Global Warming vs Sydney Surf
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Laurie McGinness
- regular
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- Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2005 2:43 pm
- Location: Dee Why/ Curl Curl
Global Warming vs Sydney Surf
Is it just me or is Sydney surf in serious long term decline. I can't remember an August like this one ever. It seems that the winter swells cut out earlier every year now. I thnk there's a Ph.D in it if there are any science graduates out there looking for a topic.
I wouldn't give it too long to change Laurie - there have been some serious studies on the effect global warming might have on the path of Coral Sea cyclones in the next 20 years and the consensus is that they will travel further south ~ possibly to the border, and on a regular basis.
Goodbye Collaroy
larry
Goodbye Collaroy
larry
Your most likely right Laurie, but I notice it most in temperature. I swear it was much colder 20 years ago, particulalry in the water. You would think surfers be an easy bunch to convince that something needs to be done, particularly with our beaches at stake.....
http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/08/20/1 ... 80816.html
I mean how many of you still drive V8's and 4WD's and have the airconditioner going all day long at home - although if you are, you could always ease your concience a little though Greenfleet
http://www.greenfleet.com.au/greenfleet/objectives.asp
http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/08/20/1 ... 80816.html
I mean how many of you still drive V8's and 4WD's and have the airconditioner going all day long at home - although if you are, you could always ease your concience a little though Greenfleet
http://www.greenfleet.com.au/greenfleet/objectives.asp
Interesting read this one, good to see the research is being done. God knows what effects global dimming will have on this whole equation:
Serious errors found in climate change report
University of Sydney academics have identified serious errors in the Climate Change: Risk and Vulnerability Promoting an Efficient Adaptation Response in Australia, prepared by the Allen Group for the Australian Greenhouse Office.
Researchers at the University of Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences question whether the Report conveys a false sense of security about the impact of climate change.
They have also developed advanced computer models for predicting long-term coastal erosion due to environmental change that support their view.
On page 59 the Allen Report cites the CSIRO, "Rising sea levels may also impact on beaches: CSIRO has said that the coastline could possibly retreat horizontally by 50 to 100 times the vertical sea level rise, which could imply a recession of sandy beaches by 4.5 to 88 metres by 2100 under certain climate change projections."
The researchers’ models show that beach recession could be almost twice that indicated in the Allen Group Report for the same climate-change projections.
Results show recession could be as much as 150 metres by the turn of the century for the Sydney coast due to sand loss from beaches to the offshore seabed. Recession could be even greater along other parts of the Australian coast more susceptible to climate-change impacts on transport of sand along the coast or into estuaries.
However, their models also show that the possible range of impacts on beaches could be much greater than conveyed by the Allen Report.
A small possibility even exists that some coasts could advance despite rising sea levels.
Dr Peter Cowell, from the University of Sydney Institute of Marine Science, said: "Our simulations are more accurate as they give forecasts in the terms of probability, more appropriate to risk management. The simulations use advanced computer models that we developed to predict coastal changes that not only include the expected range of increased sea levels. Our models also take into account effects of seawalls, offshore reefs, various types of sediments (eg, sand and mud), and changes in coastal dynamics, including effects on sand movements along the coast. The models are geared to manage the uncertainty inherent in making these types of predictions."
Serious errors found in climate change report
University of Sydney academics have identified serious errors in the Climate Change: Risk and Vulnerability Promoting an Efficient Adaptation Response in Australia, prepared by the Allen Group for the Australian Greenhouse Office.
Researchers at the University of Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences question whether the Report conveys a false sense of security about the impact of climate change.
They have also developed advanced computer models for predicting long-term coastal erosion due to environmental change that support their view.
On page 59 the Allen Report cites the CSIRO, "Rising sea levels may also impact on beaches: CSIRO has said that the coastline could possibly retreat horizontally by 50 to 100 times the vertical sea level rise, which could imply a recession of sandy beaches by 4.5 to 88 metres by 2100 under certain climate change projections."
