Where did you surf today ?

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pridmore
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by pridmore » Wed May 26, 2010 4:34 pm

some really fun 3-4 ft lefts at one of my fav spots, offshore was blowing a bit strong but no complaints here...will post a pic or 2 later....maybe :D hoping for more of the same tomoz..... :D

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Davros
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by Davros » Wed May 26, 2010 5:58 pm

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munch
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by munch » Wed May 26, 2010 6:13 pm

Go to BEARS!
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Natho
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by Natho » Wed May 26, 2010 7:51 pm

Got some goodies in the 6 - 8 foot range and offshore just after lunch...but it all ended in tears when I busted one of my prized boards :oops: :cry: . Yeh so much foor the surf report saying 3 - 4 foot with onshore winds.

Red October
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by Red October » Wed May 26, 2010 10:50 pm

Up early for a speculator.4-5 foot, baby-bum smooth,3-5 turns per wave. Dont you love when they get it wrong!

Nick Carroll
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by Nick Carroll » Thu May 27, 2010 8:54 am

^^^or just a lesson in the unpredictability of this coastline.

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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by J-P » Thu May 27, 2010 10:39 am

Was quite good up here in the Hunter yesterday (Wed) until about 5pm when the wind finally came up. :D
No takers this morning with a screaming South Easter blowing.

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steve shearer
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by steve shearer » Thu May 27, 2010 4:17 pm

FFS, can we have some fcuking reality here.

I'd like to see these armchair hindcasting experts come out the day before and say "hey, you know there's a chance that compared to ALL available weather model data the low may actually stall slightly and give a window of super fast rising E swell and offshore outflow from the northern axis"

Whats that?
These systems are deeply and inherently unpredictable and small fluctuations in track path, speed, intensity and timing can have large differences on surf outcomes at any given location.

Surf forecasting cops it from both ends.
When's it right it's accused of encouraging "ultra" crowds.
When it's wrong smug experts ejaculate in a frenzy of self-congratulatory masturbation.

Those who think forecasting can be done from a cursory examination of the BOM MSLP charts are living in fairyland.
I'd love to see one of these armchair experts submit a month's worth of 3 and 5 day forecasts to public scrutiny and see how they go.
My guess would be about 30-50 percent accuracy.
Sure you'd pick up the low hanging fruit and the wounded and sick antelope on the savannah. The easy kills.

Surf forecasting is a body of applied knowledge which deals with probabilities and likely outcomes. Those who understand this use the error range inherent unpredictability(esp of East Coast short range systems) and score uncrowded surf.
Observation and insight is as justly rewarded now as ever, if not more so.

So experts, anyone prepared to make a call in advance on this next low scheduled to push off the coast?
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oldman
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by oldman » Thu May 27, 2010 5:17 pm

steve shearer wrote:Surf forecasting cops it from both ends.
When's it right it's accused of encouraging "ultra" crowds.
When it's wrong smug experts ejaculate in a frenzy of self-congratulatory masturbation.
nuffink ngo wrote:Trogs that rely on internet surf reports get what they deserve.
So what do you do nuffink? Rely on internet weather charts, or worse still, that joke sometimes referred to as WAMS, so you don't actually have to think?

Or is it a tea leaf reading session from you?
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black duck
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by black duck » Thu May 27, 2010 6:21 pm

steve shearer wrote: I'd love to see one of these armchair experts submit a month's worth of 3 and 5 day forecasts to public scrutiny and see how they go.
My guess would be about 30-50 percent accuracy.
Sure you'd pick up the low hanging fruit and the wounded and sick antelope on the savannah. The easy kills.
Bout right i reckon.
I doff my hat to the forecasters who stick their names on weekly surf predictions and publish it for the all the shiny-arse desk jockeys. They do a great job reading the entrails and are pretty reliable most of the time.

How many RS's actually do the math on fetch lengths and wind strengths to accurately gauge swell size and due date? Gut feel and rule of thumb is ok when looking at the BOM charts but i sure as shit wouldn't want my half arsed guess work published for all the world to poke shit at. (even if it was right )
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by Nick Carroll » Thu May 27, 2010 6:40 pm

well I have great sympathy for those engaged in making public surf predictions on Australia's east coast.

but what the hell here we go re the next one.

