No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
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- crabmeat thompson
- Huey's Right Hand
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
someone will correct me if i'm wrong here, but working sheerly off memory, this looks cyclone sose-esque?
Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
I sold my 6'8" last week to a pommy guy who was upgrading from a seven foot long 7S fish.
That was my sacrifice to the wave gods, you are all very welcome.
Now Tonks, still got that 6'7" for sale?
That was my sacrifice to the wave gods, you are all very welcome.
Now Tonks, still got that 6'7" for sale?
Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
The long range charts (10 days +) I don't really pay attention to but once the charts get to around 7 days out, am I correct in saying they are pretty accurate?
Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
I've got my 6'4" single ready to go.
Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Almost certainly.
BTW I just found out that my mail account was deleted this week so all the emails I sent about it are in purgatory. I'll follow up tomorrow.
BTW I just found out that my mail account was deleted this week so all the emails I sent about it are in purgatory. I'll follow up tomorrow.
- crabmeat thompson
- Huey's Right Hand
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Less than one week from now shit could get pretty interesting, hopefully.
http://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/140 ... -mid-march
http://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/140 ... -mid-march
Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Beanpole
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
- steve shearer
- BUTTONMEISTER
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Cool your jets boys.
On currrent modelling this is No Sose.
You need more than wind speed and fetch length for a decent cyclone swell. You need the correct track. Out of all those three parameters I would rate track as the most important.
This system is behind the island chains of Vanuatu and New Cal for a significant portion of it's early evolution: shadowed. Not a significant swell generator until it comes clear of Grand Terre Fri, with strongest winds very much on the northern and nor-eastern flank, aimed at targets well to the south.
Then it tracks due south, then is whisked away to the SE, obliquely to the circle paths in the eastern swell window. That means swell generation and propagation is severely duration limited as it whisks across the swell window.
For a Sose and any significant cyclone swell there must be a movement back towards the SW or even W so that fetch is aligned with direction of movement and circle paths.
Models could change but based on current track my froth is a 4/10.
I'm more interested in the QLD system to be honest.
Sose track: note the SW then W movement back into the swell window (just as it underwent ETT).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_So ... _track.png
On currrent modelling this is No Sose.
You need more than wind speed and fetch length for a decent cyclone swell. You need the correct track. Out of all those three parameters I would rate track as the most important.
This system is behind the island chains of Vanuatu and New Cal for a significant portion of it's early evolution: shadowed. Not a significant swell generator until it comes clear of Grand Terre Fri, with strongest winds very much on the northern and nor-eastern flank, aimed at targets well to the south.
Then it tracks due south, then is whisked away to the SE, obliquely to the circle paths in the eastern swell window. That means swell generation and propagation is severely duration limited as it whisks across the swell window.
For a Sose and any significant cyclone swell there must be a movement back towards the SW or even W so that fetch is aligned with direction of movement and circle paths.
Models could change but based on current track my froth is a 4/10.
I'm more interested in the QLD system to be honest.
Sose track: note the SW then W movement back into the swell window (just as it underwent ETT).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_So ... _track.png
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- steve shearer
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Ben McCartney doesn't seem to know the difference between the Coral Sea and South Pacific. Thats a pretty fundamental error for an East Coast forecaster.Hatchnam wrote:Less than one week from now shit could get pretty interesting, hopefully.
http://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/140 ... -mid-march
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Thanks for pointing that out . It's the first time I've even hit the CW in years . Perhaps that's a good thing
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Steve. Just wondering if you can answer my question that's been puzzling me over the last few days. Why are the winds the strongest on the N and NE flank of this girl when she has a high cradling her SE flank? Just seems counter intuitive to me?
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Also I reckon there'd have to be some novelty breaks light up from PAM at the top end of NZ!!!
- steve shearer
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Donweather wrote:Steve. Just wondering if you can answer my question that's been puzzling me over the last few days. Why are the winds the strongest on the N and NE flank of this girl when she has a high cradling her SE flank? Just seems counter intuitive to me?
Because of the very strong MJO signal which is correlated with very strong monsoonal W to NW surge. Not that uncommon.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- crabmeat thompson
- Huey's Right Hand
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
so the little baby cyclone off the north qld coast ... a few models are calling that to go cat 4 or 5 and hug the coast. i wonder how far south she can make it under that scenario before she fizzes?
- steve shearer
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
yeah, thats the far more interesting scenario at this stage.
although to be honest, I'd be happy for any coast hugging cyclone to go the way of the dodo
although to be honest, I'd be happy for any coast hugging cyclone to go the way of the dodo
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- crabmeat thompson
- Huey's Right Hand
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- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 3:57 pm
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
Yeah me too. I won't no part of that one.
Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.
What's the odds of that sucker tracking south down the coast and smashing us Steve?steve shearer wrote:yeah, thats the far more interesting scenario at this stage.
although to be honest, I'd be happy for any coast hugging cyclone to go the way of the dodo
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