The researchers’ models show that beach recession could be almost twice that indicated in the Allen Group Report for the same climate-change projections.
Results show recession could be as much as 150 metres by the turn of the century for the Sydney coast due to sand loss from beaches to the offshore seabed. Recession could be even greater along other parts of the Australian coast more susceptible to climate-change impacts on transport of sand along the coast or into estuaries.
However, their models also show that the possible range of impacts on beaches could be much greater than conveyed by the Allen Report.
A small possibility even exists that some coasts could advance despite rising sea levels.
Dr Peter Cowell, from the University of Sydney Institute of Marine Science, said: "Our simulations are more accurate as they give forecasts in the terms of probability, more appropriate to risk management. The simulations use advanced computer models that we developed to predict coastal changes that not only include the expected range of increased sea levels. Our models also take into account effects of seawalls, offshore reefs, various types of sediments (eg, sand and mud), and changes in coastal dynamics, including effects on sand movements along the coast. The models are geared to manage the uncertainty inherent in making these types of predictions."
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thermalben
- charger
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- Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2004 7:35 pm
- Location: Tweed Coast
I think people get too easily caught up in the short term, without looking at the bigger picture. Isn't this "flat August" coming off one of the "best Autumns" in a long time? The fantastic NW surf between March-May was hot on the heels of the "worst summer ever".. etc etc etc
The same happens everywhere. Vicco had a crappy Autumn, but it's cranked for the last couple of months as the winter storm track finally got its act together.
You've also got to put things into perspective. Take a look these two surfers - John* and Bob* (*not their real names). John works 9-5, Monday to Friday. He doesn't live near the beach, so he can only surf on weekends and public holidays. However, Bob has a flexible lifestyle, and can surf every day.
The surf often pulses in cycles, and it's not uncommon to see lengthy periods where every weekend is good for a couple of months. If the surf is crappy most weekdays, but pumps at least once every Saturday or Sunday for a season, John would think that the surf had been awesome. But Bob - who's got the flexibility to surf every day - would look at this ratio (one or two good days a week) and think that it sucked, as the poor days outnumbered the good days.
However, reverse this situation. We have epic waves mid-week, but every weekend, the wind turns onshore and the surf drops off. John's frustrated, as he keeps hearing how great the waves are all week, but it never turns on whenever he can get to the beach. He thinks the season sucks. But Bob is stoked. He's getting four or five days of great waves every week, using the crappy weekends to get his other stuff done. Bob reckons it's been one of the best seasons on record.
Which one is which? It's all relative, depending on your work situation and where you live (and the kinds of waves you're after). I know crew that have been scored great waves every week throughout this 'flat August' in NSW.
The same happens everywhere. Vicco had a crappy Autumn, but it's cranked for the last couple of months as the winter storm track finally got its act together.
You've also got to put things into perspective. Take a look these two surfers - John* and Bob* (*not their real names). John works 9-5, Monday to Friday. He doesn't live near the beach, so he can only surf on weekends and public holidays. However, Bob has a flexible lifestyle, and can surf every day.
The surf often pulses in cycles, and it's not uncommon to see lengthy periods where every weekend is good for a couple of months. If the surf is crappy most weekdays, but pumps at least once every Saturday or Sunday for a season, John would think that the surf had been awesome. But Bob - who's got the flexibility to surf every day - would look at this ratio (one or two good days a week) and think that it sucked, as the poor days outnumbered the good days.
However, reverse this situation. We have epic waves mid-week, but every weekend, the wind turns onshore and the surf drops off. John's frustrated, as he keeps hearing how great the waves are all week, but it never turns on whenever he can get to the beach. He thinks the season sucks. But Bob is stoked. He's getting four or five days of great waves every week, using the crappy weekends to get his other stuff done. Bob reckons it's been one of the best seasons on record.
