Do you keep a surf diary?

[alakaboo]

I met a bloke at the Goldy who had a daily surf record for Coolangatta from about 1968

How long have you kept it?
Have you noticed any changes over long periods (5yrs +)?
And for Fong's benefit, how do observations and forecasts match up?

[steve shearer]

Had one since 1988.

Changes? Yeah, according to the ENSO/PDO cycles mostly.

Fong's bullshittting, if he had a swell diary he'd post it up.

C;'mon Tim, show us your scrapbook.

[steve shearer]

Whats that mate?

The dog ate it and you can only find the one with the Royal Wedding in it.

[wildChild]

I know its a big ask, but any chance you can upload some monthly or even weekly comparisons from say July 2010 and July 1990 etc.

Also can you tell the younger users what the surf was like on their birthdays?

[gibber]

I know its a big ask, but any chance you can upload some monthly or even weekly comparisons from say July 2010 and July 1990 etc.

Also can you tell the younger users what the surf was like on their birthdays?

Epic idea!

[mustkillmulloway]

alakaboo wrote:
Fong, how do you work out whether it is a pass or fail?

The divine right of kings!

twas a serious question...
I had a look at the relationship between surf reports (CW) and the observations of council lifeguards for Manly.
Over the summer swimming season of 07-08 there were around 200 reports. Of these, around 50 were in agreement, around 100 CW reported bigger than the lifeguards, around 50 CW reported smaller.

ohhh boo....u know not wat pot u stirring this is sure end in another me vs the evil empire of swellnet sequel

but...it be a laugh soooooo once more into the breach my friends

lets play.....now 2nd reef....i actually begruding respect..so if his the swellnet general....that leaves steve as cannon fodder lets dismiss the pawn first


yes steve, i do have diarys most good fishos do you should try it yourself...fu.ck knows u need all the help u can too catch a feed so....from my teen years i've kept a diary, all about fishing but as a side i did start include surf conditions

that kinda become a equal obsession...till the net.....than i went all high tech

but back your orginal question boo

i copy and paste the 6 day out forecast ( i found by 3 days out it's a non event and both sites suggest the exact same conditions...so they end up equally wrong ) into a note book folder.....i than check the conditions on the day against the forecast and daily report as published....take a pic and record results

i than got this cool little stastic/graph thingo i downloaded...that i feed into....and there u have it....standing uptodate results on surf forecast sites

both coastalwatch and swellnet average ( so far this year) below 40%...it will make a great story when i get round writting it...but since the sites and mags are in bed together....finding someone run it is a challange i guess

but one day...someone will....and squel like pigs some ppl will because it

don weather i also do....but as his is a weekend forecast....i can't compare ...well i could but be thrusters too row boats if u get my


i'm amazed....that these surf forecasts sites don't do the same help them improve there very low game

but they seem prefer just tell anyone who listen they are right all the time

[jimmy]

Fong I love you.. Can you please send those muddys soon and hook me up with your saucy work mate?

[Trev]

Fong I love you.. Can you please send those muddys soon and hook me up with your saucy work mate?

You should come to Sunny Coast Realsurf get togethers. Fong brings nicely cooked muddies to them.

[alakaboo]

Fong, you never disappoint. Shine on you crazy diamond.

i copy and paste the 6 day out forecast ( i found by 3 days out it's a non event and both sites suggest the exact same conditions...so they end up equally wrong ) into a note book folder.....i than check the conditions on the day against the forecast and daily report as published....take a pic and record results

You do realise that you're not actually testing surf forecasting, but the models they rely upon?



I'm astounded surf forecasts 6 days out are ever right, frankly.
I take my hat off to anyone who can take remotely observed three-dimensional weather events, sometimes thousands of kilometres away, and translate that into what happens on the shoreline, without access to good bathymetrical info or a cohesive network of wave buoys.
A couple of knots or a couple of degrees of rotation difference and the forecast goes to water (so to speak).

A mate at the bureau told me that any forecast more than 2 days out isn't worth spit, despite the fact that he's the one writing the updates... And that's for local weather.
That's probably why you see comments like this (from the latest forecasts, cut and pasted from the web, sorry to anyone who objects to me putting their own words in their mouth... ):

There is a possibility it could track away faster than expected generating a S swell for this region. We'll review that on Wed.

We'll need to come back on Wed and put numbers on it as models firm on the evolution of the Tasman low.

While these scenarios are inherently unpredictable...

Check back on Wed and we'll take a fresh look at these upcoming dynamic weather/swell events.

The models are wildly divergent on the development of a deep low pressure system across the south-east of the country during the middle of this week

We may see a stronger pulse of swell if winds come in stronger than currently forecast, but we'll review this again on Wednesday so check back then for an update.

Seeing as there's so much divergence in the short term regarding the end of the week's swell, it's worth keeping an eye on this before looking further ahead. But if we want to look further ahead the outlook is pretty exciting with another deep Tasman Low on the cards for early next week, but with all this activity, it's best to check back here on Wednesday for another update.

