Santa's Present

[don.weather]

Looks like someone's been asking Santa for a nice Xmas present.

We may just have our first tropical low of the season come early-mid next week. Presently doesn't look like it has the intensity of a tropical cyclone, but it's certainly encouraging to see nonetheless.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/in ... 8&focus=mh

[Butts]

don.w it certainly looks likethere COULD be some potential BUT.........

I reckon any swell that comes with it (for you) will most likely have horrendous onshores associated

Santa, I want another south swell, just like the last one but its gotta last longer then 48 friggin hours

[Revolution]

Well this swell wont be coming now someone started a realsurf topic on it

[Donweather]

I reckon any swell that comes with it (for you) will most likely have horrendous onshores associated

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Butts, it all depends on where the young lady forms and then tracks. But going on EC (and even the latest GFS runs), the peak of this swell wont arrive until probably in the wee hours of Friday morning, perhaps some forerunners very late on Thursday arvo (this is all next week...Christmas and all).

And looking at the long range EC runs, winds don't look that unfavourable.......moderate NE/N for Thursday arvo (we're getting very used to these winds in SE Qld now!!!!) and possibly moderate E/NE for Friday (although we're seriously stretching the friendship trying to predict local synoptic winds this 8-9 days in advance). I agree, these aren't overly fantastic, but outlooks for the local winds, bu I wouldn't call them horrendous as the strengths don't look to strong, hence there's still a 50/50 chance of offshores early morning.

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[Butts]

Don.w please don't use fancy charts, they confuse me

Based on "my" data sources, cause I like raw data, I'm calling peak of swell
Monday morning will be the peak but STRONG SE winds (15+ knots).
Tuesday swell still hanging in there but the winds will be more ESE-E and still strong.
Wednesday, fading swell but winds abate somewhat and turn to the ENE.

BUT..................there is a few days between now and then, LOTS can change.
I could be wrong

Hope it turns out for you, we look like getting a "little" bit of my request Xmas present this weekend :?

[Trev]

I can't remember the last time there wasn't decent, consistent surf between Christmas and New Year.
And with good days so few and far between lately, I won't even complain about the crowds.
for the first hour.

[mustkillmulloway]

i'll pay $100 for a set wave over head high

[Trev]

Hey.
don_weather has become donweather.
first post.
Must have been too confusing for him with that other forum.

[Donweather]

Based on "my" data sources, cause I like raw data, I'm calling peak of swell
Monday morning will be the peak but STRONG SE winds (15+ knots).
Tuesday swell still hanging in there but the winds will be more ESE-E and still strong.
Wednesday, fading swell but winds abate somewhat and turn to the ENE.

Ya see there Butts, we're talking about two different swell events. I'm talking about the swell that's gonna arrive around Boxing Day and you're talking about the swell that's gonna arrive on Monday/Tuesday of next week. Chalk and cheese for us SE Qlders.

And yes, it looks like yet another groundhog day for you fellas later this weekend and into early next week. What's doing with all these goddamn lows forming off the NSW coast......once a week now for the last upteen weeks!!!

Send some up here ya bastards!!

[don.weather]

Hey.
don_weather has become donweather.
first post.
Must have been too confusing for him with that other forum.

Perhaps there's two of us!!!!

[steve shearer]

Still a helluva lot of uncertainty wrt model runs and location of convective activity in CS.
Wouldn't be surprised to see low form much closer to the coast (ie off Fraser).
SST's are outrageous in the CS right now. Very tricky forecasts, even short/medium term forecasts are seriously dicey.
(um.....anyone remember Odette?)
I'd say keep watching closely.
Also depends how quickly any system gets dragged SE by uppers.
Still, some form of E swell is highly likely.
Just to have some ridging up the QLD coast will be a welcome development.
By the way Don...did you happen to notice any ultra long range groundswell from the North Pac in the water on the sunny coast?
Steve

[Donweather]

Steve, I was up the SC on Thursday 11 December and didn't notice any super long range N/NE groundswell in the water. It was puss, onshore and weak windswell. Although I didn't hang around for 30 minutes to see if the super long range sets were there? In fact I didn't even get wet that morning.....drove straight back home to Brisvegas.

I'm wondering however if this could well be the explanation for the larger SC swell we saw in the water on Monday/Tuesday (when compared to the dismal wave heights along the Goldy). I know the wave buoys weren't showing the swell direction from the N, but perhaps it snuck under the radar, and combined with the S groundswell, creating some larger waves hitting the shoreline? It's a long shot I know, but I've got nothing else up my sleeve to explain why the SC was certainly bigger than the GC earlier this week, when clearly if the predominant swell was a highly acute Sly groundswell it should have been at least half of the size along the GC (which is normally the case) particularly down the southern end of the SC (which is where the Swellnet reports are taken from).

Can anyone on here (Trev??) substantiate the wave heights on Monday/Tuesday up the SC and what direction the swell appeared to be from?

[SAsurfa]

Don't worry about your coast boys, looks like there may be a bit of a belated christmas/boxing day pressie for us over this way..

[Donweather]

Yeah I saw that SA.......it's supposed to be summer isn't it? What's doing with that little puppy forming down your way this time of year?

[Trev]

Steve, I was up the SC on Thursday 11 December and didn't notice any super long range N/NE groundswell in the water. It was puss, onshore and weak windswell. Although I didn't hang around for 30 minutes to see if the super long range sets were there? In fact I didn't even get wet that morning.....drove straight back home to Brisvegas.

I'm wondering however if this could well be the explanation for the larger SC swell we saw in the water on Monday/Tuesday (when compared to the dismal wave heights along the Goldy). I know the wave buoys weren't showing the swell direction from the N, but perhaps it snuck under the radar, and combined with the S groundswell, creating some larger waves hitting the shoreline? It's a long shot I know, but I've got nothing else up my sleeve to explain why the SC was certainly bigger than the GC earlier this week, when clearly if the predominant swell was a highly acute Sly groundswell it should have been at least half of the size along the GC (which is normally the case) particularly down the southern end of the SC (which is where the Swellnet reports are taken from).

Can anyone on here (Trev??) substantiate the wave heights on Monday/Tuesday up the SC and what direction the swell appeared to be from?

Unfortunately I missed the early on Monday but a couple of my mates who had the first hour to themselves were raving about it (as you do). General consensus is head high at M, with a bit more on the open beaches. By 11am when I got there (dead on a super high tide) there were still rideable waves and I had an enjoyable couple of hours. Tuesday am was a bit smaller but again, very uncrowded. Overheard a couple of surfers raving to one another about the Monday early stuff (GGRRR).
So 3-4 ft max but plenty of waves in each set. Direction certainly wasn't S. More E -NE.
Now I'm waiting for Sunday. Tomorrow looks like a kayak outing on the passage

[Grooter]

^^^

Hell yeah if those current predictions come true it looks like we're all in for a bit of fun, both for Xmas day and into the next week.

[SAsurfa]

Yeah I saw that SA.......it's supposed to be summer isn't it? What's doing with that little puppy forming down your way this time of year?

It's not uncommon for us even during the summer months to get medium sized swells with even one or two larger sized swells. They're not as frequent as winter but on the upside the winds are usually more favourable for places further west of Adelaide, making it one of my favourite times of year. But since mid-spring up until now were haven't seen much action over here with the summer weather patterns not really settling in yet and the westerly storm tract staying relatively quite. But it looks like things have kicked in to gear and we're in for a few chrissie and new year treats!