Which one is which? It's all relative, depending on your work situation and where you live (and the kinds of waves you're after). I know crew that have been scored great waves every week throughout this 'flat August' in NSW.
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still here
- charger
- Posts: 913
- Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 1:07 pm
I reckon I seen worse Augusts . August is just a flat month generally ... time to bring out a mal ...maybe ride it at NN if you dare .
However , the heat equator is moving further North and South each year and definitely affects position of high and low pressure systems , thus affecting our surf . Some years are better , but it sure makes a difference if the surf coincides with one's day off .
However , the heat equator is moving further North and South each year and definitely affects position of high and low pressure systems , thus affecting our surf . Some years are better , but it sure makes a difference if the surf coincides with one's day off .
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Laurie McGinness
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I can't remember an August like this one with light warm offshores and virtually no swell. August has traditionally had fresh, cold offshores, a lot of good quality swell and a few flat days in between. Anyway if we look more broadly, I think there are a few major trends emerging
1. More frequent long flat spells
2. Fewer sizeable south swells
3. More weak easterly short fetch swell
All related to a southward shift in the high pressure band. I'm hoping there's a climatologist working on this somewhere. Until then I'm not holding my breath for that increase in cyclone swells.
1. More frequent long flat spells
2. Fewer sizeable south swells
3. More weak easterly short fetch swell
All related to a southward shift in the high pressure band. I'm hoping there's a climatologist working on this somewhere. Until then I'm not holding my breath for that increase in cyclone swells.
I have a theory.
It's got no scientific basis- just what i reckon could be happening.
Big cities retain heat. ( For example it very rarely snows in London but regularly snows just outside of it.) There is no difference in weather patterns hitting the area just that the snow falls as rain in the cbd.
WTF London has to do with surf in Sydney is sweet FA but i reckon that in Sydney we get crap surf more often (than up or down the coast) because the heat retained over night by the ever growing concrete jungle called Sydney (geographically one of the biggest cities in the world), disrupts the morning offshore at an earlier time due to the thermal effect Sydney as a whole 'could' have.
As i said there are no studies in it, but i bet a dollar if you were to look at wind speed and directions up and down the coast i reckon there would be a glaring abnormality around the Sydney area in any research carried out.
Now there's a project idea for any self respecting green minded environmental science studying realsurfer...
As for the waves being flat- dunno. According to my theory , if the winds swung onshore earlier in Sydney, we would have more swell not less.....
A bit off beat, but have you ever noticed that every time man goes into space there is an earthquake shortly after?! Freakin me out. Disturbing the natural balance, we're not meant to leave.....just another theory....
It's got no scientific basis- just what i reckon could be happening.
Big cities retain heat. ( For example it very rarely snows in London but regularly snows just outside of it.) There is no difference in weather patterns hitting the area just that the snow falls as rain in the cbd.
WTF London has to do with surf in Sydney is sweet FA but i reckon that in Sydney we get crap surf more often (than up or down the coast) because the heat retained over night by the ever growing concrete jungle called Sydney (geographically one of the biggest cities in the world), disrupts the morning offshore at an earlier time due to the thermal effect Sydney as a whole 'could' have.
As i said there are no studies in it, but i bet a dollar if you were to look at wind speed and directions up and down the coast i reckon there would be a glaring abnormality around the Sydney area in any research carried out.
Now there's a project idea for any self respecting green minded environmental science studying realsurfer...
As for the waves being flat- dunno. According to my theory , if the winds swung onshore earlier in Sydney, we would have more swell not less.....
A bit off beat, but have you ever noticed that every time man goes into space there is an earthquake shortly after?! Freakin me out. Disturbing the natural balance, we're not meant to leave.....just another theory....
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stylefirst
- barnacle
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Laurie McGinness
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- Location: Dee Why/ Curl Curl
Heat island effects are well documented so the onshore hypothesis could well be true, though probably more as an earlier onset. Local sea breezes have minimal impact on swell though so that part is less likely.
