Spring fourteen

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crabmeat thompson
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by crabmeat thompson » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:06 am

Donweather wrote:
steve shearer wrote:An increase in the size, timing and strength of the inland Australia heat low. This massive mass of super-heated air is now going to influence our climate, making it more continental and less maritime. Most notably through Spring/Summer. Changing the balance between land and sea temp gradients and leading to longer and stronger northerlies episodes.
That's it, I'm moving to Tasmania!!!

God's country.

easily the best place for a surfer to live in Oz, if they like long lonely sessions, don't mind finding other outlets for long flat spells and love big raw coastlines.
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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Trev
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Trev » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:47 am

Braithy wrote:
Donweather wrote:
steve shearer wrote:An increase in the size, timing and strength of the inland Australia heat low. This massive mass of super-heated air is now going to influence our climate, making it more continental and less maritime. Most notably through Spring/Summer. Changing the balance between land and sea temp gradients and leading to longer and stronger northerlies episodes.
That's it, I'm moving to Tasmania!!!

God's country.

easily the best place for a surfer to live in Oz, if they like long lonely sessions, don't mind finding other outlets for long flat spells and love big raw coastlines.
If I could find an old fashioned long sail board I'd buy one.
I curse their head & all the hairs of their head; I curse their face, their brain, their mouth, their nose, their tongue, their teeth, their forehead, their shoulders, their breast, their heart, their stomach, their back, their womb, their arms, their legs, their hands, their feet & all their body, from the top of their head to the soles of their feet, before and behind, within and without

Donweather
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Donweather » Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:42 pm

I can see a faint light at the end of the tunnel....thank feck!!!

Nick Carroll
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Nick Carroll » Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:16 pm

think there's a bit of an undercall in forecast world re the deep sth fetch south of the Tasman Sea atm

that thing might surprise everyone south of Coffs on Friday

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steve shearer
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:19 pm

where Don?


And I'm with Carroll , I think this southern fetch has better than forecast potential. I like those swells......there can be some real mystery bag sessions on these swells if you're prepared to bet against the house.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Donweather » Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:35 pm

steve shearer wrote:where Don?
Long range charts - eastern quadrant. Don't get me wrong Steve. Nothing epic, but certainly punching well above the November weight!!!
steve shearer wrote:And I'm with Carroll , I think this southern fetch has better than forecast potential. I like those swells......there can be some real mystery bag sessions on these swells if you're prepared to bet against the house.
Winds look pretty woeful to capture the most from this swell....at least in Nth NSW/SE Qld.

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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Nick Carroll » Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:55 pm

steve shearer wrote:where Don?


And I'm with Carroll , I think this southern fetch has better than forecast potential. I like those swells......there can be some real mystery bag sessions on these swells if you're prepared to bet against the house.
yeah, I might get some north shore practice out the Bombie

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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Donweather » Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:13 pm

Some interesting comments made in the article "September 2014: Putting the Brakes on the Hype Train" further down on this page:

http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/di ... ts_117615/

Although the majority of what is said in the surfline article is already known to most keen surf forecasters.

The person that develops a WAM from ECMWF data will be a rich man IMO.

Would love to get my hands on that Halperin paper.

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swvic
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by swvic » Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:51 pm

PM me an email address and I'll send it to you
marcus wrote:and that vicco dude, whatsisname?

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steve shearer
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:43 pm

I've read the abstract and while it may be true EC has the greatest statistical reliability that still doesn't account for case by case model performance during the NAM.

You need to be on it and get a handle on how each model is initializing and performing subsquently.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Donweather » Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:36 pm

NAM?

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steve shearer
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Thu Nov 27, 2014 6:49 am

Northern Australian Monsoon: aka cyclone season
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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crabmeat thompson
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by crabmeat thompson » Thu Nov 27, 2014 1:58 pm

We're headed for a perilous El Niño period.

My mangoes told me.
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

Donweather
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Donweather » Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:01 pm

Braithy wrote:We're headed for a perilous El Niño period.

My mangoes told me.
I thought seabreezus told you everything? :D

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steve shearer
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:06 pm

Your mangoes are as honest as Tony Abbott.

They told us last year we were going to have a monster cyclone season.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Donweather » Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:20 pm

steve shearer wrote:They told us last year we were going to have a monster cyclone season.
And a surplus!!!

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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by Donweather » Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:35 pm

swvic wrote:PM me an email address and I'll send it to you
Thanks for the paper mate!!!

Summary is (which we kinda already knew):

"Overall, if two or more models predict TC genesis, there is a relatively low probability that all of the models are predicting an FA. Thus, the results from the various consensus experiments are better than those from any single model."

Other key statement is:

"The performance shows that the ECMWF misses many genesis events, but when the model does predict genesis, development usually occurs."

And some multi-model information:

"We also examined multiple model forecasts of genesis with three-model combinations. As expected, results from the three-model combinations generally are better than from the two-model combinations. Among the best are the GFS–NOGAPS–UKMET and the ECMWF–GFS–NOGAPS combinations, which yield a 100% chance that genesis does occur (albeit potentially at the wrong time)."

Of more interest however (and unfortunately this paper only investigated TC's in the Atlantic) is that some models have a greater success or failure rate in different areas of the Atlantic. That is, GFS is not as good as EC for instance in a particular quadrant of the Atlantic when it comes to forecasting TC's.

Would love to see a similar assessment done for the TC regions of Australia and the South Pacific. Anyone care to undertake this thesis?

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crabmeat thompson
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Re: Spring fourteen

Post by crabmeat thompson » Thu Nov 27, 2014 3:10 pm

steve shearer wrote:Your mangoes are as honest as Tony Abbott.

They told us last year we were going to have a monster cyclone season.

no they didn't. they said at least one big one, which we did, and we scored, didn't we?
Drailed wrote:Sound like a load of cunts to me Trev.

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