El Nino best for Sydney Surf ?

[aaronn]

was it just coincidence that the wind and swell was better in 2006-07 in Sydney when el nino conditions prevailed?

[evow]

You can put this to practice towards the end of the year again. Majorty of observation heading to El Nino conditions now and models suggest trend will keep going.

[Donweather]

Don't count your El-Nino chickens just yet?

But I'm also highly interested in what effect El-Nino has on the Northern Pacific winter with respect to swell generation for the equatorial western Pacific region? Anyone have any thoughts/opinions/previous experiences they'd like to share?

[oldman]

was it just coincidence that the wind and swell was better in 2006-07 in Sydney when el nino conditions prevailed?

No, no and no!


Edit; that answer was in relation to your existence aarron, and the connection between el nino and better surf.

Was it a coincidence, yes, yes, yes.

Now Fruck off you weirdo, or at least develop a 3 word introduction to your new topics.

Turd!

[sandfly]

All I know is I am sick of the F#$^&**@#! rain in Sydney at the moment, bring on the El Nino!!

[Surfin Turf]

was it just coincidence that the wind and swell was better in 2006-07 in Sydney when el nino conditions prevailed?

I remember the winter of 2007 very well ... I had 4.5 months off work which coincided with one of the best winters for surf on Sydney's northern beaches that I can remember ... heaps of big (for Sydney) surf, great conditions, and I happily wrecked a number of boards that winter ... and I remember that it was dry and it wasn't a very cold winter either ... there is always a price ... :?

[Nick Carroll]

2006-7 was a very shallow El Nino; pretty much neutral really. 2007-8, when the surf went crazy between June and late July, was slightly tipped toward La Nina.

Typically, strong El Nino phases coincide with shitty surf periods along the Australian east coast. Surface water is the western Pacific is slightly cooled which puts a damper on a lot of easterly tradewind swells; the pressure gradient relaxes. The ECL count is also historically a lot lower in El Nino phases, as is tropical cyclone activity in the Oz region.

Strong La Nina phases typically coincide with a lot of surf along eastern Australia, with stronger tradewinds bands and warmer waters setting up good conditions for cyclones, ECLs and such.

None of this discounts the possibility of one-off swell events or a bit of gold popping up in any given year.

[Donweather]

And what about the Northern Pacific Winter Nick? Will we get gold later this year and into early next?

[eMpowered]

Ah the upper Northern Beaches today. Great Northern lines, Dumping on.... Well nothing really. God I miss a good point break.

[eMpowered]

Hey Dino, I have an Idea

Howabout we (All Northside Realsurfers) hit the bower. No bbq, just a plethora of Realsurfers taking over the Bower, Just like the 90's

[Donweather]

Hey Nick, I just read an article that's indicating a possible El nino developing later this year and into early next year similar to the severe one that struck back in 1997.

Don't suppose if you can recall if locations such as Hawaii et al were pumping (more so than usual) during the winter of 97?

[Nick Carroll]

Hey Nick, I just read an article that's indicating a possible El nino developing later this year and into early next year similar to the severe one that struck back in 1997.

Don't suppose if you can recall if locations such as Hawaii et al were pumping (more so than usual) during the winter of 97?

Late 1997 and early 1998 was the last real big El Nino. (It's been a quiet decade for the little boy.)

In the Hawaiian winter of 97-98, pretty much every big wave record was broken. That was the year when Bradshaw and co rode Outer Logs at 40-50 feet, when Mavericks was truly busted up at 40' plus (and a set closed out the whole of Half Moon Bay -- onlookers couldn't see much change out of 100', and the super rescue chick Shawn Alladio, out on freelance practice duty at Mavs, actually outran the thing on her juiced up superski), Taylor Knox paddled into a wave later estimated at 52' at Todos Santos, and the surf was too big to hold the Eddie event.