The space flight-earthquake hypothesis is much weaker. You would need some data to show the effect was real but to be taken seriously it would need a very high correlation as there is no theory providing a linkage between the events. This is not to say that they couldn't be related, just that science being conservative, doubts are always much greater when theory and observation part company.
The space flight-earthquake hypothesis is much weaker. You would need some data to show the effect was real but to be taken seriously it would need a very high correlation as there is no theory providing a linkage between the events. This is not to say that they couldn't be related, just that science being conservative, doubts are always much greater when theory and observation part company.
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oldman
- Snowy McAllister
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I have this sneaking suspicion, like Laurie, that the surf months are declining, but I'm not sure I agree generally with Laurie's analysis.
I've often looked at August as being the last of the low pressure big southerlies month, but my recall is that we only get a couple in the first half of August, before late August brings in the strong westerlies.
The August westerlies signify the beginning of the end, as spring on the east coast is usually 3 months of flatness, interrupted very rarely by a 1 or 2 day wonder. Desperate surfers enjoy the warmth and despair at the waves.
Late summer/Autumn is the great time in my book, but it was pretty lame by my recollection until May when it finally started to crank out some good swells. It cranked through June as well, which hasn't followed the pattern of the last 4 or 5 years where June has been very disappointing, and almost flat for the entire month before July comes to save (and freeze) us.
It would seem that the weather is changing, but the snapshot you get in a human lifetime represents a small time scale in terms of the weather.
I can't believe we have got through another winter without the long overdue devastating southerly storm swells, like the mid 70's when all the local beaches were shredded.
I've often looked at August as being the last of the low pressure big southerlies month, but my recall is that we only get a couple in the first half of August, before late August brings in the strong westerlies.
The August westerlies signify the beginning of the end, as spring on the east coast is usually 3 months of flatness, interrupted very rarely by a 1 or 2 day wonder. Desperate surfers enjoy the warmth and despair at the waves.
Late summer/Autumn is the great time in my book, but it was pretty lame by my recollection until May when it finally started to crank out some good swells. It cranked through June as well, which hasn't followed the pattern of the last 4 or 5 years where June has been very disappointing, and almost flat for the entire month before July comes to save (and freeze) us.
It would seem that the weather is changing, but the snapshot you get in a human lifetime represents a small time scale in terms of the weather.
I can't believe we have got through another winter without the long overdue devastating southerly storm swells, like the mid 70's when all the local beaches were shredded.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
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Nick Carroll
- Huey's Right Hand
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'Tis only a matter of time.
But they'll be in May and early June, like they always are.
I dunno, Laurie, without keeping close records it's kind of hard to tell how Aug 05 compares. But it ain't been the worst Aug, I know that for sure. The worst August was that of 1979. That month was the centrepiece of a six week flat spell of nightmarish proportions. Some of the worst behaviour in Newport's recorded history occurred in that month ... which is saying something.
The swell that broke the flat spell was a small, pleasant, clean south groundswell, around four foot, and none of us could recall how to paddle, let alone bottom turn. The first session was non stop laughter thanks to the utter incompetence on show from the supposedly super hot cream of Sydney's junior stars.
I always think of that flat '79 August as the time that broke my friends and I out of thinking every winter would be 10-15 feet on a regular basis. It broke the spell of '74. After that we knew we had to travel, or starve.
But they'll be in May and early June, like they always are.
I dunno, Laurie, without keeping close records it's kind of hard to tell how Aug 05 compares. But it ain't been the worst Aug, I know that for sure. The worst August was that of 1979. That month was the centrepiece of a six week flat spell of nightmarish proportions. Some of the worst behaviour in Newport's recorded history occurred in that month ... which is saying something.
The swell that broke the flat spell was a small, pleasant, clean south groundswell, around four foot, and none of us could recall how to paddle, let alone bottom turn. The first session was non stop laughter thanks to the utter incompetence on show from the supposedly super hot cream of Sydney's junior stars.
