the last hurrah

[brendo]

well theres always one last good soild ne/e swell before mid june. long range gfs pointing to a strong northerly flow around 5th june, not ideally positioned, but hey, at 10 days out it is gfs fantasy land
so are we looking at this being the last hurrah swell before the winter south swells? thoughts boys....

[Donweather]

I wouldn't neccessarily be calling it the last hurrah. We appear to be in a fairly regular cycle of troughs moving offshore around Fraser Island, forming into a low pressure system on the northern flank of a Tasman/NZ longitude high and tracking down the coast, and this one looks very similar to the last few over the last 4-6 weeks that we've been getting.

Models still all over the place mind you, so it aint a done deal just yet.

[Nick Carroll]

ne swell? ha ha ha ha ha fucken hell deal with the next week of 6-12' s and se craziness first eh

[brendo]

whats about to be unleashed wasnt modeled when i started the thread nick, as i said..it was gfs fantasy land...

[Nick Carroll]

well let us all enjoy what is actually about to be unleashed...because it is fcuken unexpected

[gabsouy]

weather gurus, a brief explanation of what you feel is about to be unleashed please based on the latest charts and forecasts.

[Donweather]

I believe it's called an ECL.

[Nick Carroll]

The coast from Newcastle to Kiama is about to be pasted with the biggest SE swell in many years.

The high tide on Tuesday night is 2.08 metres, on Weds night is 2.04m.

Every beach is gonna be torn to shreds, it's gonna be fcuken epic.

[alakaboo]

Every beach is gonna be torn to shreds, it's gonna be fcuken epic.

agreed. though probably for slightly different reasons.

[Donweather]

agreed. though probably for slightly different reasons.

LOL, boo. You must love it when these ECLs form!!!! Keeps you very busy.

[channels]

The coast from Newcastle to Kiama is about to be pasted with the biggest SE swell in many years.

The high tide on Tuesday night is 2.08 metres, on Weds night is 2.04m.

Every beach is gonna be torn to shreds, it's gonna be fcuken epic.

I bet the folks who live at Flight Deck or beachfront Collaroy are looking forward to Tuesday night!

[Nick Carroll]

I actually reckon the deep se groundswell behind the initial storm swell has epic promise. Angle is way better than the last two and it's had some sea state to work on.

Weds arvo/Thursday morning, watch it.

[alakaboo]

Yeah, Don, doesn't hurt (hopefully).
More than that, it can make higher levels of Govt. think a bit more sensibly.

When Californians are leading the way , we're really screwed.

[steve shearer]

Few interesting things about the storm and consequent swells.......one being the very long period refracted S swell underlaying whatever local Tasman sea swell gets whipped up by this close replica of an ECL.
And this isn't a typical ECL. In a more temperate context this is an almost exact replica of the storm swell/flood which impacted NENSW June 2009. That saw a deep trough off the coast with small but intense low pressure cells embedded in the trough......a kind of hybrid/complex low system which seems to be coming more of a common weather feature off the east coast.

Anyhow, the long wave trough steered a very long, broad fetch of severe gale to storm force winds SW of Tas into the Tasman corridor....the so-called Fiji swell. And this super long period energy will be underlying the Tasman swell. This could produce some extraordinary phase enhancement as the two swell trains intersect at certain deep-water locations.

Then, of course there is the more SE groundy referred to by Carroll as the hybrid/ECL system reorganises around one of the low centres currently near Lord Howe, blasting severe gale to storm force winds back at the coast on a very active sea state.

With a tiny bit of luck the expected northwards movement of one of the low centres will stay below the 29 degree parallel, thus reducing the stormsurf damage to the sandbars (long period energy is good for the development of new sandbanks, stormsurf destructive).

I'm pulling the ninefooter out from under the house.

[Nick Carroll]

you know what is fascinating about this, nobody on here seems that interested.

[Natho]

Biggest board in my quiver at the moment is a 6'4, so if this swell goes as planned I'm kinda frckked anyway.

[alakaboo]

What proportion of surfers would be:
fit enough
good enough
have flexible work
to really take full advantage of 12' swell?


I'm interested as hell.
Though I'm not going to be heading to any offshore bombies.

What are you going to be riding, Nick? You don't seem to be as much of a longer board devotee as Steve.

Longest board I've got in rotation is a 6'3 single, but kind of shaped like a shorter 6'7", fairly straight.
It's got a crack in the glass over the stringer, this could be a farewell swell.

Is there any way to fix them properly, or is it curtains?
The foam isn't depressed, seems like it's from the stiffness of the fibre- Innegra - not really handling the flex of the stringer?

[steve shearer]

There's a few spots here which can handle 10 feet of swell from the southern quadrant, the question is whether the swell arrives just before the expected southerly gales as a low centre moves north.
There could be an hour or two window of some big(for here) waves to paddle into.
I'd love that long period energy to push in first.