No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

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crabmeat thompson
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by crabmeat thompson » Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:38 pm

someone will correct me if i'm wrong here, but working sheerly off memory, this looks cyclone sose-esque?


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Kunji wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 8:09 am
Would you mind throwing in a little more homoeroticism

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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by alakaboo » Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:42 pm

I sold my 6'8" last week to a pommy guy who was upgrading from a seven foot long 7S fish.

That was my sacrifice to the wave gods, you are all very welcome.

Now Tonks, still got that 6'7" for sale?

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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by channels » Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:48 pm

The long range charts (10 days +) I don't really pay attention to but once the charts get to around 7 days out, am I correct in saying they are pretty accurate?

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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by alakaboo » Fri Mar 06, 2015 4:42 pm

I've got my 6'4" single ready to go.

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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by alakaboo » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:46 pm

Almost certainly.

BTW I just found out that my mail account was deleted this week so all the emails I sent about it are in purgatory. I'll follow up tomorrow.

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crabmeat thompson
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by crabmeat thompson » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:49 pm

See you there boo.
Kunji wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 8:09 am
Would you mind throwing in a little more homoeroticism

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Hatchnam
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by Hatchnam » Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:22 am

Less than one week from now shit could get pretty interesting, hopefully.

http://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/140 ... -mid-march
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by Trev » Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:33 pm

Beanpole
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I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.

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steve shearer
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by steve shearer » Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:08 pm

Cool your jets boys.

On currrent modelling this is No Sose.

You need more than wind speed and fetch length for a decent cyclone swell. You need the correct track. Out of all those three parameters I would rate track as the most important.
This system is behind the island chains of Vanuatu and New Cal for a significant portion of it's early evolution: shadowed. Not a significant swell generator until it comes clear of Grand Terre Fri, with strongest winds very much on the northern and nor-eastern flank, aimed at targets well to the south.
Then it tracks due south, then is whisked away to the SE, obliquely to the circle paths in the eastern swell window. That means swell generation and propagation is severely duration limited as it whisks across the swell window.

For a Sose and any significant cyclone swell there must be a movement back towards the SW or even W so that fetch is aligned with direction of movement and circle paths.

Models could change but based on current track my froth is a 4/10.
I'm more interested in the QLD system to be honest.

Sose track: note the SW then W movement back into the swell window (just as it underwent ETT).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_So ... _track.png
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steve shearer
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by steve shearer » Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:51 pm

Hatchnam wrote:Less than one week from now shit could get pretty interesting, hopefully.

http://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/140 ... -mid-march
Ben McCartney doesn't seem to know the difference between the Coral Sea and South Pacific. Thats a pretty fundamental error for an East Coast forecaster.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by Hatchnam » Mon Mar 09, 2015 3:03 pm

Thanks for pointing that out . It's the first time I've even hit the CW in years . Perhaps that's a good thing
Sniff wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:39 am
Not enough for a full handbeak
steve shearer wrote:full dionysian hand jive body torque

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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by Donweather » Mon Mar 09, 2015 3:59 pm

Steve. Just wondering if you can answer my question that's been puzzling me over the last few days. Why are the winds the strongest on the N and NE flank of this girl when she has a high cradling her SE flank? Just seems counter intuitive to me?

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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by Donweather » Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:12 pm

Also I reckon there'd have to be some novelty breaks light up from PAM at the top end of NZ!!!

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steve shearer
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by steve shearer » Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:34 pm

Donweather wrote:Steve. Just wondering if you can answer my question that's been puzzling me over the last few days. Why are the winds the strongest on the N and NE flank of this girl when she has a high cradling her SE flank? Just seems counter intuitive to me?

Because of the very strong MJO signal which is correlated with very strong monsoonal W to NW surge. Not that uncommon.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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crabmeat thompson
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by crabmeat thompson » Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:24 pm

so the little baby cyclone off the north qld coast ... a few models are calling that to go cat 4 or 5 and hug the coast. i wonder how far south she can make it under that scenario before she fizzes?


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Kunji wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 8:09 am
Would you mind throwing in a little more homoeroticism

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steve shearer
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by steve shearer » Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:33 pm

yeah, thats the far more interesting scenario at this stage.

although to be honest, I'd be happy for any coast hugging cyclone to go the way of the dodo
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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crabmeat thompson
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by crabmeat thompson » Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:14 pm

Yeah me too. I won't no part of that one.
Kunji wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 8:09 am
Would you mind throwing in a little more homoeroticism

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Wubic Pig
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Re: No spring nor summer beauty hath such grace as I have seen in one autumnal face.

Post by Wubic Pig » Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:27 pm

steve shearer wrote:yeah, thats the far more interesting scenario at this stage.

although to be honest, I'd be happy for any coast hugging cyclone to go the way of the dodo
What's the odds of that sucker tracking south down the coast and smashing us Steve?

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