Autumn fourteen

[steve shearer]

from what cyclone?

[8]

That one developing about twice as far east as this one...

[steve shearer]

Long way to go before that gets anywhere near cyclone status. and it looks less and less likely that it will. Not even on the JTWC tropical weather advisory yet.

[crabmeat thompson]

The air's too dry, huh?

[8]

Ah well cyclone or not do youse reckon we are going to get some swell from it?

Pesky New Zealand is getting in the way for the latter stages but early on it looks like it lines up reasonably well.

[steve shearer]

I doubt dry air entrainment is a factor Braithy, seeing as it is over thousands of miles of tropical ocean. More likely unfavourable uppers or just not enough vorticity.

anyway, yes, the broadscale pattern will still develop a long range E'ly groundy. plus a tradewind swell with benefit in the lead-up.

more probs with pre-frontal northerlies in this neck of the woods.

this is evil. northerlies in march.
I want a refund.

[Donweather]

Yeah no cyclone but a good squeeze by a low/high combo and some slight retrograde again acting on an all ready active sea state.

Local winds could spoil the parade Again when this one arrives.

[crabmeat thompson]

On sundee I was watching the gold coast suns on the box, and the commentators said it was 40 degrees at ground level.

40 degrees, 30kt northerlies in mid march after the spring that never ended.

I'm about ready to go hunting pigs again with a bow.

[steve shearer]

uh-oh looks like ASCAT is off the air.

Don u know what's happened to it?

[black duck]

uh-oh looks like ASCAT is off the air.

Don u know what's happened to it?

Oscat's been off for a while too.
You can use
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php
which is part of the same family (an option in their data products)

[Donweather]

uh-oh looks like ASCAT is off the air.

Don u know what's happened to it?

No idea Steve. Maybe Lusi's groundswell washed the satellites away!!!

[Cuttlefish]

Still blowing from the North on the poor old Sunny hoax!
<:

[Donweather]

Well it looks like we're going to have take 2 with this next swell. N'lys spoiling the parade!!

[steve shearer]

[Donweather]

Steve, what's your thoughts on size for the peak of this upcoming groundswell?

[crabmeat thompson]

4ft @ 15 seconds.

[steve shearer]

super incon three to five with a smattering of six foot bomb sets at certain locations on favourable swings of the tide.

[Donweather]

Cheers Steve.