Page 12 of 14

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:06 am
by crabmeat thompson
Donweather wrote:
steve shearer wrote:An increase in the size, timing and strength of the inland Australia heat low. This massive mass of super-heated air is now going to influence our climate, making it more continental and less maritime. Most notably through Spring/Summer. Changing the balance between land and sea temp gradients and leading to longer and stronger northerlies episodes.
That's it, I'm moving to Tasmania!!!

God's country.

easily the best place for a surfer to live in Oz, if they like long lonely sessions, don't mind finding other outlets for long flat spells and love big raw coastlines.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:47 am
by Trev
Braithy wrote:
Donweather wrote:
steve shearer wrote:An increase in the size, timing and strength of the inland Australia heat low. This massive mass of super-heated air is now going to influence our climate, making it more continental and less maritime. Most notably through Spring/Summer. Changing the balance between land and sea temp gradients and leading to longer and stronger northerlies episodes.
That's it, I'm moving to Tasmania!!!

God's country.

easily the best place for a surfer to live in Oz, if they like long lonely sessions, don't mind finding other outlets for long flat spells and love big raw coastlines.
If I could find an old fashioned long sail board I'd buy one.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:42 pm
by Donweather
I can see a faint light at the end of the tunnel....thank feck!!!

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:16 pm
by Nick Carroll
think there's a bit of an undercall in forecast world re the deep sth fetch south of the Tasman Sea atm

that thing might surprise everyone south of Coffs on Friday

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:19 pm
by steve shearer
where Don?


And I'm with Carroll , I think this southern fetch has better than forecast potential. I like those swells......there can be some real mystery bag sessions on these swells if you're prepared to bet against the house.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:35 pm
by Donweather
steve shearer wrote:where Don?
Long range charts - eastern quadrant. Don't get me wrong Steve. Nothing epic, but certainly punching well above the November weight!!!
steve shearer wrote:And I'm with Carroll , I think this southern fetch has better than forecast potential. I like those swells......there can be some real mystery bag sessions on these swells if you're prepared to bet against the house.
Winds look pretty woeful to capture the most from this swell....at least in Nth NSW/SE Qld.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:55 pm
by Nick Carroll
steve shearer wrote:where Don?


And I'm with Carroll , I think this southern fetch has better than forecast potential. I like those swells......there can be some real mystery bag sessions on these swells if you're prepared to bet against the house.
yeah, I might get some north shore practice out the Bombie

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:13 pm
by Donweather
Some interesting comments made in the article "September 2014: Putting the Brakes on the Hype Train" further down on this page:

http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/di ... ts_117615/

Although the majority of what is said in the surfline article is already known to most keen surf forecasters.

The person that develops a WAM from ECMWF data will be a rich man IMO.

Would love to get my hands on that Halperin paper.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:51 pm
by swvic
PM me an email address and I'll send it to you

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:43 pm
by steve shearer
I've read the abstract and while it may be true EC has the greatest statistical reliability that still doesn't account for case by case model performance during the NAM.

You need to be on it and get a handle on how each model is initializing and performing subsquently.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:36 pm
by Donweather
NAM?

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 6:49 am
by steve shearer
Northern Australian Monsoon: aka cyclone season

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 1:58 pm
by crabmeat thompson
We're headed for a perilous El Niño period.

My mangoes told me.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:01 pm
by Donweather
Braithy wrote:We're headed for a perilous El Niño period.

My mangoes told me.
I thought seabreezus told you everything? :D

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:06 pm
by steve shearer
Your mangoes are as honest as Tony Abbott.

They told us last year we were going to have a monster cyclone season.

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:20 pm
by Donweather
steve shearer wrote:They told us last year we were going to have a monster cyclone season.
And a surplus!!!

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:35 pm
by Donweather
swvic wrote:PM me an email address and I'll send it to you
Thanks for the paper mate!!!

Summary is (which we kinda already knew):

"Overall, if two or more models predict TC genesis, there is a relatively low probability that all of the models are predicting an FA. Thus, the results from the various consensus experiments are better than those from any single model."

Other key statement is:

"The performance shows that the ECMWF misses many genesis events, but when the model does predict genesis, development usually occurs."

And some multi-model information:

"We also examined multiple model forecasts of genesis with three-model combinations. As expected, results from the three-model combinations generally are better than from the two-model combinations. Among the best are the GFS–NOGAPS–UKMET and the ECMWF–GFS–NOGAPS combinations, which yield a 100% chance that genesis does occur (albeit potentially at the wrong time)."

Of more interest however (and unfortunately this paper only investigated TC's in the Atlantic) is that some models have a greater success or failure rate in different areas of the Atlantic. That is, GFS is not as good as EC for instance in a particular quadrant of the Atlantic when it comes to forecasting TC's.

Would love to see a similar assessment done for the TC regions of Australia and the South Pacific. Anyone care to undertake this thesis?

Re: Spring fourteen

Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 3:10 pm
by crabmeat thompson
steve shearer wrote:Your mangoes are as honest as Tony Abbott.

They told us last year we were going to have a monster cyclone season.

no they didn't. they said at least one big one, which we did, and we scored, didn't we?