five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

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Donweather
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:17 pm

No swell from this one unfortunately digger.

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by diggerdickson » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:41 pm

Donweather wrote:No swell from this one unfortunately digger.
no probs for me, I cant surf anyway, lol.......... anyone want to bet when the next one will be........ :D
no, Im not a surfer, Im just a garbage man".

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Thu Feb 09, 2012 11:13 am

Well the "genus of shrubs and vines in the olive family" is certainly packing a real punch at the moment. Just a shame she's so compact!! :(

For me, looks as though GFS has been on the money so far with her reintensifying overnight.

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steve shearer
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by steve shearer » Thu Feb 09, 2012 12:07 pm

They tagged the intensification (pretty little cyclone with the annular structure) but I still reckon they are on crack with their track prediction.

EC seems much more plausible to me.

Finally got an ASCAT reading on her: she is one compact little storm......and just as it enters the swell window she moves transversely across the circle paths......

I'd reckon any swell potential is severely compromised by duration limits and it's movement across the circle paths.

IF, IF, IF she does show signs of stalling or moving more slowly south (compared to the current SE movement) then there could be cause for excitement.

This is no Sose though.
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Donweather
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Thu Feb 09, 2012 1:37 pm

Agree pretty much 100% Steve. GFS is the outlier when it comes to tracking/stalling predictions, but my point is that GFS has been pretty good at the moment, so fingers crossed.

Interesting to note that annular cyclones typically take longer to weaken than modelled/forecast, and therefore the higher intensity she remains, the less external influences have on her steering.

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:25 am

Feck me, it is late Summer, coming into early Autumn isn't it? I hope this lack of surf isn't a sign of things to come for this Autumn!!! :x

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by steve shearer » Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:28 am

I see some very encouraging signs that our next active phase in the tropics is imminent.
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:22 pm

steve shearer wrote:I see some very encouraging signs that our next active phase in the tropics is imminent.
Yeah I saw that Steve......just think there's some serious model divergence in their predictions at the moment to have any real confidence if it will deliver any swell for us. Rainfall looks to be coming though!!!

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by kookster » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:31 pm

Steve, Don, would this possible activity be hitting Fiji prioer to March 3????? rose-coloured glasses....
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steve shearer
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by steve shearer » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:33 pm

Just the fact of the strong high in the Tasman by end of this week is heartening.

also strengthening caucasian/siberian high suggests the next monsoonal surge.

MJO signal moving through phase 2.

K, you don't want tropical activity while you are there. You want frontal activity in the Tasman and light/slack trades. A strong monsoonal surge will be a worst case scenario. I reckon you'll escape it.
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:55 pm

steve shearer wrote:also strengthening caucasian/siberian high suggests the next monsoonal surge.
Please explain?
steve shearer wrote:MJO signal moving through phase 2.
Yep and that would concur with the model forecasts of tropical activity over the continent ramping up towards the end of Feb. Just don't want it to weaken much as it pushes into Phase 5.

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by steve shearer » Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:00 pm

That massive amount of cold dry air coming off the eurasian land mass is one of the key drivers of the cross equatorial monsoonal flow.
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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:02 pm

Oh, OK, thanks Steve.

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by SAsurfa » Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:19 am

Instead of later Feb, I'd expect the MJO to reach our region early into March. Hopefully we see some more activity relative to the last few weeks as the Coral Sea SST's are primed and ready!

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:21 am

Yep, the MJO appears to have stalled in the Indian Ocean, confirmed by the tropical activity going down there!!!

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by surferliam » Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:53 pm

As long as we get some waves (SEQLD) during April i'll be happy, 2 weeks off :D long way off, time to start praying.

From a Weatherzone user, Nitso:

NOTES ON THE MJO
The MJO signal is currently in the process of strengthening, we expect based on model guidance from a number of computer models that this moderate to strong signal will be maintained through phase 3 SE Indian Ocean and phase 4 Northern Oz before weakening in Phase 5 (Coral Sea) late in March. Consequently this strong MJO signal is likely to see the return of a vigorous monsoonal trough over north and north-west Australia with the weakening trough extending eastwards towards the Coral Sea in weeks 4 and then week 5 (last week of March) A new MJO may form and affect Australia late in April, however it's way too far to call at this stage.

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Donweather » Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:31 am

Although most of the models are indicating this next rain event to seriously affect our friends in the southern states, the fecking ants at my place are going bananas, so I'm thinking they know something the models don't!!!

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Re: five cyclones this summer for qld...if u believe it

Post by Trev » Tue Feb 28, 2012 10:29 am

Donweather wrote:Although most of the models are indicating this next rain event to seriously affect our friends in the southern states, the fecking ants at my place are going bananas, so I'm thinking they know something the models don't!!!
Just shot your weather prediction believability right out the window. :wink:
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