Winter

[steve shearer]

Quiet Winter: Carroll.

Active Winter: Shearer

Place your bets gents.

And the long range charts are now translating some of that tropical indonesian infeed into potential ECL action.

[Trev]

I'm not betting.

Tom Waterhouse has put me off.

But I'm hoping like hell Shearer's on the money.

[crabmeat thompson]

Somewhere in between, is where Tom Waterhouse said the 'safe money' was.

[steve shearer]

C'mon Braithy, climb of the fence and jump in, the water is warm.

[alakaboo]

Funny^

Active.
Still a bit of energy in the air, warm water.

[swvic]

Good, but I'm not counting on your ECLs

Late start to proper Autumn/Winter patterns here, but it seems to have arrived. Excepting this week, we've been surfing a perfectly groomed southern ocean. Because of the late start, I'm hoping for a late finish well into Spring

[Donweather]

SWVic, my mate and I were just talking the other day about how the seasons appear to be getting later and later each year. We'll be skiing in November soon!!!

Given that we're still in boardies up here in Qld/Nth NSW, I'm suggesting early winter is going to be rather active. As for late winter.....all depends on the ENSO IMO.

[swvic]

ENSO hanging around neutral, but the SOI has gone mildly -ive over recent times. El Nino maybe, but who really knows yet? BOM expecting low rainfall and higher min and max temps here for the May-July period

Personally, I'm interested in this stuff, but leave the forecasting to the likes of you and Shearer. I'm no good beyond currently approaching systems. Even then, I sometimes get it quite wrong

[Grooter]

Good, but I'm not counting on your ECLs

Late start to proper Autumn/Winter patterns here, but it seems to have arrived. Excepting this week, we've been surfing a perfectly groomed southern ocean. Because of the late start, I'm hoping for a late finish well into Spring

Last week in particular was damn good!

[swvic]

T'was, Groots. There'd been lots of days earlier in Autumn that were NW, but most of the quality breaks on this coast needs N to NE. So while Bells and the surfcoast was on, I imagine you were scoring well inside Westernport. I was surfing straight bank beachies. One or two spots handle that west in the wind, but lots of people hit it and I hate crowds

[crabmeat thompson]

C'mon Braithy, climb of the fence and jump in, the water is warm.

Ah, I can't do weather beyond looking at the 4 day synoptic and seeing where the swell is coming from and what the wind will be predominantly blowing.

Spending 3 of the last 5 years away from the ocean disables me greatly too. The water is still warm here and I'm in boardies for any surf not named the dawnie, and I can't remember wearing boardies into the bowels of May too often, if at all.

[steve shearer]

Toss a coin.

You either enjoy the glory of being right or suffer the craven humiliation of being publicly wrong.

[steve shearer]

FWIW.....my reasoning.

We've been in a weird quasi-Nina state for the late summer autumn but without any real equalising major events ie major low pressure or late season cyclones that rebalance the build up of oceanic and atmospheric heat energy. That is, in effect what low pressure does. it's raison d'etre

A calm and warm-ish May has allowed late season oceanic warmth to remain fairly static off the East Aus coast. SST anomalies of up to 2 degrees C off the NSW coast. Thats powder waiting for a trigger.

The trigger has been looming for a few weeks in the form of a strong tropospheric wave moving through Indonesian longitudes. This is picking up easily available oceanic heat content due to the warm waters of our quasi-Nina state having worked their way through the Indonesian Through-flow. Very warm water sitting off Indonesia. More anomalies in the 2 degree C range. Mental.

Now, look at the latest MSLP charts. Whats the defining feature? The semi-static trough line extending from Indonesian longitudes into NW australia. Thats tropical moisture right there. More powder.
That tropical moisture laden trough moves through the country this week.....and hits up with the warm water off East Coast ....when that gets hit by a northward moving cold front/cold pool.
Boom!
I think we'll see the first of an active series of ECL's by this time next week.

[Nick Carroll]

Yeah I don't have much reasoning, just a feel

Sorta would have expected a bit more action already from the tropical thing and the southern ocean cold pool thing seems to be stubbornly evading this area of the world while socking the crap out of everywhere else.

Adding up to shitty out of phase winter, at least as far as ECLs go, maybe some big south swells later on.

Be great to be wrong.

[Donweather]

So you don't think this will come to fruition then Nick?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2013051612!!/

[Kunji]

Bad winds all winter. You heard it hear first.

[Nick Carroll]

So you don't think this will come to fruition then Nick?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2013051612!!/

It's a 168 hour forecast chart don, I might just wait till next Thursday and see

[alakaboo]

If I was the pilot I'd certainly think about it for a minute or so.