September

[SAsurfa]

Ah Oldman, that low that formed yesterday is part of a greater run on continual activity through the central Tasman, keeping east facing beaches topped up with fun peaky waves over the next few days and into the weekend.

That other low to the SE looks to direct most of its winds over land before quickly moving out into the SW Tasman during Wednesday night (which wasn't the case when I prepared the forecast for Syd) and quicky moving to the east. So this swell looks to only provide a short-lived pulse of southerly swell for south facing beaches on Thursday arvo and Friday before fading into Saturday.

So yeah I know the low you're talking about now but I find if fairly insignificant in the whole scheme of things (i.e. the easterly swell on offer).

[Donweather]

Oldman, Craig's correct. I was referring to the compact little low in the Tasman yesterday arvo. It had a compact tiny fetch of strong to gale force E'ly winds on it's southern flank....something which the models didn't pick up and hence this should generate something that sneaks under the radar, however it looks to peak this evening so all is lost anyway.

And as Craig has alluded too, the quikscat data is refreshing itself, hence the image (12.5km res) I was looking at is no longer available on the current data page

[oldman]

Thanks guys,

I miss a day or two here or there looking at the charts, but I was never counting on much from that system. It over-achieved based on my observations.

That low formed late and moved south very quickly according to the BOM hindcast, and maybe explained much more size in Sydney yesterday than expected.

The low over SE oz now looks like sending in a longer period of south swell, provided it gets off the coast sooner rather than later, hopefully enough to keep the swell up until the east/nor east swell takes over. No doubt SAS will tell me why I'm wrong there.

It had a compact tiny fetch of strong to gale force E'ly winds on it's southern flank....

I was watching that system, it was a major bit of energy all heading south and of no value to us. Must have turned for about 15 minutes. I can't get too interested in something that is going to send swell in for such a short period.

It's a struggle to get a flaming surf in when it is coming in for days on end.

[oldman]

So yeah I know the low you're talking about now but I find if fairly insignificant in the whole scheme of things (i.e. the easterly swell on offer).

Can't quite understand the prominence you have given to Sunday's fly-by-night low, and not thinking this is as significant.

....something which the models didn't pick up and hence this should generate something that sneaks under the radar, however it looks to peak this evening so all is lost anyway.

So does anyone know if this happened? My observations, at sand rather than WAMS level, was that the swell peaked on Sunday and dropped since, but I didn't see it Monday arvo.

Latest run seems to have the east fetch much less aligned than yesterday, although I note that it is one of the runs that I can trust less, based on Ben's advice.

Other charts still lined up for long range east fetch?

[Donweather]

Other charts still lined up for long range east fetch?

Biggest question is though will that cnut of an island out there bisect the fetch into two

[oldman]

Biggest question is though will that cnut of an island out there bisect the fetch into two

I've often thought that NZ was in a knut of a position for us, but over the past two months it has blocked a spectacular run of swells to all parts of the east coast,

Can't remember seeing so many great swells stopped by those bloody islands.

I've been thinking Don (not just a pretty face!) that it might be hard to sink NZ, but it's a skinny little thing, if we could just turn it on it's edge so that it was pointing say on a NW/SE plane, or maybe a little more to WNW/ESE plane, then the actual damage it will do to our swell window will be minimised.

Just need to get a working party together.

[Nick Carroll]

Apparently it is slowly moving away from us.

Just need to wait about 60-70 million years.

[Donweather]

Apparently it is slowly moving away from us.

Just need to wait about 60-70 million years.

Didn't it actually move closer to us by about 1-2 inches in the last recent earthquake they had?

[Nick Carroll]

Fcuk! OK wait 71 million years then.

[Donweather]

Hmmmm....looks like all eyes will be on the sand formations in particular bays come mid next week!!!!

And I'll say it again....it is Spring yeah?

[Donweather]

Anyone like to comment on the divergence between GFS and EC for the swell producing low pressure system to our east over this weekend? They were aligning quite well up until this morning!!!

[Nick Carroll]

Much as I love Swellnet I think Craig's forecast re that east swell is about a day and a half early and a dollar short.

Maybe he'll change his tune today.

[thermalben]

Actually Nick, Craig's currently on his way to Indo for a couple of weeks of barrels. So, I've updated the forecast this afternoon - I slightly pulled back the arrival time, but only by a half day - we've got two separate pulses from the E/NE, of which I reckon we'll see the largest pulse peak overnight on Tuesday. Therefore, in my eyes Wednesday is the pick of the forecast period, as winds should be light and variable early morning. Main concern for me is the inconsistency, as it was generated a long way away, and the fetch wasn't especially long.

[Donweather]

I'm gonna chase me some forerunners tomorrow morning....try and beat the crew as everyone is talking about Wed!!!

From the quikscat passes, the fetch seemed to develop (albeit compact at that stage) a little earlier than anticipated/forecast?

[Nick Carroll]

Actually Nick, Craig's currently on his way to Indo for a couple of weeks of barrels. So, I've updated the forecast this afternoon - I slightly pulled back the arrival time, but only by a half day - we've got two separate pulses from the E/NE, of which I reckon we'll see the largest pulse peak overnight on Tuesday. Therefore, in my eyes Wednesday is the pick of the forecast period, as winds should be light and variable early morning. Main concern for me is the inconsistency, as it was generated a long way away, and the fetch wasn't especially long.

arrrgh it's the Man with Two Brains.

reckon a lot of the fun one might possibly have from this swell will rely on where you are. Swells from this particular angle and hotspot seem really affected by offshore bottom contours. I mean...all of 'em are, but these ones respond differently to the more typical se longer interval swells. And in central and southern NSW, swells from the ENE are often generated a lot closer to shore than these ones, so they respond differently to bottom contour anyway.

So some beaches are 4'+ and others within cooee are 2'.

When a swell does come from that hotspot with a bang, it's the best thing in east coast Aussie surfing -- they don't do what you'd think at first glance, and they're really worth a lot of hind casting, study etc.

[Donweather]

Swells from this particular angle and hotspot seem really affected by offshore bottom contours. I mean...all of 'em are, but these ones respond differently to the more typical se longer interval swells. And in central and southern NSW, swells from the ENE are often generated a lot closer to shore than these ones, so they respond differently to bottom contour anyway.

So some beaches are 4'+ and others within cooee are 2'.

Hmmmmm, I wonder if this had anything to do with the fact why my favourite SC beachie was a hoax this morning at 1-2ft+ at best?

It really sucks not having a wave buoy reading up the SC at the moment. I woke up this morning at 4:15am and checked the Southport Wave Buoy and all signs pointed to a rise in swell height and period so I thought righto we're on this morning. Boy was I dissapointed running over the dunes this morning at first light!!!

[Donweather]

Well I guess it had to happen sooner or later.....I can hear a particular fat lady about to sing very loudly!!!

[Trev]

^^^^ Nooooo