J Bay

[Donweather]

Looks like J Bay might just cop some serious swell around this time next week (and beyond) if the current charts come off.

Just hope the devil wind doesn't arrive with the solid south swell.

Anyone know who's forecasting the event?

[Donweather]

Anyone reckon Mr Slater can pull off back to back victory's? J Bay is one of his most favourite waves and he usually performs superbly there. He reads that wave like only a select few can. Fanning, or even Taj for that matter is another one who knows when put the pedal to the metal and race the supertubes section.

Gosh I hope the latest GFS charts for there come off.....could be all time epic come Monday/Tuesday there next week......4.5-5m SW/S groundswells with periods in the 12-15 second range and W'ly winds come Monday, with a large high pressure system sitting straight over the bay come Tuesday, hence light and variable winds!!!

Would be good to see the earlier rounds run Thursday/Friday in the small stuff (although not sure they'll do this given the forecast for early next week), with the later Rds/Qtrs/Semis/Final run on either Monday/Tuesday (assuming the latest GFS comes to fruition).

[Nick Carroll]

JBay is not what she seems. A much greater angle than you'd imagine.

A sw-s groundswell will not affect the point very much at all and w winds are almost devil-angle.

She really needs a s-se swell at that interval. Plus ssw winds.

You've gotta watch the back side of the low, if it stops at a longitude level with Madagascar and aims straight upward at Port Elizabeth, then you've got a shot at something really solid and big for Supertubes etc.

But if the general tilt of the energy is westerly...extremely inconsistent and about half the size you'd imagine.

[Donweather]

So a SW/S swell at J Bay is like a S'ly swell in SE Qld then Nick.....sailing right past? If this is the case, then I'm struggling a little with your comment about W winds being devil winds? If she needs a S/SE swell to get in there, then by my logic, she must be facing SE, or even E.....and therefore, wouldn't a W wind be semi offshore?

[Donweather]

Hmmmm, I see what you mean Nick. I just checked it out on Google Earth.....she would require either a larger period S'ly groundswell or more so as you've pointed out a S/SE swell to really fire.

So in saying that, it doesn't look like they'll have much on the cards until perhaps Monday afternoon, but more so into Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, when the swell has more of a S'ly component to it.

Wednesday looks damned good with a reasonably acute S'ly groundswell and light and variable winds on the cards. Can't really see 4 days of good swell though, so they may have to look at doubling up the heats in the water to get the best of the conditions early-mid this week and wrap up the comp??