Kelly's wave.

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Nick Carroll
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Nick Carroll » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:32 am

black duck wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:08 am
What's your view on the investment NC?
KS and others must have poked at least 10 - 20 mill to get where they are, probs more. Will it be all about return on investment and selling it? What's at the core of it, KS wave pools all over the place to get returns?
It's not that simple. I think anyone who is investing in wave pools hoping to make a return on dollar per wave consumption, i.e. the through-the-door wave customer base, is out of their tiny fcuken minds. Maybe it'd work but it's too close to the standard amusement park model, and standard amusement parks are Trouble.

I think the WSL has a very broad long term view of what can be achieved with this thing. They're gonna continue to improve it for a start. They will hide the nuts and bolts of the machinery and "naturalise" the surroundings. They will develop a business model or structure around the tank: viewing stands, restaurants, shops, maybe a boutique hotel etc. They will curate CTs and other events to which they'll be able to charge viewing entry - people will come to see the pros' practice sessions as well as competition, just like they come to see F1 practice etc. They'll probably sell some sort of high end memberships -- this pool can't really sustain a dollar-per-wave Joe Sixpack thing but it could sustain small groups who're paying a few grand a year for a handful of daily sessions with a handful of friends, a coaching pro etc. Many income streams, not just one or two. The chunk of land they have got hold of in Florida will be a good crack at this, the development has a budget of around US$45 million. They will keep iron control over each development as it happens, make sure everything fits together and nobody goes rogue with a franchise. It will take some time, because there's only so many people right now with the expertise to actually design and construct this thing, let alone run it. But let's say they build six or seven of 'em around the world in different places over the next decade, refining and tuning the model each time. That is a hell of a business. I can totally see why the Ziffs have decided to stick this out instead of bailing, which some people have told me they were honestly thinking of doing back in 2016. It means the WSL would actually have something to sell, as opposed to just running surf contests, which only ever makes money indirectly. If it works, it is easily big enough to make owning the CT worthwhile.

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Cranked
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Cranked » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:44 pm

Why don't the Ziffs just go out and buy surf breaks and do the same as the above with them. For instance I'm sure they could buy the whole of Uluwatu for less than a hundred million (50 million in payoffs, the rest to the current owners).

Gragagan for half that. Desert point a quarter. Small change for various Mentawai breaks.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Beerfan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:04 pm

Because consistency, and added income streams. Nick saw just how much they are planning to pimp out the surfing experience. The annual event, with guaranteed conditions, the restaurants, the hotel, the season passes etc. They clearly believe enough people will pay for some part of the experience to be worth it.


FFS in every western country, if you have a buffet and an all you can drink package you'll get mouth breathing bogans in droves. It'll be like a cruise, but they'll all get to wear their rip curl gear. Probably buy more when they're there. Throw in free wifi, a chapel and some pokies and profit baby!!

And a "I went to the wsl Dubbo pool pro and all I got was this lousy t-shirt" shirt
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Over55yrs » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:18 pm

And the 'model' works 20 hours a day (4 hours for machine maintenance and cleaning) for 365 days a year. Just wait until places like Dubai build one - all part of the airport experience.

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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by alakaboo » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:24 pm

I would actually change my flight routing to Europe if there were wave pools for the long stopovers.

Which is strange, because if they built one in Ipswich, under an hour away, I probably wouldn't drive there.

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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Nick Carroll » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:33 pm

Cranked wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:44 pm
Why don't the Ziffs just go out and buy surf breaks and do the same as the above with them. For instance I'm sure they could buy the whole of Uluwatu for less than a hundred million (50 million in payoffs, the rest to the current owners).

Gragagan for half that. Desert point a quarter. Small change for various Mentawai breaks.
Because this is new. There's never been anything like it before. And they own it and can franchise it. I can't stress this enough, this pool is not like surfing as we know it. All the things you know and think about surfing just don't apply to it.

