Huey, deliver this ENE swell and all will be forgiven!!

[barstardos]

After a truly woeful December for swell, it looks like we are heading into a period of sustained ENE swell action.
with swell slowly building from mid next week we should have pulsing (and occasionally pumping) ENE swell for the foreseeable future. GFS has got all excited about a low developing off SE Qld over the weekend but this is unlikely, BoM and ECMWF are going for a broad low across the Coral Sea developing a sustained fetch that could deliver at least a week or more of quality ENE swell for the entire east coast.
Remember this time last year a similar system turned in to 6 weeks of nonstop swell!
Happy 2009 everyone!!

[Donweather]

GFS has got all excited about a low developing off SE Qld over the weekend but this is unlikely

Curious as to why you think this may be unlikely B??

Don't get me wrong, I think these low pressure systems close to the coast are a hoax and I'm crossing everything (fingers, toes etc) hoping EC comes to fruition as it looks to produce way better QUALITY waves than GFS, which will likely have junky windswell at all but the protected points (in SE Qld I'm referring).

It's just that I've found in the past GFS to be reasonably reliable when it comes to the 0-3 day forecasts.

[barstardos]

Hi Don, yes GFS has been pretty good on the short term stuff - once it has started happening!! In this case the low has not formed yet and all the other models have gone off it. Importantly the BoM have dropped the formation of a deepening closed low from their forecasts. I reckon the broader low with tradewinds is a much more fun setup anyway. We are pretty well guarenteed surf for the next 2 weeks now. Will be interesting to see Swellnet's reading of the situation because its still very variable

[bohdidontsurf]

Yeah nice, next week when I am back at work, lol. Looks like I will be sick for the later part of next week. I can feel it coming on right about now.

[Donweather]

Hi Don, yes GFS has been pretty good on the short term stuff - once it has started happening!! In this case the low has not formed yet and all the other models have gone off it.

Good point.

Will be interesting to see Swellnet's reading of the situation because its still very variable

Yeah Steve Shearer and I have just been discussing this in the weather and surf forecasting thread and I wished Steve good luck in preparing his forecast tonight for Sunday and Monday.

Could easily be 3-4ft or 6-8ft depending on which scenario pans out over the weekend (in SE Qld and Nth NSW).

[sparky_12]

shame the wind looks like ASS!

[Jimi]

When does the World Junior Champs start? Looks like NN could be cracking for the event

[barstardos]

As mentioned elswehere, GFS was tripping - but the result is probably better for most of us.
Most of the models are now agreeing that a broad Low in the coral sea will squeeze up against a high over NZ by mid this week, and strongest by saturday.
The end result is a slow build of NE windswell, ENE Tradewind swell and next weekend (10th/11th) a proper East groundswell too. Winds in Sydney might be ok much of the time with light Easteries with some crapful SE winds on Thursday.
It may not be epic but it will be very Surfable

[Donweather]

Yeah, best to get in before the SE change arrives me thinks.....although as you've indicated B, this is likely to be before the peak of the better quality groundswell arrives. There's always the opportunity to fight it out on the points (for SE Qld) once the SE winds do push through, but based on the images I saw from the weekend up here, it looked stupendous with the crowds.

Although in saying that I did score some lovely little clean 3ft lefthanders (suprisingly) yesterday arvo at a certain location over the border, with the sweep keeping the crowds spread out.

My money is on some open beaches mid week this week up this way, just before the arrival of the SE change.

I'm also liking the looks of this girl out in the Tropical South Pacific this weekend......which should send in some even longer period stuff later into the following week (14th-16th Jan.......probably more so for us SE Qlders given the swell shadow of NZ).

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