new swell on the way, gale force winds
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new swell on the way, gale force winds
hey all
get ready for wednesday
25ft predicted seas, gale force winds
hope my heads healed by then, went surfing with paul (wanto) at reddies and first wave i hit the reef with my head.
if anyone sees me wearing my helmet, please dont laugh too much, i have to wear it now. lol
he surfs allright too, he got a few barrels and it was nice and sucky.
cheers
oh check out bouyweather.com
allways an exageration, but heres the link anyway
http://buoy.ocens.net/wxnav.jsp?region= ... 10&units=e
get ready for wednesday
25ft predicted seas, gale force winds
hope my heads healed by then, went surfing with paul (wanto) at reddies and first wave i hit the reef with my head.
if anyone sees me wearing my helmet, please dont laugh too much, i have to wear it now. lol
he surfs allright too, he got a few barrels and it was nice and sucky.
cheers
oh check out bouyweather.com
allways an exageration, but heres the link anyway
http://buoy.ocens.net/wxnav.jsp?region= ... 10&units=e
Oscar Wilde - "I am not young enough to know everything"
- One Mile Point
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- charger
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Where'd you get that piece of info Phil? I think you'll find that's not the case. Their inaccuracy is for a number of reasons, but it's nothing to do with the fact that we're in the Southern Hemisphere.phil_mckrack wrote:never an exageration, just the way they forecast, and its developed for the northern hemisphere so theres your reason for error
Ok old benjo, i had heard that the technology had been developed in the northern hemisphere for the northern hemisphere and doesnt work as well here because of differences (i dont what they are) in the weather, i still beleive this to be true after seeing all surf forecasting and the NOGAPS charts that have been developed in the northern hemisphere, please set me straight, as it seems i am lost.
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Phil - these computer model forecasts were developed in the Northern Hemisphere, but then so were a huge number of things. Weather models are a very sophisticated piece of software that crunch an extraordinarly large amount of data to "predict" the weather, and the inherent problems stem from internal biases that can't be resolved on small scales. Additionally, the 'virtual buoys' only take into account significant wave heights and peak swell periods, so how do you know how much windswell and groundswell there is in the mix? (aside from doing manual computations which is how I usually forecast).
Anyway, I could go on for hours and bore everyone about this kind of stuff, but I'll have a much more complex overview on this topic sometime in the near future.. just working on a couple of other things at the moment.
Anyway, I could go on for hours and bore everyone about this kind of stuff, but I'll have a much more complex overview on this topic sometime in the near future.. just working on a couple of other things at the moment.
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- charger
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OMP - the upper end of the forecast scale is only expected to last for a short amount of time. I'll be winding down very quickly by Thursday.
Also, I'm finding it quite interesting as to how people have recently been interpreting my forecasts - as far as this week is concerned, I've seen a few people say that I'm forecasting 10'+, when the forecast was for a peak between 8-10'. Is everyone ignorning the "8" just because they want it to be bigger? It also happens when I forecast 4-6'. Everyone ignores the "4", and focuses in on the "6". Then they're disappointed when it's only 4-5'.
On top of that, this impending swell event is going to be 8-10' of junky windswell. It's not like we're going to see epic lines of huge swell marching into every beach..
Anyway, that's just something for me to work a little more on.. the interpretation and delivery.
Also, I'm finding it quite interesting as to how people have recently been interpreting my forecasts - as far as this week is concerned, I've seen a few people say that I'm forecasting 10'+, when the forecast was for a peak between 8-10'. Is everyone ignorning the "8" just because they want it to be bigger? It also happens when I forecast 4-6'. Everyone ignores the "4", and focuses in on the "6". Then they're disappointed when it's only 4-5'.
On top of that, this impending swell event is going to be 8-10' of junky windswell. It's not like we're going to see epic lines of huge swell marching into every beach..
Anyway, that's just something for me to work a little more on.. the interpretation and delivery.
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Ben, surfing optimists abound (me included).
One persons South Swell magnet is the next blokes protected corner.
Even surfers with decades of experience(25 years+ for me)
will always be expecting the better side of the forcast, regardless of who suggested it.
I reckon you have got the interpretation just about right. If someone cannot work out where they need to be, then they should just learn from the experience. When a surfer has a few decades of checking every beach, point and reef on the coast under every combination of wind, swell and tide, then - and only then do they deserve the rewards of consistently being in the right place at the right time.
Do not go dumbing down the forcasts (eg: reccomending where to be when for waves) for the sake of a bunch of lazy, inexperienced an undeserving whingers!!! Feck Em, if they cant work it out themselves they do not desrve to be out there!!
One persons South Swell magnet is the next blokes protected corner.
Even surfers with decades of experience(25 years+ for me)
will always be expecting the better side of the forcast, regardless of who suggested it.
I reckon you have got the interpretation just about right. If someone cannot work out where they need to be, then they should just learn from the experience. When a surfer has a few decades of checking every beach, point and reef on the coast under every combination of wind, swell and tide, then - and only then do they deserve the rewards of consistently being in the right place at the right time.
Do not go dumbing down the forcasts (eg: reccomending where to be when for waves) for the sake of a bunch of lazy, inexperienced an undeserving whingers!!! Feck Em, if they cant work it out themselves they do not desrve to be out there!!
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