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Cranked
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Cranked » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:05 pm

Uh oh. Nick has seen the light, a near religous revelation has occured in the wilderness of California
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Beerfan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:08 pm

Nick Carroll wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:33 pm
Cranked wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:44 pm
Why don't the Ziffs just go out and buy surf breaks and do the same as the above with them. For instance I'm sure they could buy the whole of Uluwatu for less than a hundred million (50 million in payoffs, the rest to the current owners).

Gragagan for half that. Desert point a quarter. Small change for various Mentawai breaks.
Because this is new. There's never been anything like it before. And they own it and can franchise it. I can't stress this enough, this pool is not like surfing as we know it. All the things you know and think about surfing just don't apply to it.
What's the attraction for surfers then?
we are the angry mob
We read the papers everyday
We like who we like, we hate who we hate
But we're also easily swayed

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The Mighty Sunbird
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by The Mighty Sunbird » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:54 pm

Barrel time guaranteed, perhaps?
Erase.

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Cranked
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Cranked » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:57 pm

Nick Carroll wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:32 am
They will curate CTs and other events to which they'll be able to charge viewing entry - people will come to see the pros' practice sessions as well as competition, just like they come to see F1 practice etc. They'll probably sell some sort of high end memberships -- this pool can't really sustain a dollar-per-wave Joe Sixpack thing but it could sustain small groups who're paying a few grand a year for a handful of daily sessions with a handful of friends, a coaching pro etc. Many income streams, not just one or two.
IMHO the bottom line is that watching pros compete in a wavepark with waves of a mechanical consistency will be beyond booring and without cachet. So trying to base entertainment on something that is inherently not entertaining is not very smart. So the raison dêtre - on which all the other money making endeavors are based - is a chimera.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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The Mighty Sunbird
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by The Mighty Sunbird » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:45 pm

HOWEVER
Pros on a perfectly predictable wave could push performance to a new level?
All they need to do is get the tits in there
Erase.

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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Rustt » Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:24 am

Nick Carroll wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:33 pm
Cranked wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:44 pm
Why don't the Ziffs just go out and buy surf breaks and do the same as the above with them. For instance I'm sure they could buy the whole of Uluwatu for less than a hundred million (50 million in payoffs, the rest to the current owners).

Gragagan for half that. Desert point a quarter. Small change for various Mentawai breaks.
Because this is new. There's never been anything like it before. And they own it and can franchise it. I can't stress this enough, this pool is not like surfing as we know it. All the things you know and think about surfing just don't apply to it.
If they just went out and bought a surf break they would be seen as massive cnuts(Tavaru) but building a surfbreak they are heroes seen as adding to the surfing world instead of taking away.

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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Nick Carroll » Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:11 am

Cranked wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:05 pm
Uh oh. Nick has seen the light, a near religous revelation has occured in the wilderness of California
Not at all, I still wouldn't pay a cent to ride a wave pool. I went surfing at Lowers three days later and caught way more waves off my own bat, and when I wanted to catch them, not just when the button was pushed by the control tower guys. But having checked it out and actually had a couple of sessions in it, really gives you a rapid insight into how completely different it is to what we've always thought of as surfing.

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Cranked
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Cranked » Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:37 am

OK. I take your point, intriguing as it is.

I've really been enjoying the fast, ever-changing, twisting, writhing walls of the bukit reef breaks lately. They set problem after problem and if you solve them all you are rewarded with a 300m+ exhilarating wave. This constantly having to think and/or intuitively react is addictive and the complete antithesis to what I imagine a wave pool can offer.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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steve shearer
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by steve shearer » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:39 am

It's good for preventing cognitive decline too.
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Cranked
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Cranked » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:42 am

Oh, good. I need that.
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything I say ”— Marshall McLuhan

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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by offshore1 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:53 am

Cranked's not even in Indo, he's in an assisted living facility in Port Macquarie.
ajohnsen wrote: My tertiary education has been a bit like a blind woman with sudden onset diarrhea in a bathroom accessories showroom.

Nick Carroll
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Re: Kelly's wave.

Post by Nick Carroll » Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:55 am

He was lucky to get a bed there, what with the crazy real estate prices in Port Macquarie.

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