The Floods

[jimmy]

It's alll very sad stuff when lives are lost.

The media are having frenzy with this and as we're headlong into the 21C and then some, they've had a fair bit of practice covering these sorts of events worldwide.

A very disturbing bit of vision on the evening news ealier tnight of a family of 3 clinging desperately to their car shot from chopper I assumed above them but unable to help and tragically they became 3 of the scores of lives lost so far.

But fcuk em and their cannibalistic appetite for a story.
And it goes without saying, fcuk us too, for devouring the bones.

I can't begin to describe how I feel listening to the PM, ours and Qld's premiers too. Kind a just feel like slapping the three of them and saying quit the gibber jabber and just fcuken do something with heart and meaning.

Skip great call. Lives lost are always a tragedy but FFS there has been a lot of media beatup on this tragedy...

[mustkillmulloway]

more they talk shit and do tours/photo ops more they can avoid questions like this

"Release of 516,000ml of water from Wivenhoe that will then coincide with the arrival of flows from the Bremer and the Lockyer and the king tide on Wednesday does not seem to be the optimal in water management"

end quote

my understanding of Wivenhoe Dam is that it was built for flood mitigation purposes and that its level should only have ever reached 60% before water was let out --- not over 100% like it was allowed to reach. If we had not been put on such strict water restrictions and had been allowed to use the water we would not be in this situation as the remaining 40% would have taken all of the water which is now coming down the Brisbane River and threatening Brisbane.

consider.. :?

[kayu]

more they talk shit and do tours/photo ops more they can avoid questions like this

Release of 516,000ml of water from Wivenhoe that will then coincide with the arrival of flows from the Bremer and the Lockyer and the king tide on Wednesday does not seem to be the optimal in water management

my understanding of Wivenhoe Dam is that it was built for flood mitigation purposes and that its level should only have ever reached 60% before water was let out --- not over 100% like it was allowed to reach. If we had not been put on such strict water restrictions and had been allowed to use the water we would not be in this situation as the remaining 40% would have taken all of the water which is now coming down the Brisbane River and threatening Brisbane.

....they gotta release water from Wivenhoe...the wall wasn't built to hold this much water......if the wall goes....?? ...much worse...

[bumfluff]

I just finished volunteering to help the council make sandbags for the CBD...was good to see about 50 other Queenslanders show up to offer some help.

But if I see another sandbag I'm gonna shoot someone.

[Donweather]

A very disturbing bit of vision on the evening news ealier tnight of a family of 3 clinging desperately to their car shot from chopper I assumed above them but unable to help and tragically they became 3 of the scores of lives lost so far.

The footage was taken from the Ch 7 news helicopter and they weren't equipped to try and rescue this family at the time. I was amazed how well the car was floating. Apparently the mother and child (son) have been found alive, but the father is still on the missing list. Very sad indeed.

[Donweather]

my understanding of Wivenhoe Dam is that it was built for flood mitigation purposes and that its level should only have ever reached 60% before water was let out --- not over 100% like it was allowed to reach. If we had not been put on such strict water restrictions and had been allowed to use the water we would not be in this situation as the remaining 40% would have taken all of the water which is now coming down the Brisbane River and threatening Brisbane.

Fong, this aint correct mate. They kept Wivenhoe at full water supply capacity up until last week when they started to release some water. The sheer volume of water that has landed in the catchment in the last few days is staggering and they cannot keep up with the inflows and hence have opened the gates fully to avoid the dam wall over topping.

Check out the website for the amazing increase in inflows over the last few days.

http://www.seqwater.com.au/public/catch ... venhoe-dam

Then click on the 7d graph at the bottom.

And if I hear the media fecking mention king tides one more fecking time I'm gonna smash them. King tides are NOT until next week....dumb fecks!!!

[Grooter]

How is Cairns?

My uncle just dropped $550K on a new house up there and is heading up there to live now with his wife from Victoria. Sure hope his house ain't fcuked!

[Beanpole]

Hope everyones cynicism is well founded. Nice to be complacent when your house isn't washing down the street. I guess they thought it wouldn't come up that quick. I was around for the 74 flood. No problem much if you were on high ground. A bit like not being hit by a train really. Nothing to worry about. Particularly good surf for quite a while back then as I remember.

How much water were you planning on drinking Fong to keep the water down in the dam?
Its at 190%. It got full in December didn't it with the last flood.

Hysteria is bad news in situations like this but think about it this way, if you are actually under threat it is crucial information if you judge yourself not to be then its useless. How goods your judgement?
Some people flip out under stress, others don't.
After the condemnation of officials after Victoria's bushfires theyre not going to sit back and watch the river flow.

[alakaboo]

my understanding of Wivenhoe Dam is that it was built for flood mitigation purposes and that its level should only have ever reached 60% before water was let out --- not over 100% like it was allowed to reach. If we had not been put on such strict water restrictions and had been allowed to use the water we would not be in this situation as the remaining 40% would have taken all of the water which is now coming down the Brisbane River and threatening Brisbane.

consider..

ah fong, where would we be without you?

Wivenhoe drinking capacity is 1.16 million ML and change. That's enough for 2000 days of consumption at Brisbane rates (still thirsty?), and doesn't include Somerset, which flows into Wivenhoe was at 160% capacity yesterday arvo.

Flood storage Capacity is another 1.45 million ML. There's some sort of requirement in legislation that this has to be emptied within 7 days for emergency reasons, not sure of the threshold.

Total is 2.62 million ML, or around 226% 'capacity' as they are talking about drinking water capacity. But it won't ever reach that, because there are dirt and gravel plugs in the wall that are designed to give way beforehand so that the dam wall doesn't give way.

The flood storage component was filling up faster than they could empty it yesterday, the peak release was over 610,000 ML per day, which is about 120% of the capacity of Sydney Harbour (even though that's a pretty pointless reference point).
Inflow rates, though impossible to get accurate, were estimated at over 1 million ML per day, meaning the flood mitigation component would fill up in under 36 hours. Doesn't matter how much you drink!
For what it's worth, the level of the dam yesterday morning was 2.05 million ML and rising fast as per Don's link. That's about 10 years drinking water, more than 3500 days supply.

There were some real concerns about the first plug giving way, which would release about 8m of the dam level within a few hours. In that event, Ipswich and Brisbane would be in trouble.
If the dam level got to 75.3m then the first plug would be likely to go. If you look here, you can see why people were worried:
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65389/IDQ6 ... .plt.shtml

It's still not out of the question that it will reach 75.3m, if you look at the table that plot is derived from:
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65389/IDQ6 ... .tbl.shtml
then the latest level is 74.77m and hopefully steady.

They backed off the release volume overnight to see what would happen to the dam levels. That was to minimise flooding, but also to try and figure out the inflow rates. When they did, the level started rising again, but not so dramatically. That suggests the inflow rate is somewhere between the rate of release since last night (370 000 ML per day) and the faster rate of yesterday arvo (610 000 ML per day). Hopefully that means that there is scope to manage releases to minimise flooding, without risking the plug being eroded. They'll have to release more from Somerset today, so that could be a factor as the current inflow rate is with Somerset gates closed.

Right, hope that's all accurate.
Fingers crossed it all works out for the best.

[Donweather]

Beanpole, don't get me wrong. My thoughts are with people devastated from these floods particularly up in Toowoomba. My gripe is the pandemonium that was set rife through the CBD yesterday. It actually caused more damage than good with massive traffic jambs and overloaded public transport. The hysteria in Brisbane yesterday was NOT warranted. Granted today in Ipswich and tomorrow in Brisbane will be another story and yeah sure warnings for that are warranted. I was just blown away by the panic in the CBD yesterday that's all.

People have panic bought in the shops also, even in areas that will not go under. Try buying a loaf of bread or milk today!!!

[Donweather]

Alakaboo....very informative post mate.....keep up the good work. BTW - What do you do for a livin again?

[alakaboo]

Pretty fair wrap up Don, except that Murphy's Creek is northeast of Toowoomba. Withcott and Helidon are east of Toowoomba and at the bottom of the range.
I've had a few people tell me today Toowoomba is in a depression or on a creek bed but i used to know it pretty well and the ground flows pretty evenly down to the west form the top of the range. (And almost every town/city I know is built along a waterway ).I reckon you're right about the downpour though. If it fell just north of the town towards Crow Nest and above Murphy's Creek I can see how it happened. i can't understand how the water from Toowoomba got up and over the range though. Perhaps there were two flows, one through Toowoomba and one east of the watershed and down the range.
Have to dig out my old army survey maps and check out the lie of the land. Might be interesting.

