Winter
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- steve shearer
- BUTTONMEISTER
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- Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm
Winter
Quiet Winter: Carroll.
Active Winter: Shearer
Place your bets gents.
And the long range charts are now translating some of that tropical indonesian infeed into potential ECL action.
Active Winter: Shearer
Place your bets gents.
And the long range charts are now translating some of that tropical indonesian infeed into potential ECL action.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
Re: Winter
I'm not betting.
Tom Waterhouse has put me off.
But I'm hoping like hell Shearer's on the money.
Tom Waterhouse has put me off.
But I'm hoping like hell Shearer's on the money.
Beanpole
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
- crabmeat thompson
- Huey's Right Hand
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Re: Winter
Somewhere in between, is where Tom Waterhouse said the 'safe money' was.
- steve shearer
- BUTTONMEISTER
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- Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm
Re: Winter
C'mon Braithy, climb of the fence and jump in, the water is warm.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
Re: Winter
Funny^
Active.
Still a bit of energy in the air, warm water.
Active.
Still a bit of energy in the air, warm water.
Re: Winter
Good, but I'm not counting on your ECLs
Late start to proper Autumn/Winter patterns here, but it seems to have arrived. Excepting this week, we've been surfing a perfectly groomed southern ocean. Because of the late start, I'm hoping for a late finish well into Spring
Late start to proper Autumn/Winter patterns here, but it seems to have arrived. Excepting this week, we've been surfing a perfectly groomed southern ocean. Because of the late start, I'm hoping for a late finish well into Spring
marcus wrote:and that vicco dude, whatsisname?
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- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
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Re: Winter
SWVic, my mate and I were just talking the other day about how the seasons appear to be getting later and later each year. We'll be skiing in November soon!!!
Given that we're still in boardies up here in Qld/Nth NSW, I'm suggesting early winter is going to be rather active. As for late winter.....all depends on the ENSO IMO.
Given that we're still in boardies up here in Qld/Nth NSW, I'm suggesting early winter is going to be rather active. As for late winter.....all depends on the ENSO IMO.
Re: Winter
ENSO hanging around neutral, but the SOI has gone mildly -ive over recent times. El Nino maybe, but who really knows yet? BOM expecting low rainfall and higher min and max temps here for the May-July period
Personally, I'm interested in this stuff, but leave the forecasting to the likes of you and Shearer. I'm no good beyond currently approaching systems. Even then, I sometimes get it quite wrong
Personally, I'm interested in this stuff, but leave the forecasting to the likes of you and Shearer. I'm no good beyond currently approaching systems. Even then, I sometimes get it quite wrong
marcus wrote:and that vicco dude, whatsisname?
Re: Winter
Last week in particular was damn good!swvic wrote:Good, but I'm not counting on your ECLs
Late start to proper Autumn/Winter patterns here, but it seems to have arrived. Excepting this week, we've been surfing a perfectly groomed southern ocean. Because of the late start, I'm hoping for a late finish well into Spring
It's possible to hate the filthy world and still love it with an abstract pitying lovesome cnut wrote:There are only two real problems that we face in life, knowing what we want but being unable to know how to get it and/or not knowing what we want
Re: Winter
T'was, Groots. There'd been lots of days earlier in Autumn that were NW, but most of the quality breaks on this coast needs N to NE. So while Bells and the surfcoast was on, I imagine you were scoring well inside Westernport. I was surfing straight bank beachies. One or two spots handle that west in the wind, but lots of people hit it and I hate crowds
marcus wrote:and that vicco dude, whatsisname?
- crabmeat thompson
- Huey's Right Hand
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Re: Winter
steve shearer wrote:C'mon Braithy, climb of the fence and jump in, the water is warm.
Ah, I can't do weather beyond looking at the 4 day synoptic and seeing where the swell is coming from and what the wind will be predominantly blowing.
Spending 3 of the last 5 years away from the ocean disables me greatly too. The water is still warm here and I'm in boardies for any surf not named the dawnie, and I can't remember wearing boardies into the bowels of May too often, if at all.