From CW - Ben McCartney:
"While this also holds potential for a small increase in short range S swell on Thursday, there’s still enough divergence among key modelling to cast doubt over the development of this wind fetch."


and from the archives:

Actual raw weather forecast data is riddled with error and fundamental flaw........initialisation problems, latency, accuracy and precision of actual real-time data.
As an experiment take any weather site and plot 3day wind forecasts against the actuals......you'll soon see what I mean.

[alakaboo]

p.s. can I have your surf diary?

['llo-and Behold]

I've tried too keep notes on calendars from time to time. Never lasts very long. This year's was going well till the shit hit the fan...

[2nd Reef]

lets play.....now 2nd reef....i actually begruding respect..so if his the swellnet general....that leaves steve as cannon fodder lets dismiss the pawn first

i copy and paste the 6 day out forecast ( i found by 3 days out it's a non event and both sites suggest the exact same conditions...so they end up equally wrong ) into a note book folder.....i than check the conditions on the day against the forecast and daily report as published....take a pic and record results

i than got this cool little stastic/graph thingo i downloaded...that i feed into....and there u have it....standing uptodate results on surf forecast sites

both coastalwatch and swellnet average ( so far this year) below 40%...it will make a great story when i get round writting it...but since the sites and mags are in bed together....finding someone run it is a challange i guess

but one day...someone will....and squel like pigs some ppl will because it

"I wont stand back and watch my men get slaughtered. I'm not that type of general"

Fong, are you comparing our six day forecasts to the daily reports?

If so, I reckon we're doing exceptionally well to be on 40%. From that far out we're usually just looking at rough patterns, scoping out the broader nature of swells and not the specific timing and sizing. This helps people to plan in advance. As the days get closer we'll start nailing down numbers. This is not a secret, it is often mentioned in our forecasts.

Also, Swellnet is not in bed with any magazine. We were with Tracks though we got out of the relationship 18 months ago because of 'creative differences'. I would, however, like to see your study in print so can give you contacts if you like.

[2nd Reef]

You do realise that you're not actually testing surf forecasting, but the models they rely upon?

Well, much of forecasting is understanding and discerning the various models - what their strong and weak points are - and making a prediction based on your knowledge of how they work.

Very few people understand how the models work and it takes a lot of time in front of a computer screen to make sense of them. Watching someone do it well is like watching someone reading a different language - they're making sense of things that others can't see.

I can't do it, despite always having had a keen interest in meteorology (to the extent that I almost studied it). So I tip my hat to the guys who can do it well. There's more to it than what most people think, especially here on the east coast where systems are fast-moving and dynamic.

[2nd Reef]

What's with the disappearing posts, Fong? Have second thoughts on that little nugget of information you popped in there?

Well, I saw it and I'll slip it away for future use.

[TZK]

You do realise that you're not actually testing surf forecasting, but the models they rely upon?

Well, much of forecasting is understanding and discerning the various models - what their strong and weak points are - and making a prediction based on your knowledge of how they work.

Very few people understand how the models work and it takes a lot of time in front of a computer screen to make sense of them. Watching someone do it well is like watching someone reading a different language - they're making sense of things that others can't see.

I can't do it, despite always having had a keen interest in meteorology (to the extent that I almost studied it). So I tip my hat to the guys who can do it well. There's more to it than what most people think, especially here on the east coast where systems are fast-moving and dynamic.

The majority of the time I could just copy and paste Windguru's very user friendly 7 day forecast and it would read the same. Simple conversion of swell height and period and voila your own tailor made surf forecast.

[mustkillmulloway]

and last poll i saw showed labor the door

What door? Labor is in power.

at a country level labor isn't in power....they have entered into a power sharing agreement as a minority goverment they never won any right govern

but i was talking closer home.....who won the nsw state election out right

i'll give u a hint....starts with a l....sounds nothin like labor

If so, I reckon we're doing exceptionally well to be on 40%. .

where do u get 40% from.....read my posts again.....it's LESS THAN

What's with the disappearing posts, Fong? .

yeah....it was for your eyes second reef.....use it u feel fit....i just had admit too it

it makes our debate ...more ...well honest i guess

i'm quite confident i'll win any old how

i'm still waiting on 6ft south swell ben forecast 4 years ago

[bumfluff]

I've found the Swellnet swell forecast to be quite accurate. When you marry that with Willy Weather's wind forecast, it's right far more often than it's wrong - even 6 days out. In fact over the last couple of months since the westerlies have been on, it's been pretty much spot on except for a few days here or there.

[mustkillmulloway]

do u keep a diary bummy

it can be as simple as recording your surfs on a scale 1 too 6....u don't even have write anything

boo....did u like my fishing diary i sent u ages ago? i guess your welcome too the rest my gear if it help your work and studys......the surf detail isn't much...the fishing is recorded in vivid detail i was reading some it tonight

u know the butter box ledge at anga.....not only is it good jump off but a decent feed lives right under it

p.s my diarys tend suggest last two weeks in march....are your best bets be bumming around the north coast nsw looking for waves there look....climate change hasn't change a thing.