Just general surfing stuff

Can't find the right forum, then post your general surf-related remarks here!

Moderators: Butts, beach_defender, Shari, collnarra, Forum Moderators

User avatar
ajohnsen
Duke Status
Posts: 10386
Joined: Fri Aug 08, 2008 10:38 am
Location: Marrickville

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by ajohnsen » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:03 am

Yuke Hunt wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:41 am
ajohnsen wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:12 am
Byron is in NSW?
AJ ... !
Isn't it in a state of Fauxhemia?

Yuke Hunt
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 5019
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:31 pm
Location: Uncrowded

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Yuke Hunt » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:06 am

ajohnsen wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:03 am
Yuke Hunt wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:41 am
ajohnsen wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:12 am
Byron is in NSW?
AJ ... !
Isn't it in a state of Fauxhemia?
No doubt about that, whatsoever.
The moving finger writes and having writ moves on ... now all thy piety nor wit shall lure it back to cancel even half a line ... nor all thy tears wash out a single word of it.

User avatar
foamy
Owl status
Posts: 4092
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 6:46 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by foamy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:08 am

Clearly, they mean swell height for Lennox. Steve's graph does sometimes get incorrectly labelled as breaking wave height. A funny little fault to trick the unaware. Showing on my screen currently as swell height.

Image

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:18 am

swell height for Lennox is an oxymoron.

It literally makes no sense.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

User avatar
Cranked
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6939
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:52 am
Location: Willetton

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:22 am

Well Surf Forecast says 6' for Lennox today but its a 9s period. 400kJ though lets me know it will be about 2' faces
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:25 am

no.
typical, short/mid range cold front S swell.

scrappy 2-3ft. Fun, head high sets.

I have photos but am reluctant to post them.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:27 am

First principles.

A swell is the energy that moves through the ocean. It has a certain set of equations to describe it.

A breaking wave is what we ride. A different set of equations describe it.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

User avatar
Cranked
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6939
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:52 am
Location: Willetton

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:05 am

I think thats why I like using kJ, the swell/wave energy with no reference to height. Its then up to me to convert that to wave heights at a particular break if I want to. After about 5 years using it now I usually don't.

Unless I'm talking to someone who doesn't use it.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:07 am

Cranked have you ever used it at any other spots than the Bukit?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

User avatar
Cranked
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6939
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:52 am
Location: Willetton

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:26 am

No. Around Perth the offshore reef blocks most of the swell but the surf forecasts don't take this into account. I usually just convert the metres on the forecasts to feet, that is if the swell is 3m I'll assume its 3' faces.

Because of refraction around the reef gaps even a 3m swell is pretty much destroyed, especially as this phenomena increases with swell height. Consquently best swell size is under 2m as the smaller swells pass over the reef without too much interference.

The reef is the old drowned coastline, so its really consistent from about Dunsborough to Carnarvon. With a few gaps though.

I don't go down to Margaret River, north is too far. Its cheaper to go to Bali and the waves are way, way more consistent
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

User avatar
Trev
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 20322
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 3:11 pm
Location: Any Point Break

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Trev » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:31 am

Cranked wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:26 am
No. Around Perth the offshore reef blocks most of the swell but the surf forecasts don't take this into account. I usually just convert the metres on the forecasts to feet, that is if the swell is 3m I'll assume its 3' faces.

Because of refraction around the reef gaps even a 3m swell is pretty much destroyed, especially as this phenomena increases with swell height. Consquently best swell size is under 2m as the smaller swells pass over the reef without too much interference.

The reef is the old drowned coastline, so its really consistent from about Dunsborough to Carnarvon. With a few gaps though.

I don't go down to Margaret River, north is too far. Its cheaper to go to Bali and the waves are way, way more consistent
You don't surf Rotness?
#sixfeetissixfeet!

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:35 am

Cranked have you developed an understanding of the error margins in the Kj estimates, and more importantly the various scenarios that lead to those errors?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

User avatar
Cranked
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6939
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:52 am
Location: Willetton

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Cranked » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:57 am

I assume its the same as the error margins for swell height and period as that is what its derived from
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

Nick Carroll
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 20255
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2005 9:29 am
Location: Newport Beach

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Nick Carroll » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:59 am

steve shearer wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:03 am
Magic Seaweed's blurb on NSW.
Can you spot the error Godsave?

"ABOUT NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales, home to Sydney and Byron Bay is an epicentre of world surfing. South-east facing, the coastline picks up any west swells and some north-easterly during summer, including the occasional cyclone swell. In the main south-east swells only arrive during the winter. Dominant winds are cross-shore from the south apart from in summer when it switches to the north. Byron is famed for its long sandy point and the region boasts a profusion of sandy beaches and reefs. Sydney is of course famed for city surfing at its many beaches. First surfed by Duke Kahanamoku in 1914 surfing is extremely popular with an estimated 350,000 surfers spread along its 750 mile coastline. Water temperatures vary from 19 to 25°C or 66 to 77°F."
There's plenty more than one mistake in that little wrap-up. Reminds me of Dashiell Hammett's detective, reading a sign: "I was counting the number of lies in it, and had reached four, with promise of more"

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:04 am

Cranked wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:57 am
I assume its the same as the error margins for swell height and period as that is what its derived from
Sure, have you worked it out, ie calibrated it for the forecast site you use?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:09 am

Here's a fully calibrated forecast from the best forecaster in the world, daylight second: Pat Caldwell.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... Short-period N swell dropping with long-period S swell rising into the weekend.

