RealSurf Surfers' Forum

steve shearer wrote:Surf forecasting cops it from both ends.
When's it right it's accused of encouraging "ultra" crowds.
When it's wrong smug experts ejaculate in a frenzy of self-congratulatory masturbation.

nuffink ngo wrote:Trogs that rely on internet surf reports get what they deserve.

So what do you do nuffink? Rely on internet weather charts, or worse still, that joke sometimes referred to as WAMS, so you don't actually have to think?

Or is it a tea leaf reading session from you?

steve shearer wrote: I'd love to see one of these armchair experts submit a month's worth of 3 and 5 day forecasts to public scrutiny and see how they go.
My guess would be about 30-50 percent accuracy.
Sure you'd pick up the low hanging fruit and the wounded and sick antelope on the savannah. The easy kills.

Bout right i reckon.
I doff my hat to the forecasters who stick their names on weekly surf predictions and publish it for the all the shiny-arse desk jockeys. They do a great job reading the entrails and are pretty reliable most of the time.

How many RS's actually do the math on fetch lengths and wind strengths to accurately gauge swell size and due date? Gut feel and rule of thumb is ok when looking at the BOM charts but i sure as shit wouldn't want my half arsed guess work published for all the world to poke shit at. (even if it was right )

well I have great sympathy for those engaged in making public surf predictions on Australia's east coast.

but what the hell here we go re the next one.

The low will form too close to the coast to develop any swell at first but there'll be a fair bit of infeed from the NNE fetch outside. Sunday could be kinda epic at spots nth of the low centre, let's swing out and say anywhere north of the Gong. Ie good winds and some swell, with the new banks, it might be real magic.

A lot of swell south of there on Sunday, overnight especially.

Monday will be overpredicted, not as big as currently forecast.

Another low will crystallise later in the week, north of Pt Macquarie, and blow it off the fcuken map. Serious impact at spots south of there from the ENE.

It's amazing the difference the wind makes both ends of my local bay were firing on the fifteenth with a SE swell and a SW wind either ends shots were taken within 30 minutes of each othe the northern end was meaty and crowded with the local power surfers, the pristine barrel riders hit the other end and got out sped all down the line at a much more photogenic spot. Today the picture was reversed NE winds offshore blowing the smel off the beach side BBQed steak and onions through the line up.

Nick Carroll wrote:well I have great sympathy for those engaged in making public surf predictions on Australia's east coast.

but what the hell here we go re the next one.

The low will form too close to the coast to develop any swell at first but there'll be a fair bit of infeed from the NNE fetch outside. Sunday could be kinda epic at spots nth of the low centre, let's swing out and say anywhere north of the Gong. Ie good winds and some swell, with the new banks, it might be real magic.

A lot of swell south of there on Sunday, overnight especially.

Monday will be overpredicted, not as big as currently forecast.

Another low will crystallise later in the week, north of Pt Macquarie, and blow it off the fcuken map. Serious impact at spots south of there from the ENE.

There you go. Carroll's put his balls on the chopping block.
Anyone else wanna make an a priori call........imagine the satisfaction of getting it right.

We're sort of seeing a 2007 Redux but minus the perfect track(and intensity) that the 07 storms took.
So far these ones are expending too much energy close in...rushing out to NZ and sort of getting half stuck in the lee of NZ.
We need more stalling in the central Tasman.

Nick Carroll wrote:Another low will crystallise later in the week, north of Pt Macquarie, and blow it off the fcuken map. Serious impact at spots south of there from the ENE.

Had a look at the forecast charts and although they didn't indicate that this would happen, it occurred to me that there was a chance of one of those bombs developing.

Purely by instinct, no particularly rational thought about it.

I'm with Nick for a second low late in the week, currently not forecast as far as I am aware, just off the northern NSW coast.

Odds of it happening must be long, though.

C'mon Olds, your just shadowing Carroll.

Thats an each way bet.
If he's right you share the glory.
If he's wrong you vanish and says "it was 'im Sir".

otway1949 wrote:

Bar Day.jpg

It's amazing the difference the wind makes both ends of my local bay were firing on the fifteenth with a SE swell and a SW wind either ends shots were taken within 30 minutes of each othe the northern end was meaty and crowded with the local power surfers, the pristine barrel riders hit the other end and got out sped all down the line at a much more photogenic spot. Today the picture was reversed NE winds offshore blowing the smel off the beach side BBQed steak and onions through the line up.

Impressive!

Ive had a week out of the surf due to being sick, and havent been on here in a while due to commitments, but I can tell during the long swell run we had the bays my way were fantastic, just cranking, the right amount of sand moved into the left handers making some growling bowling barrells. Its been awesome, I know its flat now but hey Im to sick to surf anyway, will be back in the water next week though. Copped my first depression on the bottom of the board as well due to hitting some rocks.

Had a paddle out to old woman with fong and loved it, surf was crap but the paddle was nice and intend to do it often now. But will take my 6.10 out there as easier to paddle the long distance.

Well my forecast's out there and now it's just a waiting game to see what eventuates..

SAsurfa wrote:Well my forecast's out there and now it's just a waiting game to see what eventuates..

15ft on monday down south, eh?

All depends on how the low forms but it's looking to become very large on the far South Coast.

The swell will be raw and ragged down there and with gale-force onshore winds and torrential rain I wouldn't wanna be around.

South winds or SE winds?

surfed out front early...wind efffected but nearly 4 ft...i was scared

the points have 2 ft dribblers on low tide...and a 100 frothing mal riders to match

and on the orginal topic....i have repaired my old yellow fish ( after digger thu it over the rocks new years day in a hissy fit...little bitch he is) and they say abstance makes the heart grow fonder

and it's true...it goes unreal...i'm surfing so well on it....it's just one "those "boards

the holy grail

the magic board

...

Sydney South today-

Gunnamatta

Got better as the tide filled it and smoothed out the swell. Was a modest 2 - 3 foot, nothing special.

Left the Hatch (no pun intended) on the car open as I reversed into the garage when I got home. Smashed the fcuk out of it and now I have a $500 excess bill and most likely a two week wait for the car. If the Demons lose in the footy today I'm not going to be a nice person to be around. Fuck.

Go the BEARS!