Summer 15 -- enter the el niño

[crabmeat thompson]

yeah the mouth of the creek here is flushed with it. cornflake weed for sure.

[foamy]

I swam at Mooloolaba Beach on Christmas morning. Crowded, with an enjoyable bodysurfing wave. Quite a bit of brown seaweed. Not cornflake, I think. I don't know what cornflake seaweed is. This seaweed was 15 to 30 cm long, multi branched, scalloped, browny-green seaweed.
Found a spot with a dense patch between the bank and the beach. That kept the people away from that spot. Had a lot of fun, riding waves to the beach with few human obstacles. Good fun, thanks to the seaweed.
Walking back out thru the seaweed patch was very sensual.

[steve shearer]

did it have floating vesicles at the termination of the branches?

[foamy]

did it have floating vesicles at the termination of the branches?

I didn't notice any vesicles or varicoceles, though I didn't palpate.

I kind of ignored the seaweed because;
1). I don't mind seaweed, generally, and
2). Everybody else swimming around kept mentioning it, which made me a little peevish.

[Donweather]

Well these incessant onshore winds can get fcuked...

Just embrace them.

[steve shearer]

as an improvement on the northerly cycle and containing within it's airstream many fun punchy waves.

Or don't.

One less body in the water is one way for the few to make life better for the many at this time of year.

[8]

Could be on for something 15th - 20th Jan........

[steve shearer]

typical seasonal model divergence in the face of a super active monsoon trough......there'll be vorticity of varying degrees related to small scale convection all along a trough line which extends for thousands of nautical miles. Expecting models to resolve it is fantasy.

Watch the sat map for convection that becomes organised and pay attention to any stability and convergence between and amongst model runs.

Something is happening but to what extent we'll get swell from is still a mystery bag.

[steve shearer]

probably more the latter.

way too much diurnal variation in the early stages to accurately initiate model runs that extend out tau 180 with.

[Donweather]

probably more the latter.

way too much diurnal variation in the early stages to accurately initiate model runs that extend out tau 180 with.

But I always believe them out to 384hrs!!!!

[Donweather]

Anyone care to comment on recent forecasts by GFS/ACCESS G/ACCESS R? Seems to be significant divergence between GFS and the ACCESS models.

For me, GFS seems to be handling the Gulf/Coral Sea forecasts pretty good at the moment, with EC slowly coming into line with GFS more so me thinks.

But in saying that, both GFS and EC got the NW WA low/TC wrong and that was only 3 or so days ago, so I'm not counting any chickens on any model at present.

Suffice to say, with me leaving the country on Friday 16th Jan, you can guarantee SE Qld will be pumping shortly after this!!!!

[steve shearer]

I normally hold with GFS, even under the strongest fantasy scenarios but they really do seem to be completely off with the faeries right now.

[MrMik]

Suffice to say, with me leaving the country on Friday 16th Jan, you can guarantee SE Qld will be pumping shortly after this!!!!

Thank you! I'm staying.....

[8]

Thumping NE groundswell followed by a thumping S swell.

[8]

or both together which would be pretty fruity.

[steve shearer]

Exit the El Nino

[crabmeat thompson]

Exit the El Nino

lol ... deadset. I came here to type the exact same thing.

[crabmeat thompson]

my mangoes are off the shizzle.