Jeffreys Bay Pro 2015

[MrMik]

Assuming that there are 226000 surfers in Australia, then there would need to be 15 to 16 shark attack related deaths per year in Australia to put the risk into the same order of magnitude as the risk of dying in a road traffic accident.

However, the number of surfers frequenting the area from Evans Head to Byron is much smaller than 226000, and the concentration of shark attacks in that area in the last 6 months changes the odds very significantly.

How many surfers should we assume to have spread the risk of the 2 fatal attacks in 6 months among themselves in this area?

If it's 2260 (i.e. 1% of all Australian surfers), then the annual mortality rate (assuming there will be 2 more deaths this year) would be 4 / 2260 = 177 / 100000 per year.

That means the risk of dying by shark attack is 25 times the risk of dying in a traffic accident for a surfer in that region. I guess this estimate should be within an order of magnitude of the real result, meaning the risk of dying in a surf related shark attack close to Lennox is currently 2.5 to 250 times higher than the risk of dying in a traffic accident.

That seems to explain why people feel a bit edgy. Anyone wearing seat belts? Does your car have air bags?

http://www.surfinglife.com.au/news/sl-n ... statistics
http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoin ... aries.aspx

[el rancho]

wouldn't it be ironic if Steve gave the all clear for a few big sharks to be hunted only for them to be turned into cat food.

[jimmy]

I'd like to know what a "real industry type" is ? That's a mingmong phrase if ever I've heard one.

[el rancho]

people who comment at the bottom of the articles. that's who I was talking about anyway.

[crabmeat thompson]

I'd like to know what a "real industry type" is ? That's a mingmong phrase if ever I've heard one.

and anyone who uses the word "stakeholders," needs a whole clenched fist up the bum too.

[crabmeat thompson]

Assuming that there are 226000 surfers in Australia, then there would need to be 15 to 16 shark attack related deaths per year in Australia to put the risk into the same order of magnitude as the risk of dying in a road traffic accident.

However, the number of surfers frequenting the area from Evans Head to Byron is much smaller than 226000, and the concentration of shark attacks in that area in the last 6 months changes the odds very significantly.

How many surfers should we assume to have spread the risk of the 2 fatal attacks in 6 months among themselves in this area?

If it's 2260 (i.e. 1% of all Australian surfers), then the annual mortality rate (assuming there will be 2 more deaths this year) would be 4 / 2260 = 177 / 100000 per year.

That means the risk of dying by shark attack is 25 times the risk of dying in a traffic accident for a surfer in that region. I guess this estimate should be within an order of magnitude of the real result, meaning the risk of dying in a surf related shark attack close to Lennox is currently 2.5 to 250 times higher than the risk of dying in a traffic accident.

That seems to explain why people feel a bit edgy. Anyone wearing seat belts? Does your car have air bags?

http://www.surfinglife.com.au/news/sl-n ... statistics
http://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoin ... aries.aspx

all the rainman mathematics in the world still misses the point.

people are using the roads – and dying on them – to earn income, feed families, attend education etc. ie necessities in living. surfers are being killed or injured, surfing. a completely, risky and frivolous, non-essential to life activity.

if it terrifies people, they best not go out there until the risk is gone.

[jimmy]

I'd like to know what a "real industry type" is ? That's a mingmong phrase if ever I've heard one.

and anyone who uses the word "stakeholders," needs a whole clenched fist up the bum too.

I'm calling you in 5 minutes, you stakeholder you.

[marauding mullet]

How close in do whales swim at Ballina/Byron? Like the general migratory group? Do they generally come in within 2k of the coast or closer. or are they out 8-10k?

I don't know about up there, but in the Newcastle, Port Stephens, Central Coast area whales come real close on the their way north. Like right into calm beaches to stop with their calves for a few hours, and sometimes only a hundred metres or so from the shore while travelling.
On the way south however, they seem to be further out, maybe 10 to 20 Kms, perhaps hitching a ride on the East Australian Current which is just starting to push South around then, but the EAC can only be felt at that distance from shore or further.

I fished offshore in a boat for 20 years in that entire coast and never noticed any relationship between whale migration season and shark numbers.