I always think of that flat '79 August as the time that broke my friends and I out of thinking every winter would be 10-15 feet on a regular basis. It broke the spell of '74. After that we knew we had to travel, or starve.
What does man going into space have to do with shifting techtonic plates? From memory 100's of quakes happen a day its just only some are big or are in an area which would get news coverage. Have you got any stats on your theory?craig wrote: A bit off beat, but have you ever noticed that every time man goes into space there is an earthquake shortly after?! Freakin me out. Disturbing the natural balance, we're not meant to leave.....just another theory....
Anyways quakes dont worry me in sydney, a massive 3.4 might hit one day and knock a glass off my shelf...
I am more curious about the fact we are due for another planet f*cking asteroid to come ploughing into our planet!
Well hey... at least there would be waves then!!!
I wonder if there are any reefs that could handle waves of a couple of thousand feet?
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Laurie McGinness
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- Location: Dee Why/ Curl Curl
I'm not sure that data exists Nick. When did they start putting the buoys out? Even then the correlation between swell reports and actual conditions on the beaches is less than 100%. Maybe it's just nostalgia but even when I factor that in I still have the impression that the trend line on swell in Sydney over the last twenty years has a negative slope. I've had a trawl around the BOM web site for historical data but I couldn't find anything relevant so there is still a Ph.D waiting for someone with the time and energy to pursue it.
Bad behaviour at Newport in 1979? I find that hard to believe. I thought Dee Why had a copyright on that until at least 1980.
Bad behaviour at Newport in 1979? I find that hard to believe. I thought Dee Why had a copyright on that until at least 1980.
The most noticeable change in weather patterns is how over the last 20 years low pressure systems have moved further south.
With the exception of this year between March and May all other large low pressure systems have not moved above 40 degrees south.
Also through the 90's we have experience more frequent high pressure systems forming in the centre of the Continent preventing low pressure systems from moving above 40 degress south and into the Tasman.
This also coincides with the beginning of the drought period that we have been in since the start of 1990 as we have had a may be 2 good years of rain in the last 14 years.
The other thing is that El niao's have become more frequent and there duration longer which has corresponded with the period from 1990 to now.
Now for the old fellas think back to the 70's, those low pressure systems would slam into WA and travel across to NSW and form or move up into the Tasman which is something that does not occur with any regularity any more.
And being on tank water, these days I now have to watch my water useage as we are having years now where we won't have any substantial rain from June to January. Where as prior to the changing weather patterns you could count on only August through to October as being dry.
Easiest job these days is a weather man as all they have to say is fine and sunny.
How often now do we get weeks of rain................
With the exception of this year between March and May all other large low pressure systems have not moved above 40 degrees south.
Also through the 90's we have experience more frequent high pressure systems forming in the centre of the Continent preventing low pressure systems from moving above 40 degress south and into the Tasman.
This also coincides with the beginning of the drought period that we have been in since the start of 1990 as we have had a may be 2 good years of rain in the last 14 years.
The other thing is that El niao's have become more frequent and there duration longer which has corresponded with the period from 1990 to now.
Now for the old fellas think back to the 70's, those low pressure systems would slam into WA and travel across to NSW and form or move up into the Tasman which is something that does not occur with any regularity any more.
And being on tank water, these days I now have to watch my water useage as we are having years now where we won't have any substantial rain from June to January. Where as prior to the changing weather patterns you could count on only August through to October as being dry.
Easiest job these days is a weather man as all they have to say is fine and sunny.
How often now do we get weeks of rain................
I know I've got a useless memory but I would guess that at least 50% of this years winter swells were from the e/ne where as others years I would guess it'd be more like 10%
Anyone else agree/disagree?
And I'd think thats the biggest pointer to everything changing
Anyone else agree/disagree?
And I'd think thats the biggest pointer to everything changing
If it's well engineered it's beautiful .
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