The low will form too close to the coast to develop any swell at first but there'll be a fair bit of infeed from the NNE fetch outside. Sunday could be kinda epic at spots nth of the low centre, let's swing out and say anywhere north of the Gong. Ie good winds and some swell, with the new banks, it might be real magic.

A lot of swell south of there on Sunday, overnight especially.

Monday will be overpredicted, not as big as currently forecast.

Another low will crystallise later in the week, north of Pt Macquarie, and blow it off the fcuken map. Serious impact at spots south of there from the ENE.

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otway1949
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by otway1949 » Thu May 27, 2010 10:15 pm

:D
Bar Day.jpg
rough end of the bay
It's amazing the difference the wind makes both ends of my local bay were firing on the fifteenth with a SE swell and a SW wind either ends shots were taken within 30 minutes of each othe the northern end was meaty and crowded with the local power surfers, the pristine barrel riders hit the other end and got out sped all down the line at a much more photogenic spot. Today the picture was reversed NE winds offshore blowing the smel off the beach side BBQed steak and onions through the line up. :D
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same bay same day otherway
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steve shearer
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by steve shearer » Fri May 28, 2010 11:39 am

Nick Carroll wrote:well I have great sympathy for those engaged in making public surf predictions on Australia's east coast.

but what the hell here we go re the next one.

The low will form too close to the coast to develop any swell at first but there'll be a fair bit of infeed from the NNE fetch outside. Sunday could be kinda epic at spots nth of the low centre, let's swing out and say anywhere north of the Gong. Ie good winds and some swell, with the new banks, it might be real magic.

A lot of swell south of there on Sunday, overnight especially.

Monday will be overpredicted, not as big as currently forecast.

Another low will crystallise later in the week, north of Pt Macquarie, and blow it off the fcuken map. Serious impact at spots south of there from the ENE.

There you go. Carroll's put his balls on the chopping block.
Anyone else wanna make an a priori call........imagine the satisfaction of getting it right.

We're sort of seeing a 2007 Redux but minus the perfect track(and intensity) that the 07 storms took.
So far these ones are expending too much energy close in...rushing out to NZ and sort of getting half stuck in the lee of NZ.
We need more stalling in the central Tasman.
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oldman
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by oldman » Fri May 28, 2010 11:51 am

Nick Carroll wrote:Another low will crystallise later in the week, north of Pt Macquarie, and blow it off the fcuken map. Serious impact at spots south of there from the ENE.
Had a look at the forecast charts and although they didn't indicate that this would happen, it occurred to me that there was a chance of one of those bombs developing.

Purely by instinct, no particularly rational thought about it.

I'm with Nick for a second low late in the week, currently not forecast as far as I am aware, just off the northern NSW coast.

Odds of it happening must be long, though.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

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steve shearer
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by steve shearer » Fri May 28, 2010 11:57 am

C'mon Olds, your just shadowing Carroll.

Thats an each way bet.
If he's right you share the glory.
If he's wrong you vanish and says "it was 'im Sir".
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Grooter
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by Grooter » Fri May 28, 2010 12:09 pm

otway1949 wrote::D
Bar Day.jpg
It's amazing the difference the wind makes both ends of my local bay were firing on the fifteenth with a SE swell and a SW wind either ends shots were taken within 30 minutes of each othe the northern end was meaty and crowded with the local power surfers, the pristine barrel riders hit the other end and got out sped all down the line at a much more photogenic spot. Today the picture was reversed NE winds offshore blowing the smel off the beach side BBQed steak and onions through the line up. :D
Impressive!
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by diggerdickson » Fri May 28, 2010 1:08 pm

Ive had a week out of the surf due to being sick, and havent been on here in a while due to commitments, but I can tell during the long swell run we had the bays my way were fantastic, just cranking, the right amount of sand moved into the left handers making some growling bowling barrells. Its been awesome, I know its flat now but hey Im to sick to surf anyway, will be back in the water next week though. Copped my first depression on the bottom of the board as well due to hitting some rocks.

Had a paddle out to old woman with fong and loved it, surf was crap but the paddle was nice and intend to do it often now. But will take my 6.10 out there as easier to paddle the long distance.
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SAsurfa
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Re: Where did you surf today ?

Post by SAsurfa » Fri May 28, 2010 1:22 pm

Well my forecast's out there and now it's just a waiting game to see what eventuates..

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