The only thing I did notice about shark numbers was that they seemed to increase a lot around Jan, Feb, March and April when the ocean is literally alive with Slimey Mackerel, Marlin, Tuna, Dolphin Fish that come south with the EAC.

[Drailed]

Central coast they come close... Like watching em breach and seeing barnacles close.

[crabmeat thompson]

I'd like to know what a "real industry type" is ? That's a mingmong phrase if ever I've heard one.

and anyone who uses the word "stakeholders," needs a whole clenched fist up the bum too.

I'm calling you in 5 minutes, you stakeholder you.

haha.

hope you have a good weekend mate!

[lostman]

these sydney work-a-daddies are tucked away safe and sound in their cubicles and are probably lucky to tea-bag around bronte for an hour on a weekend.

So "core"

I'd like to know what a "real industry type" is ?

Maurice Cole.. that's one who I was talking about anyway

[crabmeat thompson]

these sydney work-a-daddies are tucked away safe and sound in their cubicles and are probably lucky to tea-bag around bronte for an hour on a weekend.

So "core"

I'd like to know what a "real industry type" is ?

Maurice Cole.. that's one who I was talking about anyway

What's Maurice's take on it all?

[lostman]

Abit like you, he'd just had enough and gave some back. It was quite a funny to & fro actually

[crabmeat thompson]

Yeah Maurice is a bit of a legend. Got alotta time for him

[The Mighty Sunbird]

So is surfing now officially more dangerous than skydiving??
No fcucken way I'm going skydiving. Too dangerous.

[Nick Carroll]

this thread is going TOTY

you're on the money there toots

[bomboraa]

What will be interesting is if the far north coast shark situation continues for some time. I'll bring up Sydney's "summer of the shark" again: Several attacks in just a few months. Fishos reporting noahs all over the place. Same concerns, same debate generated.
Yet Sydney's not seen the same situation since. Not because sharks were culled. It's just that, for many reasons, some well known, some partly understood, some still mysteries, different parts of our coast become focal points of marine life for relatively brief but intense periods. The switch gets turned on. The prefect storm of natural variables. It's always been so. Then the salty house of cards collapses. And is erected elsewhere.
Being in the middle of one of these hot spots brings obviously increased risks for surfers, but calling it the new normal for any specific location will most likely be premature. But it may not be foolish to believe these brief aggregations of marine life are becoming more dangerous because of increasing numbers of a shark always drawn to them.

[Nick Carroll]

How close in do whales swim at Ballina/Byron? Like the general migratory group? Do they generally come in within 2k of the coast or closer. or are they out 8-10k?

I don't know about up there, but in the Newcastle, Port Stephens, Central Coast area whales come real close on the their way north. Like right into calm beaches to stop with their calves for a few hours, and sometimes only a hundred metres or so from the shore while travelling.
On the way south however, they seem to be further out, maybe 10 to 20 Kms, perhaps hitching a ride on the East Australian Current which is just starting to push South around then, but the EAC can only be felt at that distance from shore or further.

I fished offshore in a boat for 20 years in that entire coast and never noticed any relationship between whale migration season and shark numbers.

The only thing I did notice about shark numbers was that they seemed to increase a lot around Jan, Feb, March and April when the ocean is literally alive with Slimey Mackerel, Marlin, Tuna, Dolphin Fish that come south with the EAC.

Yeah well here in Syd they seem to mostly travel between 3 and 6km offshore and move pretty fast on the way north and a bit slower on the way south. A very rare one or two will come in a lot closer, whether it's because they're sick or calving or whatever I don't know. It always vaguely freaks me out when people insist on dashing out to whales when they're inshore; it's like they're plugging straight into a chain of life about which they know nothing.

I am not sure if as a fisherman you would have seen a whole lot of evidence of the great white shark migration, I imagine you would have been seeing a lot of other kinds of shark, mako and bronze and the like, but a lot of them might have gone missing when there are big tigers or white sharks around. The white sharks along Australia's east coast come from spawning grounds off eastern Victoria and Bass Strait and follow the migration all the way up as far as Tonga; they cash in on the awesome feeding opportunities, cleaning up dead whales and calves out of the generic mass of living tissue moving up and down through that period each year. Maybe the white shark population has remained static as the humpback population has exploded but that would seem to defy how food chains work.