The El Ninos of that dimension in modern surfing times (1968-9 and 1982-3) have both been absolute bellringers in the northern hemi. In 69 Greg Noll rode his much vaunted closeout at Makaha, in '82 big wave surfing was basically reincarnated at Waimea Bay through the likes of Bradshaw, Richie Schmidt, Roger Erickson, Foo etc.

Those winters are why a big El Nino is accepted by guys like Sean Collins, Pat Caldwell etc as a prima facie season forecast of big surf in the northern hemisphere. Though you've always gotta add the caveat that seasons and storms are different things, and you can't tell simply as a result of an approaching El Nino what individudal storm events might bring to any coast ... you just get an indication of likelihood.

[oldman]

Don't suppose if you can recall if locations such as Hawaii et al were pumping (more so than usual) during the winter of 97?

Nick seems to have covered Hawaii well. Certainly the entire west coast of the americas lights up with big storms, significant rain events, wild weather.

[Nick Carroll]

Nick if i may, do you think El nino effected the indian ocean aswell in 98?

The water was extremely cold in java that year for a while...People were wearing steamers sometimes and the winds were more shifty than usual (SW a lot)

dunno.

I haven't read up enough about it but there's been a fair bit of press about climatologists making connections between shifts in Indian Ocean water temps -- what they've been calling the "Indian Ocean dipole" -- that coincide with some effects thought to have been of El Nino type origin.

Who knows, maybe those years thought to have been mega-El Ninos saw a shift in both ENSO and the dipole.

The waters of the Indian and Pacific mingle through the se asian island passages, part of the deep oceanic conveyor belt supercurrent that moves vast quantities of deep-sea water all around the planet, and that some scientists think may be part of the trigger system for Ice Ages. But I dunno if any of that water would be surfacing near Java.

[Donweather]

Thanks Nick. Greatly appreciated. You certainly are a living almanac!!!

So what's your thought's on the upcoming North Pacific winter....reckon we'll see some solid waves (ie El Nino is coming??).

Some reports link the previous Southern Hemi winter to the upcoming Northern Hemi winter. That is, with El Nino pending, if the southern hemi winter pumps out some solid swells then they believe the northern hemi winter will also pump. So in saying that, I don't suppose anyone remembers what the southern hemi winter was like in 1997 (ie WA, Indo, SA, Vicco??).

[steve shearer]

Don, i drove across the country in winter 97.
Mostly conditions were considered mild ie the storm track stayed south and the waves were unreal through South Oz (though I couldn''t surf for 6 weeks after going headfirst into the reef at Blacks) and Margs.
Up north the season pumped well into Sep/Oct but storminess wasn't a feature of the season.

Don't know how reliable that link is as a forecasting tool.(southern hemi/northern hemi).
Also this Nino event is still considered marginal(and yet to form) compared to the ones Nick were referring to....also some form of El Nino has almost been the defacto base state of the Pacific basin over the last decade.

I honestly think there's no susbstitute for a bit of flexibility....ie you can see a couple of weeks out at least how the storm track/jet stream is shaping up.

But on the balance of probabilities......

[oldman]

I haven't read up enough about it but there's been a fair bit of press about climatologists making connections between shifts in Indian Ocean water temps -- what they've been calling the "Indian Ocean dipole" -- that coincide with some effects thought to have been of El Nino type origin.

Who knows, maybe those years thought to have been mega-El Ninos saw a shift in both ENSO and the dipole.

Seems extremely likely, to my uneducated eye, that they will find other factors that were connected with ENSO that made 97 such a big El Nino year. I would be very surprised if there wasn't some correlation between the IO dipole and the likely severity of the El nino/la nina phenomena, and I expect they will find a group of other major inputs to the system that made the 97/98 El nino such a big one.

Current research has the IO dipole as being a significant input into how much rain occurs in south eastern australia. It has been noticeable that with a fairly benign el nino/la nina for the last few years, the Murray River has had less input than ever recorded. East coast generally has had good rain over the same period.

[steve shearer]

[quote="oldman"]

Current research/quote]

Care to name your source Olds?

Not meaning to disrupt the flow because that all makes sense but just interested.