Winter: La Nina refuses to leave the building.

[Donweather]

I reserve the right to be totally wrong and defer to the title of the thread.

Ah, so a bet each way then!!!

[steve shearer]

I'll stick with the broadscale call Don.

[surferliam]

Past week has been shite, hopefully has helped the banks around the goldy grrr (horrible at the moment) hopefully will see some waves come end of next week with some better banks.

[steve shearer]

Long range shows another deepening trough/low in the CS with more rain and bankbusting surf for us.

[Donweather]

Long range shows another deepening trough/low in the CS with more rain and bankbusting surf for us.

Seems to be quite a regular cycle of this at the moment......has anyone checked if there's a correlation to the location of the LWT etc (or some other global scale weather measurement) when these trough/lows are in the Coral Sea/Nth Tasman?

BTW - What long range charts are you looking at Steve?

[steve shearer]

June was a classic wrassle between the newly developing Nino state and the last spasms of the dying Nina. It was cold and wet, with the unfortunate combo of massive south groundy and back to back ECL's delivering the death blow to local sandbanks. 400+ mils of rain sent brown dirty water out of the river to add insult to injury.

Now July; three days in a row of fcuking northerlies and it feels like September. One clear sign of the developing Nino: early northerlies.

This looks bleak. Really bleak. No sandbanks and northerlies developing in July/Aug.

Prepare for a flat spell (broken by some kind of S swells) of biblical proportion. If you have the wherewithal get thee the fark out of dodge sometime in Aug/Sep/Oct.

Worst case is we might be looking at March before we see a decent wave again.

[Grooter]

Meanwhile down south there appears to be something serious brewing in the Southern Ocean which is about to arrive on our doorstep towards the end of next week if the long range Indian Ocean forecast is to be believed

[steve shearer]

yeah, good looking outlook for Vicco.

[Donweather]

Am on the west coast NZ mid next week - looks very very promising

Promising or SCARY!!!!!

[steve shearer]

whaddya reckon Don?

[OddaP]

June was a classic wrassle between the newly developing Nino state and the last spasms of the dying Nina. It was cold and wet, with the unfortunate combo of massive south groundy and back to back ECL's delivering the death blow to local sandbanks. 400+ mils of rain sent brown dirty water out of the river to add insult to injury.

Now July; three days in a row of fcuking northerlies and it feels like September. One clear sign of the developing Nino: early northerlies.

This looks bleak. Really bleak. No sandbanks and northerlies developing in July/Aug.

Prepare for a flat spell (broken by some kind of S swells) of biblical proportion. If you have the wherewithal get thee the fark out of dodge sometime in Aug/Sep/Oct.

Worst case is we might be looking at March before we see a decent wave again.

God i hope not.

Water has ticked up a notch here in the last week, green and muky and cold on saturday and sunday morning crystal clear and noticeably warmer, the late yesterday was balmy with the light north and warm water.

[channels]

Am on the west coast NZ mid next week - looks very very promising

Promising or SCARY!!!!!

Getting Excited on the day I have free the forcast is at 100% chance of 10Ft - 16 sec swell and light offshores

Get in your car head to Raglan, get a channel bottom surfboard and go to Indicators.....

[Donweather]

Steve....update/thoughts? Particularly given current mid-long range forecasts!!!

[alakaboo]

Are the storm bars that bad down near you, Steve?
I haven't checked out everywhere, but where I have been wasn't as badly affected as I expected. Sand was shifted out of the dunes, sure, but didn't seem to go all that far offshore.

I'd like to retract this previous statement. The banks on the southern Gold Coast are as bad as I've seen in years. Contrasting mightily with other places I get to regularly...

Hope the rest of Steve's forecast turns out to be bunkum, pre-work surfs are less fun than they used to be.

[surferliam]

Are the storm bars that bad down near you, Steve?
I haven't checked out everywhere, but where I have been wasn't as badly affected as I expected. Sand was shifted out of the dunes, sure, but didn't seem to go all that far offshore.

I'd like to retract this previous statement. The banks on the southern Gold Coast are as bad as I've seen in years. Contrasting mightily with other places I get to regularly...

There are still a few good bank set ups on the north end and always uncrowded looking good for end of the week!

[alakaboo]

Yep, I'm aware. Haven't been able to get to that end much recently, but things change.

[steve shearer]

August is actually shaping up alright. A few banks are just starting to make sense of the dominant paradigm of small/moderate south swell.

[Nick Carroll]

fcuk, just in time for what's about to happen on Fri/Sat