Autumn fourteen

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channels
Harry the Hat
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by channels » Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:47 am

8 wrote:Will happen for sure.... she will sit off NZ west coast, intensify and whirl like a dervish for a few days.

Iron clad guarantee of 10ft + for NSW
This prediction is looking ok. Current tracks show it heading for the tip of NZ, reckon Easter is going to pump.

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steve shearer
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:34 pm

nope.

winds are pointed the wrong way.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

8
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by 8 » Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:52 pm

Iron ain't what it used to be.... Still looking orright for fri/sat though

channels
Harry the Hat
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by channels » Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:24 pm

channels wrote:
8 wrote:Will happen for sure.... she will sit off NZ west coast, intensify and whirl like a dervish for a few days.

Iron clad guarantee of 10ft + for NSW
This prediction is looking ok. Current tracks show it heading for the tip of NZ, reckon Easter is going to pump.
Every time I look at the charts, the prediction from 8 looks bang on. The low out near NZ is looking big now.... To me I'm thinking 8-10 foot for Saturday, maybe even bigger. ))((

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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by Nick Carroll » Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:43 pm

hoax ha ha, nice, you made it happen shearer.

so let me fcuk up the mega cut off low this weekend that threatens to produce a really huge SE close range storm swell for everywhere sth of Newcastle. Because the last thing I want to do this Sunday is ride a really fcuken big wave off some bombie reef not far from my house. I mean that would be a really irritating waste of time.

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--++sunstroke++--
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by --++sunstroke++-- » Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:50 pm

Nick Carroll wrote:hoax ha ha, nice, you made it happen shearer.

so let me fcuk up the mega cut off low this weekend that threatens to produce a really huge SE close range storm swell for everywhere sth of Newcastle. Because the last thing I want to do this Sunday is ride a really fcuken big wave off some bombie reef not far from my house. I mean that would be a really irritating waste of time.

Shouldn't that be in the "Other things I hate" thread?
Sunshine, rainbows & happy balloons, all throughout the sky.

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steve shearer
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:56 pm

that thing looks fcuking rad.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by Donweather » Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:18 pm

06z GFS has wound it back somewhat from the 00z GFS and EC runs earlier this afternoon. I just hope the models don't downgrade like they did for tomorrow and Wednesday.

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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by Nick Carroll » Tue Apr 29, 2014 7:31 am

I dunno don, its back to looking even crazier again

Everything in the forecast seems to fit together, you know how sometimes it looks like the computer just thought some shit up and other times it falls into place, I suspect this is one of the latter.

Fcuken gun time yeeehaa

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steve shearer
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:13 am

agreed. all that autumn heat has to somehow make it back into the atmosphere.....a full scale seasonal changing storm like this just seems right.

permitted the luxury of reminiscing it calls to mind the great Mothers Day swell of 'Ninety Seven.

A beastly low formed and smashed Sydney on the Sat. Sunday dawned with an almighty southern swell and gale force offshores. Lennox Point was fifteen feet if an inch. Maybe bigger. It looked like Mavericks crossed with Laniakea.

I hitched down from Broken Head which was cloudbreaking to the horizon and there were no takers at the Point. I had the nine foot Brewer. Al was suited up. We rocked off after wading through waist high foam on the rocks. It was fcuked up. There were massive schools of sea run mullet in the line-up with bull sharks busting them up. Proper feeding frenzy.
It took Al and I almost an hour to get out back......we were way the fuschia out there. I could see Ballina. First set came and I paddled for the second or third wave. The thing reared up and in the thirty knot offshore I got held up in the lip and pitched from crest to trough. There was so much water moving in the line-up that I was dragged underwater and came up hundreds of metres down the line. I was swept past the hut in seconds, taking alot of heavy punishment. I came in near Brockies and saw Al on a bomb. He later lost his board and it was never seen again.

A couple of hours later I went back out. The wind had dropped and it was a flawless ten to twelve feet on the back button. Just dreamy on an hawaiian semi-gun. As the afternoon rolled on the swell dropped quickly. Turning late under the lip on a set I ran over Dan Thompson, who I didn't see in the sun. That sparked a feud between me and his Dad Carcass that was only relaxed a year ago when he rescued our lost parrot and we discovered a mutual love of birds.
The day was immortalised by my mate Jack in a ballad: The Great Mothers Day Swell.


Still, this one will probably be a hoax. Might rewax the nine footer just in case.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Donweather
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by Donweather » Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:10 am

Hmmmmm, GFS seems to be bouncing around with respect to this Tasman low this weekend. 00z and 12z runs have it pushing out into the Tasman way earlier than the 06z and 18z runs which seem to stall the fetch over land. This appears to be a recurring theme over the last few days. And I've noticed EC has stalled it slightly in it's 12z run also.

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steve shearer
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:26 am

I don't really care either way.

if it stalls we'll get more W'ly flow and the rockfishing will be captain insano....

if it moves out quicker the surf will come up.

any way we slice the ham we're in for an extended run of S'ly swell pulses.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Donweather
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by Donweather » Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:39 am

steve shearer wrote:any way we slice the ham we're in for an extended run of S'ly swell pulses.
Easy for you Steve, but I've got 10 mates hitting up our annual May Surfari from Sat-Mon/Tues so the guys aren't real keen to be drunk for Sat/Sun with no surfing!!!! With half of them heading home Monday afternoon, they want the swell to arrive Sunday!!!!!

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steve shearer
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Tue Apr 29, 2014 10:41 am

are you on the mid north coast?
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Donweather
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by Donweather » Tue Apr 29, 2014 6:06 pm

Geezus 00z GFS run looks fecking woeful!!! 00z EC run looks a lot better but it is delaying the swell until Monday so that's not a good sign (may well be just playing catch up to the 00z GFS run).

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steve shearer
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by steve shearer » Wed Apr 30, 2014 6:02 am

the 12z run continues the downgrade. oh well. sandbanks are saved.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes

Donweather
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by Donweather » Wed Apr 30, 2014 6:24 am

Feckin Huey!!!!

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No Pants Lance
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Re: Autumn fourteen

Post by No Pants Lance » Wed Apr 30, 2014 1:26 pm

Had a look at these models you speak of and figured there'd be too much westerly.
But I did get palpitations reading your Mother's Day '97 account Shep having been there recently. Ecky thump! Best you get a bigger leg rope if it does eventuate.
You mention Al, you mean our Al?

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