realms of Sydney and nearby regions.

And this in Spring, when mid September to early December usually brings about 5 surfable days in total.

steve shearer wrote:It was a woeful winter followed by a typically flaccid spring. (with the exception of last Mondays long period S'ly groundswell which saw solid 6ft surf at the Point and the current pulses).

Oh yeah there was that one.

Best Spring for a long time, a long long time, and it's only half over.

Go cherry pick that one, I've just put together the last 4 weeks of the 6 weeks of this Spring, and I know there were some more waves before that.

You've been missing out SS.

we'll discuss this further outside the Bar at the RS BBQ



just me and you


edit: while we're both cherry picking I'll see your 1-2 to 2-3ft days and raise you the Andy Irons swell of 2010. Clean 3-5ft E swell for 3 days with offshore winds (2-5Nov).

Ain't seen nothing remotely of that size and quality this Spring and nor are we likely to.

So best in living memory is already not half as good as even 2 years ago.

It's all there in the written records Olds.

I feel like I have been getting skunked massively lately.

After a winter made up of occasional close out south swell Manly dawn sessions I ventured to south west France in September to find it pumped all August. My trip consisted of 2 week dead onshores starting at 9am with a minute swell.

Since my return I have had basically no decent swell in Sydney or se slop fest. a 4 day trip to Pacific Palms delivered near flat conditions with no banks.

Who would of thought replacing living in Avalon and a local job with a city career and the manly rental market would impact my surfing life?

Too long between good sessions.

"First world problems"

Steve, I think we're (me and olds) comparing quantity to your quality. Agreed the swell hasn't been pumping, but as far as spring goes, it also hasn't been N'ly windswell for days on end either. In fact the N'ly windswell (and accompanying winds) really hasn't kicked into gear in any real shape/fashion at all this Spring yet (nor do I want them to).

When you say quantity Don, are you referring to every day this Spring, or just the days you went surfing because you thought it might be surfable?
There is a difference.

As far as the N'lies go. I grant you that they haven't perhaps quite kicked in as strongly as expected.

Stats show 9/31 Days of August N'ly (early onset).

16/30 days of Sep with N'lies.

So far Oct is 4/16, but with 20 knot N'lies right now and more to come.

So there has been a significant pattern of N'lies, usually in a 3 day cycle.

SEQLD has had no significant swells this Spring, NENSW has had a trickle.

steve shearer wrote:we'll discuss this further outside the Bar at the RS BBQ



just me and you


edit: while we're both cherry picking I'll see your 1-2 to 2-3ft days and raise you the Andy Irons swell of 2010. Clean 3-5ft E swell for 3 days with offshore winds (2-5Nov).

Ain't seen nothing remotely of that size and quality this Spring and nor are we likely to.

So best in living memory is already not half as good as even 2 years ago.

It's all there in the written records Olds.

So you're putting up your 2 days of perfect swell (surrounded by 6 weeks either side of complete flatness) to my 4 weeks of swell varying from 1-2 foot offshore to a couple of days of 6' swell and heaps of offshore or oily glass conditions in the 2 to 3 foot range.

Which part of this isn't getting through Steve?

I'll have to head off to the BBQ thread. Haven't ventured in there since page 2 or so. It's up to 13 now isn't it?

Hang on 4 weeks of swell?

Thats a stretch.

You said this Spring was the "best in living memory".

It quite clearly is nowhere near that outrageous piece of hyperbole.


IN fact, only 2 years ago, 2010 as we transitioned out of El Nino into La Nina we had a far better, more consistent Spring with actual noteworthy and significant swell events.

This one has been better in Syd/Central Coast than NENSW/SEQLD, where it's been just a bit better than abysmal.

Sightly above average, OK.

Best in living memory, not even close.

For what it's worth, here's the stats for SE Qld/NE NSW based on the last 3 Springs (noting I've taken the same period up 16 October in all 3 years below):

2010
Aug 9 days with N'ly winds and 15 days with swell 2ft or above
Sept 15 days with N'ly winds and 14 days with swell 2ft or above
Oct 4 days with N'ly winds and 15 days with swell 2ft or above (note October 2010 pumped for the first 15 days straight!!!!)

2011
Aug 2 days with N'ly winds and 21 days with swell 2ft or above
Sept 10 days with N'ly winds and 15 days with swell 2ft or above
Oct 5 days with N'ly winds and 7 days with swell 2ft or above

2012
Aug 9 days with N'ly winds and 13 days with swell 2ft or above
Sept 8 days with N'ly winds and 16 days with swell 2ft or above
Oct 6 days with N'ly winds and 9 days with swell 2ft or above

So based on the above, I'd summarise with August 2012 was below average, September 2012 was above average and October 2012 is about average at present (noting the anomaly with October 2010 pumping straight east swell for the first 15 days).

What about some interaction terms between swell and wind direction?
Dummy variables for weekends? Or in my case, Wednesdays and Fridays.
Some sort of measure of whether the swell is consistent, or whether it has morning sickness?

Pedants and engineers, the lot of you.

You can't combine SEQ and Northern NSW, Don. Pick a location.

Oh, and hats off to Dirty Dog for a decent first post.

Am I the only one who enjoys northerly wind swells? For me it means lots of fun little peaky ramps, spreads the crowd etc.

south swells = close outs/limited options.

Thanks Alakaboo.. Previously carpark king but had log in issues..