RealSurf Surfers' Forum

I think there might be some swell on it's way to SA and Vicco

they "rekon" 15 - 20ft at cape otway and south oz border , meanwhile wolamai 10ft and surf coast 8ft

Saw it on the news, just about choked over dinner... its so tight and huge!

Nick-W wrote:Saw it on the news, just about choked over dinner... its so tight and huge!

haha wat were u eatin for dindins?it must have been really huge to be that tight and make you choke.

It was just sausages...

Nick-W wrote:It was just sausages...

SSR come around for dinner? :?

This low is spectacular 60-70knt winds within 200nm of centre, 45-60 within 350nm.

Looks like it will be biggest on the SE coast, pitty there will be a fresh to strong sw flow but a few protected spots will be allright, east coast of KI maybe Definatly the possibility of a few 30ft rouges down the SE i reckon.

I love how bom have very high to phenomenal seas...phenomenal is the highest rating u can get on sea heights I love to see what a phenomenal sea would look like

Edit it moved to the SE slower than forecast yesterday and considering the strongest winds are on the western quadrent (forcast more north quadrent tonite) looks like a ton of swell should hit the Eyre peninsula, it will be really south direction tho. Swinging more south westerly as u head east and losing a little size till around the mid coorong where the westerly component will settle in and the size will go thru the roof all the way to the border.

You almost choked on a sausage....?? nothing suss!

On a more serious note, for those that might have missed the link in another topic, here is some good info on the 'Hurricane-style' system in the southern ocean...

http://www.swellnet.com.au/analysis/Fir ... 280307.php

Looks like a good time for surfers around the SA/Vicco border, pity about the winds but i'm sure you could find something a bit protected when there is that much swell around....

Looks very interesting and I love checking the weather charts and seeing how close the isobars are being squezzed

I bet you east coast guys wish you had a cyclone like this sitting off your coast , its crazy how you can see the centre of the low is at 969hPa and the 2 tropical cyclones on the east and west coasts only have centre pressures of 980hPa and 984hPa respectively

sounds top.

whens it hitting?

Its starting to hit now looking at the Cape Du Couedic wave buoy http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65030.shtml Will peak into tomorrow lunchtime/arvo I reckon.

Saturday morning is looking the goods for weekend warriors like myself in the more protected spots.

Geez Friday is looking good, do I dare pull the surfing sickie......?

Hatchman, given you'll be surfing western port and its best with the incoming tide you could maybw surf before and after work on Fri as that coincides with the tides. Late Thurs will be an option too. Should still be something left by Saturday morning around Pt Leo although winds are going onshore so it won't be clean.

SAsurfa wrote:Looks very interesting and I love checking the weather charts and seeing how close the isobars are being squezzed

I bet you east coast guys wish you had a cyclone like this sitting off your coast , its crazy how you can see the centre of the low is at 969hPa and the 2 tropical cyclones on the east and west coasts only have centre pressures of 980hPa and 984hPa respectively

Too true SAsurfa, but low pressure systems in the great australian bight getting way below 1000 hpa are pretty common. I'm not so sure this is a freak event at all, other than that it is pointing rather nicely up towards the South Oz coast.

969 is pretty low though, but in general the low pressure systems that pass underneath Australia can make the average cyclone look like a pretty tame event. I think the difference is that the cyclones are much more focussed and only cover a small area, possibly with higher wind speeds, but only near the very centre of the storm.

But the southern ocean lows can be as big as the continent. Tap into that power and we never need to burn any coal again.

oldman wrote:

SAsurfa wrote:Looks very interesting and I love checking the weather charts and seeing how close the isobars are being squezzed

I bet you east coast guys wish you had a cyclone like this sitting off your coast , its crazy how you can see the centre of the low is at 969hPa and the 2 tropical cyclones on the east and west coasts only have centre pressures of 980hPa and 984hPa respectively

Too true SAsurfa, but low pressure systems in the great australian bight getting way below 1000 hpa are pretty common. I'm not so sure this is a freak event at all, other than that it is pointing rather nicely up towards the South Oz coast.

969 is pretty low though, but in general the low pressure systems that pass underneath Australia can make the average cyclone look like a pretty tame event. I think the difference is that the cyclones are much more focussed and only cover a small area, possibly with higher wind speeds, but only near the very centre of the storm.

But the southern ocean lows can be as big as the continent. Tap into that power and we never need to burn any coal again.

It is pretty rare mainly due to the high core winds at such a southern lattitude

swellnet wrote: While a bombing low is defined as a drop in central pressure of 24hPa over 24 hours, a 'superbomb' or 'ultrabomb' takes into account the strength of the winds based on latitude, which is expressed in 'bergerons'. In order to upgrade the classification of a bombing low to a superbomb or ultrabomb, the intensification rate must be greater than 2 bergerons. "According to the official charts, this system comes in at 2.07 bergerons at 40 degrees south in the 24 hours ending 12UTC yesterday" said Stuart. There's a marked difference between bombing lows in the polar regions compared to the mid latitudes, with wind strengths in the polar regions usually exhibiting less strength (from a comparable pressure drop) due to the effects of latitude.

Checkout this 30 image sat close up, just look at that baby form http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.ht ... art=&stop=
let it load its worth it

SAsurfa wrote:Its starting to hit now looking at the Cape Du Couedic wave buoy http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65030.shtml Will peak into tomorrow lunchtime/arvo I reckon.

Currently 6-12 metres @ 10-16 seconds and still rising

oldman wrote:I'm not so sure this is a freak event at all, other than that it is pointing rather nicely up towards the South Oz coast.

It's the speed at which the low 'bombed', which makes it a freak event (see the article for more info on this). This is also what caused the extremely high wind speeds.

mmmm ... charter flight to Marion Bay maybe ... I am dreaming of course

thermalben wrote:It's the speed at which the low 'bombed', which makes it a freak event (see the article for more info on this). This is also what caused the extremely high wind speeds.

Thanks Ben. I was hoping you might pick up on that comment and enlighten me.