- steve shearer
- BUTTONMEISTER
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- Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm
Re: Winter
Toss a coin.
You either enjoy the glory of being right or suffer the craven humiliation of being publicly wrong.
You either enjoy the glory of being right or suffer the craven humiliation of being publicly wrong.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
- steve shearer
- BUTTONMEISTER
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- Joined: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 pm
Re: Winter
FWIW.....my reasoning.
We've been in a weird quasi-Nina state for the late summer autumn but without any real equalising major events ie major low pressure or late season cyclones that rebalance the build up of oceanic and atmospheric heat energy. That is, in effect what low pressure does. it's raison d'etre
A calm and warm-ish May has allowed late season oceanic warmth to remain fairly static off the East Aus coast. SST anomalies of up to 2 degrees C off the NSW coast. Thats powder waiting for a trigger.
The trigger has been looming for a few weeks in the form of a strong tropospheric wave moving through Indonesian longitudes. This is picking up easily available oceanic heat content due to the warm waters of our quasi-Nina state having worked their way through the Indonesian Through-flow. Very warm water sitting off Indonesia. More anomalies in the 2 degree C range. Mental.
Now, look at the latest MSLP charts. Whats the defining feature? The semi-static trough line extending from Indonesian longitudes into NW australia. Thats tropical moisture right there. More powder.
That tropical moisture laden trough moves through the country this week.....and hits up with the warm water off East Coast ....when that gets hit by a northward moving cold front/cold pool.
Boom!
I think we'll see the first of an active series of ECL's by this time next week.
We've been in a weird quasi-Nina state for the late summer autumn but without any real equalising major events ie major low pressure or late season cyclones that rebalance the build up of oceanic and atmospheric heat energy. That is, in effect what low pressure does. it's raison d'etre
A calm and warm-ish May has allowed late season oceanic warmth to remain fairly static off the East Aus coast. SST anomalies of up to 2 degrees C off the NSW coast. Thats powder waiting for a trigger.
The trigger has been looming for a few weeks in the form of a strong tropospheric wave moving through Indonesian longitudes. This is picking up easily available oceanic heat content due to the warm waters of our quasi-Nina state having worked their way through the Indonesian Through-flow. Very warm water sitting off Indonesia. More anomalies in the 2 degree C range. Mental.
Now, look at the latest MSLP charts. Whats the defining feature? The semi-static trough line extending from Indonesian longitudes into NW australia. Thats tropical moisture right there. More powder.
That tropical moisture laden trough moves through the country this week.....and hits up with the warm water off East Coast ....when that gets hit by a northward moving cold front/cold pool.
Boom!
I think we'll see the first of an active series of ECL's by this time next week.
I want Nightclub Dwight dead in his grave I want the nice-nice up in blazes
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- Huey's Right Hand
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Re: Winter
Yeah I don't have much reasoning, just a feel
Sorta would have expected a bit more action already from the tropical thing and the southern ocean cold pool thing seems to be stubbornly evading this area of the world while socking the crap out of everywhere else.
Adding up to shitty out of phase winter, at least as far as ECLs go, maybe some big south swells later on.
Be great to be wrong.
Sorta would have expected a bit more action already from the tropical thing and the southern ocean cold pool thing seems to be stubbornly evading this area of the world while socking the crap out of everywhere else.
Adding up to shitty out of phase winter, at least as far as ECLs go, maybe some big south swells later on.
Be great to be wrong.
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- Harry the Hat
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Re: Winter
So you don't think this will come to fruition then Nick?
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2013051612!!/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2013051612!!/
Re: Winter
Bad winds all winter. You heard it hear first.
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BA (on Realsurf) wrote: It's the wild west with a bit more homo-eroticism.
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- Huey's Right Hand
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- Location: Newport Beach
Re: Winter
It's a 168 hour forecast chart don, I might just wait till next Thursday and seeDonweather wrote:So you don't think this will come to fruition then Nick?
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2013051612!!/
Re: Winter
If I was the pilot I'd certainly think about it for a minute or so.
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