EL NINO - LA NINA?

[marcus]

Gday guys
Was listening to those yanks on down the line radio talking about an elnino period coming on, and how that means waves for the US west coast...whoohoo for them.
(may have been an old podcast)

but doesn't that mean crappy waves for us?

also, in high school i thought we were taught the elnino lanina cycles last about 10 years, why does it seam everyone's talking about them changing every 4-5 years.

also, do elnino cycles really effect us that much?
cheers in advance for your answers.

[marcus]

lol, that was a crap idea for a thread.

[oldman]

I think we have just gone la nina marcus, although the real weather guys can confirm.

10 year cycles, no. It moves around at it's own pace. Seems to be flipping around on shorter cycles now, but it's also season dependent as well.

The science is really not deep on this. Relatively new and the cycles don't always result in the weather following suit, which is why they say 'el nino is normally associated with a return to dry conditions' or vice versa. 'Associated with' is the operative clause, rather than 'a direct cause of'.

But others on here are much more knowledgeable on the detail.

[alakaboo]

not a bad idea for a thread, just not one that's easy to answer.

check out some of these threads:
http://forum.realsurf.com/forum/viewtop ... so#p353684

http://forum.realsurf.com/forum/viewtop ... so#p353075

http://forum.realsurf.com/forum/viewtop ... so#p356649

http://forum.realsurf.com/forum/viewtop ... so#p364805

as Olds said, we've just gone La Nina. ABC news has the SOI index one night a week on the weather, they discuss it a little.
it does appear to affect our rainfall quite a bit, can't answer on the surf, except to say that warmer water appears to produce better waves on the east coast.
some research from UNSW suggested that the Indian Ocean has as much influence on our terrestrial weather as the Pacific, there's a similar pattern to ENSO in the Indian. Think Olds posted a link to some research in one of the threads above.

[Nick Carroll]

^^^the rainfall during La Nina is often derived from strong onshore easterly air streams, which are associated with weather systems that cause increased surf along the east coast.

The "magnifier" is thought to be the swing of what they call the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is a measure of variations in air pressure on either side of the Indian Ocean. The dipole can magnify the monsoon wave that sweeps across northern Australia and may well help trigger tropical cyclones in the SW Pacific. (It can also do the opposite. When it does the opposite in conjunction with a strong El Nino event, that's when you get those sadistic droughts across inland NSW and the SW. They reckon the dipole has at least as much to do with endemic drought in Australia as El Nino.)

But fcuk, who really knows. puurri would lecture us about traditional knowledge were he still around, trouble is traditional knowledge doesn't take surf into account.

[marcus]

cheers guys for your answers.

[Donweather]

We are currently transitioning from an El Nino into a La Nina, with most leading global forecasts pointing at La Nina being in full swing by August 2010 and remaining in place at least until early 2011.

For me, that means looking elsewhere from my usual Pacific Ocean jaunts for my 2011 Surfari.

[Nick Carroll]

Watch this. I am gonna walk out on a shaky limb and the come-down could be pretty funny.

Eastern Australia is gonna see a major swell event in the next 10-12 days from a long NE fetch formed between a high centred over NZ and a trough or actual low pressure system out in the northern Tasman.

This wildly off season scenario can be tied directly to the ENSO shift and while it may not be repeated in a mega hurry, spells interesting things for the coming summer.

[alakaboo]

Nick I assume you mean it is atypical for the orientation, not the size?

Based on nothing more than a sense of something unfulfilled in this winter, I wouldn't be at all surprised if you turn out to be right.

[oldman]

This wildly off season scenario can be tied directly to the ENSO shift and while it may not be repeated in a mega hurry, spells interesting things for the coming summer.

Being the eternal optimist, I'm inclined to think that the lack of big winter swells may just give way to a lack of a spring long flat spell.

Been interesting that there has been 3 lows form off the coast in the last few weeks, but they were unusually high and far away from the coast. I'm thinking that is the diff this winter so far, if they were forming just on/off the coast, that's what we typically call a winter swell producing system.

[Donweather]

Eastern Australia is gonna see a major swell event in the next 10-12 days from a long NE fetch formed between a high centred over NZ and a trough or actual low pressure system out in the northern Tasman.

This wildly off season scenario can be tied directly to the ENSO shift and while it may not be repeated in a mega hurry, spells interesting things for the coming summer.

EC has been progging something along these lines for the last few days now in it's extended long range forecasts, although I'm not sure if the word "major" comes to mind looking at these charts.

I thought you didn't like the EC model Nick?

[Nick Carroll]

I don't care about the long range prog charts, they are never right, especially on switcheroo years when ENSO changes tack.

just going on the smell.

[Donweather]

just going on the smell.

That sounds like a new model I haven't heard of!!!

[Donweather]

Whilst not "major" I am liking the looks of the setup progged out near the dateline in about 8-10 days time!!!!

[steve shearer]

Watch this. I am gonna walk out on a shaky limb and the come-down could be pretty funny.

Eastern Australia is gonna see a major swell event in the next 10-12 days from a long NE fetch formed between a high centred over NZ and a trough or actual low pressure system out in the northern Tasman.

This wildly off season scenario can be tied directly to the ENSO shift and while it may not be repeated in a mega hurry, spells interesting things for the coming summer.

You missed on that one but it's felt like it's been trying to do that all winter. It certainly was a reasonable call.

This next one looks more robust and money.

The NE infeed into a parallel series of surface troughs tied to a deep low moving in from the bight looks like it could push up some solid NE swell for NSW.

[Donweather]

The NE infeed into a parallel series of surface troughs tied to a deep low moving in from the bight looks like it could push up some solid NE swell for NSW.

Don't know about the swell at the moment, but what I do know is that it's absolutely shitting down with rain here in Brisvegas at the moment. If this intensity keeps up, might need the ark in the morning!!!

[tiger]

Most of the rain has missed us today. But it has just started belting down now, on the top end of the Sunny coast.

Looking forward to tomorrow arvo. Love these NE windswell events, with the clean-out westerly.

[Donweather]

Gonna be tough paddling out the back in these current conditions. Head of the fetch is just offshore so its a sizey relentless swell (ie no lulls between sets) and given the low low tide expected this afteernoon, that won't be helping the situation either.