Winter: La Nina refuses to leave the building.

[Donweather]

And Northern Luzon/Taiwan .......I know a secret left reef that would be off chops.

I saw this the other day and thought, feck there would have to be a myriad of breaks up in the NW Pacific that would be firing on all cylinders from the back to back storms/typhoons they're having up there. Jumped on google maps and was blown away by some of the setups I saw!!! If only one had a boat and an endless supply of fuel!!!

[Donweather]

Steve, what's your long term prognosis now for Spring on the east coast? Please give me some good news!!!

[steve shearer]

I predict we'll go from the worst winter in recent memory to an equally tragic spring.

Hopefully, one last strong blast of southern energy to at fire during Sep.

I'm looking forwards to Jan/Feb for the next quality wave and the hopes of a classic autumn on the El Nino rebound.

[Donweather]

Thanks Steve.

Bugger....that's not the news I wanted to here. OS Surfari here I come!!!

[Donweather]

Whilst La Nina has definitely left the building now, there's some amazing stats from the two successive La Nina's just past.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/hist ... 12/?ref=ad

[steve shearer]

dismal.

[alakaboo]

though okay for cyclone season?
Someone mentioned in passing that this much energy in the Phillos is a good omen?

[steve shearer]

Yeah for the North Pac.
Not here.

[alakaboo]

Firstly admits to be stretching here...

The comment, possibly misinterpreted (both by me and the person conveying it), was more about the IPO trend, so probably disregard the link to the NW Pac.

Take home message for me was that the storms tend to lag the switch to negative IPO by about 4 years, so we're overdue for a big cyclone season.

Not necessarily a wet summer, possibly even a dry one, but one with bouts of intense storminess.

[Donweather]

dismal.

Please explain? As I have no idea what this comment was reference too?

[steve shearer]

just a cry of despair Don.

[Donweather]

just a cry of despair Don.

LOL. Love ya work Steve!!!!

[OddaP]

Appallingly, abysmally, depressingly poor. And rub salt into the wounds its still too cold to get the flatties moving. I pray that your prediction of this representing spring is wrong.

Thankfully dissapearing soon to get some quality, but this ain't helping the paddle fitness.

[steve shearer]

Looking more interesting next week.

[Donweather]

Looking more interesting next week.

Please explain, cause I ain't seeing diddly on the charts for next week at the moment?

[steve shearer]

yeah...thought that little low near the North Is and cold front low on the weekend were looking marginally better but ......no, they are both hoaxes./

just slightly better than it was this week.

think I've surfed once in three weeks.

[Donweather]

The one near the north island tonight should send something surfable our way on the weekend.....probably be the best it's been in a few weeks, but feck that shit as the crowds will be a fecking joke considering it's the Sat before Father's Day and we haven't had any swell for almost 3 weeks now.

I still reckon that low near the south island late in the weekend/early next week has some potential.....but it currently a series of embedded low pressure systems in the trough fecking things up, instead of a single low pressure system and a high pressure system adjoining it's SW flank!!!!

Oh well, one can only pray and hope to Huey!!!

What's your take on the trough of low pressure up in the SPCZ showing up on the charts in about a week's time? Whilst not a swell producing system it's certainly showing some serious wet weather up/out there for so early in the season IMO??

[steve shearer]

The one near the north island tonight should send something surfable our way on the weekend.....probably be the best it's been in a few weeks, but feck that shit as the crowds will be a fecking joke considering it's the Sat before Father's Day and we haven't had any swell for almost 3 weeks now.

I still reckon that low near the south island late in the weekend/early next week has some potential.....but it currently a series of embedded low pressure systems in the trough fecking things up, instead of a single low pressure system and a high pressure system adjoining it's SW flank!!!!

Oh well, one can only pray and hope to Huey!!!

Actually ASCAT pass doesn't look too bad for that North Island low. Can't remember if I've forgotten how to surf.