new swell on the way, gale force winds

Post by **marcus** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:52 pm

hey all
get ready for wednesday
25ft predicted seas, gale force winds
hope my heads healed by then, went surfing with paul (wanto) at reddies and first wave i hit the reef with my head.
if anyone sees me wearing my helmet, please dont laugh too much, i have to wear it now. lol
he surfs allright too, he got a few barrels and it was nice and sucky.
cheers
oh check out bouyweather.com
allways an exageration, but heres the link anyway
http://buoy.ocens.net/wxnav.jsp?region= ... 10&units=e

Post by **Meataxe** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:40 pm

I can't f-cking wait! It's been so long since we've had a bit 'o fear inspiring swell!!

Post by **zzz** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 3:01 pm

geez Marcus, after your post video night debarcles and now a collision with the reef your noggin must be looking pretty ordinary.

phil_mckrack · Post by **phil_mckrack** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 4:41 pm

never an exageration, just the way they forecast, and its developed for the northern hemisphere so theres your reason for error, also those predictions arent for wave heights on the beach just for the slow few out there that wonder why they are alwas wrong

Post by **One Mile Point** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:32 pm

supposed to be waves for ages in 3-4 range after that

Post by **christopher** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:50 pm

any chance of the system heading north after and feeding us some easterly or northeastely swell??

Post by **thermalben** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 7:23 pm

phil_mckrack wrote:never an exageration, just the way they forecast, and its developed for the northern hemisphere so theres your reason for error

Where'd you get that piece of info Phil? I think you'll find that's not the case. Their inaccuracy is for a number of reasons, but it's nothing to do with the fact that we're in the Southern Hemisphere.

phil_mckrack · Post by **phil_mckrack** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 7:54 pm

Ok old benjo, i had heard that the technology had been developed in the northern hemisphere for the northern hemisphere and doesnt work as well here because of differences (i dont what they are) in the weather, i still beleive this to be true after seeing all surf forecasting and the NOGAPS charts that have been developed in the northern hemisphere, please set me straight, as it seems i am lost.

Post by **One Mile Point** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 8:48 pm

Hey ben if you read this post again how long is that 10' surf gonna hang around for? Cause i can only go thursday arvo.

Post by **thermalben** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:17 pm

Phil - these computer model forecasts were developed in the Northern Hemisphere, but then so were a huge number of things. Weather models are a very sophisticated piece of software that crunch an extraordinarly large amount of data to "predict" the weather, and the inherent problems stem from internal biases that can't be resolved on small scales. Additionally, the 'virtual buoys' only take into account significant wave heights and peak swell periods, so how do you know how much windswell and groundswell there is in the mix? (aside from doing manual computations which is how I usually forecast).

Anyway, I could go on for hours and bore everyone about this kind of stuff, but I'll have a much more complex overview on this topic sometime in the near future.. just working on a couple of other things at the moment.

Post by **thermalben** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:24 pm

OMP - the upper end of the forecast scale is only expected to last for a short amount of time. I'll be winding down very quickly by Thursday.

Also, I'm finding it quite interesting as to how people have recently been interpreting my forecasts - as far as this week is concerned, I've seen a few people say that I'm forecasting 10'+, when the forecast was for a peak between 8-10'. Is everyone ignorning the "8" just because they want it to be bigger? It also happens when I forecast 4-6'. Everyone ignores the "4", and focuses in on the "6". Then they're disappointed when it's only 4-5'.

On top of that, this impending swell event is going to be 8-10' of junky windswell. It's not like we're going to see epic lines of huge swell marching into every beach..

Anyway, that's just something for me to work a little more on.. the interpretation and delivery.

Post by **barstardos** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:55 pm

Ben, surfing optimists abound (me included).
One persons South Swell magnet is the next blokes protected corner.
Even surfers with decades of experience(25 years+ for me)
will always be expecting the better side of the forcast, regardless of who suggested it.
I reckon you have got the interpretation just about right. If someone cannot work out where they need to be, then they should just learn from the experience. When a surfer has a few decades of checking every beach, point and reef on the coast under every combination of wind, swell and tide, then - and only then do they deserve the rewards of consistently being in the right place at the right time.

Do not go dumbing down the forcasts (eg: reccomending where to be when for waves) for the sake of a bunch of lazy, inexperienced an undeserving whingers!!! Feck Em, if they cant work it out themselves they do not desrve to be out there!!

Post by **Jamoe** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:24 am

Gone to far north in terms of storms, the ECL front completely missed sydney... does that mean we are going to get less surf then say Newcastle?

birubi · Post by **birubi** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:10 am

i dont think sydeney will be lacking swell jamoe.The MHL buoys are reading over 6M sig and over 10M max height from the SE

Post by **Jamoe** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:49 am

haha yeh the swell is going nuts...point taken!

Post by **Jessep** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:20 am

has anyone been down yet is it as big as what was expected

Post by **greygrom** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:36 am

Copa point will be good for longboards & lids today

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new swell on the way, gale force winds

new swell on the way, gale force winds

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