DETAILED:. Mid Friday on northern shores has breakers above the summer average from 000-030 degrees. It should hold about the same on Saturday.

A long-lived fetch of fresh to strong breezes over a large area between 40-50N to the N to NNE of Hawaii 8/4-8 was sandwiched between broad areas of high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east. The pattern remained stationary into 8/8 then weakened and moved east 8/9. There should be one more day with small breakers centered from near 10 degrees then fading on Sunday.

The remnant of typhoon Shanshan is tracked east along 40N to the west of the Kuril Islands 8/10. It is much weaker than earlier model predication had given. The fetch area towards Hawaii remains small and weak in the model packages through the weekend. There could be a slight rise from 310 degrees late Wednesday.

Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers for N exposures aforementioned and below average trade windswell from 60-90 degrees. Low conditions should continue on Saturday.

The 8/10 morning ASCAT pass still shows some fresh speeds near Oahu though just out 60 nm or less, a short fetch. Otherwise the upstream trade windswell source regions is dominated by mostly gentle to moderate speeds. Thus the windswell is predicted to reach a minimum on Saturday.

A increase in trades over and E to ENE of Hawaii is predicted Sunday into Monday that could increase the surf a notch from trade windswell. It should remain below average.

Low, longer-period E swell are expected this period from two tropical eastern Pacific systems.

Hurricane John tracked NW to the S to W of southern Baja 8/7-9. With the medium span of the system and long travel distance over 2500 nm, only small surf is expected locally. It should fill in Sunday and hold into early next week from 80-90 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average.

Tropical storm Kristy has moved slowly N along 130W 8/8-10. The compact system is modelled to turn NW and weaken over the weekend as it remains beyond 1200 nm from Oahu. This could add small surf Tuesday into Wednesday 8/14-15 from 80-90 degrees.

Mid Friday on southern shores has breakers near to a notch below the summer average. The Hector swell has dropped to low windswell while a new long-period S swell builds.

Hurricane Hector generated well above average surf locally on 8/9 from 150-180 degrees. It was similar to the size of surf produced by Hurricane John in 1994. The latter was a category 5 system with a similar track to Hector. There was a large downwelling oceanic eddy to the SW of the Big Island as Hector passed directly over Wednesday night into early Thursday. This eddy would have had warmer sea surface temperatures that in turn could have been one of the ingredients to spur stronger ocean surface winds and a wider fetch aimed at Oahu than previously modelled 8/8 PM into the night. NOAA buoy 51004 SE of Hilo reached a maximum of 20' 8/8 while buoy 51002 south of Oahu reached 30'. This validates the more aggressive wave growth once in the Oahu swell window.

Hector continues a westward component as it gains latitude well to the WSW of Oahu 8/10. PacIOOS/CDIP Barbers Point buoy is showing low, shorter-period swell within 8-12 seconds from 180-220 degrees 8/10. This energy is predicted to fade. No more surf locally is expected for Oahu from Hector.

In the southern hemisphere a week ago, a broad area of low pressure tracked NE south of French Polynesia while a large high pressure settled east of New Zealand 8/3-5. The wide, long fetch had direct aim at Hawaii. The limiting factor was the magnitude of the winds, which stayed gale or less.

NOAA southern buoy 51002 and the PacIOOS/CDIP buoys off Barbers Point on Oahu and Kaumalapau off Lanai all show the rise in low, long-period swell 8/10. The event should be filled in by Saturday from 170-190 degrees, peak late Saturday, then slowly drop into Monday.

Background summer conditions are expected to take over by Tuesday.

Into the long range, a compact gale near 35S, 150W 8/9-10 is modelled to weaken as it moves east 8/11. It could bring surf above background levels though below the summer average within 8/17-19 from 170-185 degrees.

The tiny to small WNW event from the remnant of Shanshan is expected to linger 8/16.

Surf from 50-90 degrees is expected to remain below average 8/16-17 as the low surf from Kristy drops.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, August 13.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Nick Carroll
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 20255
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2005 9:29 am
Location: Newport Beach

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by Nick Carroll » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:50 am

Note how Pat never ever puts a feet or metre or "overhead" or whatever size on it. He only ever talks about rises and falls, trends up and down, swell angles and winds/surface pressure features

Any time you are within cooee of Hawaiian waters you'd be advised to tune into Pat and stay there.

User avatar
steve shearer
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 24225
Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm

Re: Just general surfing stuff

Post by steve shearer » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:25 pm

Cranked 8470 kj forecast for Lennox head next Monday.

any idea what that means?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests