Internet, phones and crowds

[ajohnsen]

Don't worry about it. If the Coalition gets in they'll scrap the NBN and we'll go back to the days of a photo taking fifteen minutes to load.

Ergo, all locals should vote for Abbott.

[lovenutz]

mmmmmm I quite like the fore casting....

Think I will be come down with some sort of viral infection late next week...

[el rancho]

if you cant read a MSLP forcast chart and work it out yourself you're a peanut.

CW and SN are pretty much useless if you want to plan anything more than 2 days out anyhow.

[Nick Carroll]

I may be having a whinge and the horse has already bolted but if as I've already said before if we generalise the reports and don't all ring our mates when we find waves then it may just help a little to lessen the crowd.

I reckon it might be the other way round.

Been doing a lot of actual research into this subject over the past coupla months for a series on another website (yes ASL) and discovered something amazing but true: the actual number of surfers in Australia over the past decade has not increased nearly as much as we might all think. Probably gone up by 10% or a bit less.

What HAS happened is that certain spots -- not many, but some -- have become "ultracrowded"...in other words, there's been a concentration of effort on a few select breaks, while many other waves go rolling on by semi unridden.

These certain spots -- places like Snapper, the Pass, Lennox, Avoca, Avalon, the Manly stretch, Bondi, etc -- all have a sort of toxic combination of things going for them. They tick all or a majority of the following boxes: forecast predictability, surf-cams, proximity to population, media exposure, reputation, ease of access. As a result they get so crowded at times that the typical hierarchy within a surf spot, constructed through skill, confidence, local knowledge and a sorta vague mutual understanding of who gets what, breaks down irreparably. That's an Ultracrowd, and that's when surfing gets dangerous -- when people crash into each other and cause life threatening injury, when the stress level rises way beyond the enjoyment level, when people begin to behave in a manically selfish fashion.

You've gotta think that there's another ingredient in the formation of Ultracrowds, and that's inexperience. Evidence suggests that there's a consistent turnaround in surf populations -- that while a proportion of surfers are committed and life long lunatics, a large proportion tend to last around three years in the sport before letting it slide for whatever reason (work? school? moving inland?). That 10% increase over the past 10 years masks a far greater number of start-ups than would at first appear; they're replacing the part timers and quitters. And surfers who haven't been at it very long are naturally prone to following the herd. They may not even really "see" a crowd before they paddle out; they just see people surfing and figure that's where they should be.

Ultracrowding isn't the Internet or whatever, it's human behaviour, and people change their behaviour over time. Maybe the best hope for everyone involved is that more of us learn to go look around the corner rather than just follow the pack.

[Nick Carroll]

^^^The above btw is why I am pretty dubious about artificial waves being the panacea for crowds. Make a good artificial wave, and guess what. It becomes a magnet. It doesn't diffuse crowding, it creates one.

[roundhouse]

I agree with not naming spots in forecasts. Keep with the directions etc and let people join the dots.

Saturday was a different affair. The spot in question was about the only place within an hour or two which really handled the conditions well. If the swell was from the east i doubt there would of been half the crowd.

[Grooter]

Gotta agree with Nick here, the same phenomenon definitely applies to well known surf-breaks in Victoria as well with respect to Ultracrowds. Places like Pt Leo and Flinders can be a mecca for inexperienced riders on smaller days although in recent years I've noticed a lot of inexperienced riders at places like Gunnamatta and Rye as well. All those places are featured on Swellnet, get heaps of exposure and have surf cams on them.

This summer just gone Gunna got pretty packed on some mornings but the skill level on average was really low, I'm not a great surfer but it almost seemed like there was only me and a few other guys that were getting all the waves at times despite the large numbers. I don't know about places up north, but I'm willing to bet Tassie and SA, like Vicco, get a lot more seasonal surfers (those who only ride in the summer) because the cold water keeps all but the hardened surfers away from the water in the winter months - meaning the skill level goes up and the natural order pretty much sorts itself out.

I reckon artificial reefs are good for year-round surfers - provided they don't surf them of course, because a nice predictable reef is going to draw the tourists which will keep them away from the usual spots they now frequent. I reckon they could be a great solution to crowding for experienced surfers and would definitely help to lower the levels of aggro.

Humans are pack animals, we have a natural inclination to follow the crowd, people who don't surf much or are new and inexperienced, are always going to surf where the most surfers are. I know that because it's what I used to do when I first started surfing. But nine times out of ten a short 10 minute walk down the beach or around a point will provide you with a relatively uncrowded spot. Either that or try and surf mid-week, outside of school holidays you'd be lucky to be surfing with more than 5 other people at well known breaks in Vicco in the middle of winter.

[alakaboo]

Been doing a lot of actual research into this subject over the past coupla months for a series on another website (yes ASL) and discovered something amazing but true: the actual number of surfers in Australia over the past decade has not increased nearly as much as we might all think. Probably gone up by 10% or a bit less.

nick, where are you getting your data for this research?
i'm doing some work at the moment in a related field, so i've got a fair idea of what public and private data is available (and more importantly, what isn't) and while I don't disagree with what your saying, I can only assume there's some 'joining of the dots' going on.

and in terms of Snapper, orientation and protection from the S winds is pretty key there...

send me a pm if you prefer

[still here]

Signage at a semi secret spot a couple years back read ,
STOP RING-INS
PADDLE OUT , DON'T CELL OUT .

says it all .

[steve shearer]

Unfortunatly we have living in our area one of the internet forcasters (blow-in surf forcaster or BSF as we call him) who was only too happy to stop the Search comp due to it bringing crowds but then sells us out on the internet surf forcast,......... BSF then rags on surf comps but then does a report on the Quicky and Bells. Where is your bread buttered, got be in one camp or the other, so you don't look hypocritical by my way of thinking.

Just for the record HL I opposed the Search event on the following grounds:

No infrastructure at the Point to handle massive crowds ; therefore environmental damage.

Huge disruption to local traffic.

Recreational surfers locked out of a Surf Reserve for what amounts to a month in reality.

Precedent set for the Point to become a Professional surf venue.

Increase in crowding by a multiplying factor due to worldwide exposure.

Now you know as well as I do that this is a surf town and local businessess depend on surf tourism. It won't be eliminated and therefore it must be managed so next time Rip Curl comes to Ballina Shire Council with a fistful of dollars the Contest can be refuted on sound economic grounds. IE there is a sustainable surf tourism in the town and this contest is total overkill.
Arguments by Rip Curl that this is a one off event have been shown by recent history to completely false. IE the Portugal Search event has now become a yearly event.
There's a world of difference mate between having to battle 50 Qld'ers on a Saturday and being completely locked out of the Point by security guards for a month during prime swell season.

I sat on the Point with Brocky the day before that Sat and there were 12-15 blokes out enjoying not A-grade but bloody good surf. This was the first or even second day of the swell.
Swells leading up to this event( the first "real" south swell of the season) have been remarkably uncrowded despite being foreecast on the Internet days in advance.
Weekends are crowded, have been for 30 years.
After the creation of the Superbank in 01/02 the surf was the least crowded it's been for 20 years because every cnut was drawn to the hype of the Superbank.

I can see how writing about Surf Comps while opposing them in my own backyard can be seen as hypocritical. I admit to being equal parts fascinated and repulsed by Pro Surfing.
Whilst I comment on it and take the Piss out of it and ocassionally get caught up in the drama surrounding a great performance I don't consider myself a Pro Surfing Propagandist.
Quite the contrary. If Pro Surfing disappeared off the Map tomorrow I'd be the first one writing an RIP obituary.
Like a war correspondent is fascinated with War it can't be taken as Prima Facie evidence that they support the concept wholeheartedly.
To my mind Pro surfing is a hungry beast that needs to be kept on a very short leash in a very confined paddock with constant surveiilance. Left to it's own devices it can wreak enormous havoc.

I'll be interested to see Nick Carrolls research methods because to my mind these arguments are anecdotal and without numbers behind them depend on who you talk to.

[steve shearer]

Unfortunatly we have living in our area one of the internet forcasters (blow-in surf forcaster or BSF as we call him) who was only too happy to stop the Search comp due to it bringing crowds but then sells us out on the internet surf forcast, pictures and all. Car loads of bunnies th

is this one of the offending pictures

No it's not. Thats not where you think it is.

[matt...]

I may be having a whinge and the horse has already bolted but if as I've already said before if we generalise the reports and don't all ring our mates when we find waves then it may just help a little to lessen the crowd.

I reckon it might be the other way round.

Been doing a lot of actual research into this subject over the past coupla months for a series on another website (yes ASL) and discovered something amazing but true: the actual number of surfers in Australia over the past decade has not increased nearly as much as we might all think. Probably gone up by 10% or a bit less.

What HAS happened is that certain spots -- not many, but some -- have become "ultracrowded"...in other words, there's been a concentration of effort on a few select breaks, while many other waves go rolling on by semi unridden.

These certain spots -- places like Snapper, the Pass, Lennox, Avoca, Avalon, the Manly stretch, Bondi, etc -- all have a sort of toxic combination of things going for them. They tick all or a majority of the following boxes: forecast predictability, surf-cams, proximity to population, media exposure, reputation, ease of access. As a result they get so crowded at times that the typical hierarchy within a surf spot, constructed through skill, confidence, local knowledge and a sorta vague mutual understanding of who gets what, breaks down irreparably. That's an Ultracrowd, and that's when surfing gets dangerous -- when people crash into each other and cause life threatening injury, when the stress level rises way beyond the enjoyment level, when people begin to behave in a manically selfish fashion.

You've gotta think that there's another ingredient in the formation of Ultracrowds, and that's inexperience. Evidence suggests that there's a consistent turnaround in surf populations -- that while a proportion of surfers are committed and life long lunatics, a large proportion tend to last around three years in the sport before letting it slide for whatever reason (work? school? moving inland?). That 10% increase over the past 10 years masks a far greater number of start-ups than would at first appear; they're replacing the part timers and quitters. And surfers who haven't been at it very long are naturally prone to following the herd. They may not even really "see" a crowd before they paddle out; they just see people surfing and figure that's where they should be.

Ultracrowding isn't the Internet or whatever, it's human behaviour, and people change their behaviour over time. Maybe the best hope for everyone involved is that more of us learn to go look around the corner rather than just follow the pack.

i totally agree with HEADLANDER on the idea & logic behind the creation of this thread - and FWIW i would never ring a mate to blab about surf conditions.
Meeting up with mates & then go searching is what the fun's all about - even if you have to drive 2.5 hours north to get it by mid morning!

but Nick, your observations might be true to Avalon, The Pass, etc, but what I"VE noticed with the sunny central coast is that while crowds have stayed about the same, the number of good surfers has actually decreased. Maybe they are being more adventurous than myself in where they surf? dunno.
Certainly phones/internet contribute to secret & semi-scret spots being over exposed, but at the points & beachies, I've found it easier to get more quality waves, cos there is less good talent out there.
More gumbies = more wave selection errors, positioning errors, and timing errors on their part. sure they may get in the way more often, but they are not much of a challenge in the take off spots (if they can find them, let alone stay in them)
but I've found less heckling time from good surfers. cos we all know if you have 10 good surfers on the point, they had better know each other otherwise people are gunna miss out on some waves.
But if there's 20 gumbies on the same point, there's more chance for a good surfer to snag some good waves.

Just another perspective. I can imagine my theory is NOT applicable to the superbank where numbers seem to be astronomical beyond belief.

[Nick Carroll]

But if there's 20 gumbies on the same point, there's more chance for a good surfer to snag some good waves.

Just another perspective. I can imagine my theory is NOT applicable to the superbank where numbers seem to be astronomical beyond belief.

yeah matt exactly, 20 peope are one thing but if there's 120 people surfing a spot it doesn't matter if they're good, bad or indifferent, it all turns to shit anyway.

Fascinating stuff though, it's one of the sport's big issues for sure.

[alakaboo]

I can imagine my theory is NOT applicable to the superbank where numbers seem to be astronomical beyond belief.

strangely, i find crowded superbank one of the easiest places to get waves.
much easier than a peaky break in sydney where 5 decent surfers can pretty much monopolise the sets!

sure, i'm normally down at the greenmount end, a good paddler on a higher volume board, and i watch at least 3 sets come through before i know who's going to make the section and who isn't, but i still get waves.

think it comes down to which waves your wanting too...

[Headlander]

A couple of points I'd like to comment on.
Steve after reading your coments and such, I think your heart is in the right place but what I couldn't get over was you didn't want crowds of people at Lennox for the search and it's aftermarth but then you were promoting other comps and helping crowd it (lennox) with the reports. You have since cleared that up and I comend you on that.
Also, we have had swell that has been forecast that hasn't been that crowded but of cause those swells were from a direction where basically everywhere has waves to spread the crowds but when the south swell is forecast every man and his dog is on it.

AS others have said, people can't see the crowd any more and just go out thereby adding to it,making the Ultra-crowd (thanks Nick). If you can't get a car park people it must be fcuking too crowded so look elsewhere, don't think you can just hassel for waves, it will stuff everyones surf.

More importantly, why the hell would NSW pick Idris when he can't tackle for the Bulldogs.What chance has he got tackling anybody from Queensland running at him. I think we could be in trouble before we even start.

[purple pyramids]

....
PS, I know it must be lonely being on ur own and a complete asswipe.

no one's doubting you know the feeling.

[Shoulder hopper]

Big Kahuna, WTF are you on? I think the doseage is a little high, you need to cut back a bit before it kills you!

[SDC]

I'll have a dozen of what he's on!!!