Trev, there are two catchments around Toowoomba. One flows west, one flows east (called the Lockyer Catchment). The split as to what flows where is roughly where the railway line runs.
There's a sort of saddle on the top of the ridge where water can pool up, which is what seems to have happened.
East and West Cks merge into Gowrie Ck, and they were the ones that flooded the city, I believe, and Gowrie actually flows west once it's out of Toowoomba, to the Condamine.
Lockyer Ck is the one that flows down to Murphy's Ck etc, it was also flooded but not linked to the Toowoomba flooding. Same weather system, different creek system

Not great reporting, but understandable...

[diggerdickson]

I am a bit sick of all the news on it, but I think the abc radio is doing a great service on the floods, the information on what roads are closed on thier website is very helpful for those in need. I can understand the need for the news but to be on every channel

My thoughts go out to those affected by this and it is surreal really what is happening

For me and my family I wont let no kids in the backyard. Im taking my shovel on saturday and going snake hunting, my carport flooded, some cut up blanks and foam I was gonna pratice on ruined. mould everywhere and the roads yesterday were bloody dangerous. My shed flooded and a lot of stuff I will need to chuck out. But you will never hear me whinge, Im just lucky to be living where I do and not in the flood effected areas.

On a brighter side Im expecting my favourite point to be breaking on saturday and sunday, the beginning of my holidays and I should get some heavy waves there if my body is up to it

[alakaboo]

Alakaboo....very informative post mate.....keep up the good work. BTW - What do you do for a livin again?

Now, I'm a (paid) student in environmental economics, specialising in coastal resource management. Should be finishing my thesis right now.
But I used to work for Healthy Waterways in SEQ as part of what is now DERM, did a lot of field work in the catchments that are now flooded. Hard to believe, given that when we were placing equipment that had to be in 1m of water, we often struggled to find anywhere that would stay wet for 3 weeks...

Mum's family is also from Toowoomba (not there now), and we used to have a farm at Murphy's Ck, so it's all interesting.

[Donweather]

Sounds like you're the man in the know then alakaboo.

[crabmeat thompson]

Madness here. Yamba is cutoff so no way to get to the supermarket, maclean is cutoff from the north, south and west. Produce and delivery trucks can't get into the area, so they're telling us this is all the food and supplies the town has for maybe a week.

Went down to spar to get food, none in the house it's (fortnightly) payday today. No milk, bread, eggs, fruit or veg in town at all. People everywhere wigging out and arguing with each other. Thought a riot was on the cards.

Now the family is living on fish fingers, chips, devon, bread, braised steak and onions, uht milk and weetbix for the foreseeable future.

It's like camping.

[Donweather]

Braithy, I can understand your predicament with your town cut off completely, but bugger me, the same scenarios are panning out in the outer suburbs of Brisbane completely UNAFFECTED by flood waters. The outer non-flood suburbs of Brisbane have gone completely mad.

Try buying bread, milk or fuel!!!

Have we as a society become some reliant on the ability to get food from the shop on a daily/hourly basis....don't people have freezers with food in it?

[alakaboo]

Now the family is living on fish fingers, chips, devon, bread, braised steak and onions, uht milk and weetbix for the foreseeable future.

Didn't you see a perfectly good Fresian float by recently?
If it's really turning into the wild east, then grab a lassoo!

Sounds like you're the man in the know then alakaboo.

Fark, I hope not!
I'd hate to be in charge of Wivenhoe at the moment. Trying to balance the need to release with the need to hold back the water.

At the moment they've got a stack of water in Somerset which isn't designed to overflow and is sketchy, Wivenhoe's still rising, but they're trying to keep it back so that the Lockyer water can move through. If they let more water go, Ipswich cops it due to backup. If they don't, they have to release it later in the day so it's heading downstream closer to high tide, and Brisbane cops it.
Fark everything up and Wivenhoe drops its bundle and everyone's stuffed.

Damned if you do...