Autumn, how's it lookin'

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Shoulder hopper
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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by Shoulder hopper » Fri Apr 29, 2011 6:50 am

Holy shit batman, I've just seen the forecast charts for early next week and if this comes off, I am going out on a limb hear and calling 10ft plus most of the East coast.
I havn't seen a chart like that in a long time!
If it happens and travels down the coast like they think, you can expect some macking tow-in conditions down around the big smoke. Maybe even some harbour surfing for those in the know. Depends on the winds a bit as to how the surface conditions look but there is certainly gonna be some serious swell action IMHO.
Think I can feel a dodgy knee or pressing work commitments coming on! SH.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by Donweather » Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:29 am

Definitely looks like Sydney and the south coast and beyond (Tassie) are gonna see the bulk of the energy from this storm, but based on current forecasts, the peak looks to occur during the night (stealth), at least for Sydney.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by stinky_wes » Mon May 02, 2011 10:07 pm

And right on queue the pulse comes in the still of the night... There should still be plenty on offer in the morning if you know where to go and have the cajones!
http://mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/syddir.gif

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by oldman » Mon May 02, 2011 10:08 pm

It always seemed likely to peak at night SW.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by Donweather » Fri May 06, 2011 8:35 am

Mmmmmm, I don't know about the rest of you but next week is looking good with some nice super long range inconsistent E'ly groundswell and did I hear someone say offshore winds!!!

Of course I'm mainly looking out for SE Qlders.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by oldman » Fri May 06, 2011 12:54 pm

Not sure what you are seeing there DonW.

There is a super-strong high pressure off NZ next week which will blow a few days of east which could get your way, but no low above it on the charts I'm looking at, so not as convinced from the latest look that it will be strong enough to make it to the coast. It has to travel a fair distance. I note your comments about it being inconsistent though.

And although SE misses most southerly swells, there will be a cranking SSW swell building later in the week which will fill up all of NSW coast.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by Donweather » Fri May 06, 2011 1:26 pm

Don't get me wrong Oldman, it aint gonna be huge or consistent, but to have some really fun, powerful (for it's size) inconsistent 3ft/3ft+ E'ly groundswell and potentially all day offshore winds, well that's what Autumn in SE Qld is all about!!!

You guys can have your S'ly groundswells down there!!!

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by diggerdickson » Fri May 06, 2011 6:41 pm

Donweather wrote:Don't get me wrong Oldman, it aint gonna be huge or consistent, but to have some really fun, powerful (for it's size) inconsistent 3ft/3ft+ E'ly groundswell and potentially all day offshore winds, well that's what Autumn in SE Qld is all about!!!

You guys can have your S'ly groundswells down there!!!
Heres hoping for Monday Don, I might even make a trip to your favourite beach up this way.
no, Im not a surfer, Im just a garbage man".

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oldman
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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by oldman » Fri May 06, 2011 9:37 pm

Donweather wrote:Don't get me wrong Oldman, it aint gonna be huge or consistent, but to have some really fun, powerful (for it's size) inconsistent 3ft/3ft+ E'ly groundswell and potentially all day offshore winds, well that's what Autumn in SE Qld is all about!!!!
Mate, let me know what eventuates.

3' swell and offshores is pretty much as good as it gets if you can throw in a reasonably deserted beach.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by Donweather » Mon May 09, 2011 8:50 am

oldman wrote:3' swell and offshores is pretty much as good as it gets if you can throw in a reasonably deserted beach.
Got all of the above sorted!!! :D :P

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by alakaboo » Mon May 09, 2011 9:34 am

DonW and Olds (and anyone else who is in the know), I've been hearing around the traps that there was an official prediction (BoM) that we would be likely to have a more severe winter season of East Coast Lows this year than for the last decade or so.
Good news for surf, not so good for beaches.

I've been trying to chase up the original report but without much luck. If I find it I'll post a link.

What are the precursors for development of ECLs? Is there reason to believe this far out that they will be more likely?

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by Donweather » Mon May 09, 2011 9:47 am

alakaboo wrote:What are the precursors for development of ECLs? Is there reason to believe this far out that they will be more likely?
Based on my limited knowledge, the precursor is a warmer than average Tasman Sea, which based on our current (albeit dieing) La Nina, I believe we have this precursor, but with a dieing La Nina, not so sure how much longer (or higher than average) the Tasman Sea temps will last.

Obviously you also need some vigirous cold fronts dumping a large pool of cold air over the warmer than average Tasman Sea.

Mr Shearer and Craig (from Swellnet) are much more knowledgable in this arena so perhaps they can add some more value to this discussion.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by oldman » Mon May 09, 2011 10:07 am

'boo.

I've read a few things suggesting same but can't remember any sources apart from SASurfa (Craig from swellnet) who discussed this through the late summer months. Wasn't aware that BOM had called it also.

The theory was that the strong La Nina and historically high ocean temps in the Coral and Tasman seas meeting the cold winds from the usual frontal systems of autumn/winter would result in much higher probability of ECL's forming in the Tasman.

So it was just based on cold air meeting higher than normal ocean temps which is usually a pre-cursor to storms and possibly lows.

But no doubt DonW will be much more technically minded to explain. I'm just repeating sentences with not much greater insight than a parrot.

Re the beaches, the sand build up at the local is pretty high, but the build up on some of the central coast beaches I frequent has been huge. Been a long time since I have seen that much sand at some of them, and consequently the straighthanders have been the dominant wave type.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by alakaboo » Mon May 09, 2011 10:45 am

Cheers fellas. As I said, if I find the original report I'll pass it on.

re the sand Olds, I think the last time there was this much sand around was in the summer of 06-07, which was before we had the last good ECL season.

Without having the buoy or beach width data to back it up, I think there is a pattern. The active summer states associated with La Nina tend to lead to more northerly swells, which result in accretion at many NSW beaches (Coffs and south).
This can then lead into the ECL pattern described above.
I've just pulled that from the ether, but from memory the long term records at Collaroy-Narrabeen would bear that out.

SEQ and northern NSW beaches seem to be a bit light on in the sand department from all reports. I'll be up to check some out in a few weeks.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by black duck » Mon May 09, 2011 10:56 am

oldman wrote: Re the beaches, the sand build up at the local is pretty high, but the build up on some of the central coast beaches I frequent has been huge. Been a long time since I have seen that much sand at some of them, and consequently the straighthanders have been the dominant wave type.
Same for south coast olds. So much sand. Local lake mouth has closed over twice after being dredged during summer. Beaches are big.

My half baked unscientific guess is that we've had plenty of small (sand building) surf but no serious storm swells for over a year (maybe 2) to hack away at all the build up.

Just quietly, the overzealous dune reclamation projects of the last 20 years or so have also played havoc with the banks. More straight handers than ever.
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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by Donweather » Mon May 09, 2011 12:20 pm

alakaboo wrote:SEQ and northern NSW beaches seem to be a bit light on in the sand department from all reports. I'll be up to check some out in a few weeks.
I have never seen so much sand erosion at my favourite SC beachie before. It's been dessimated.

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by alakaboo » Mon May 09, 2011 12:51 pm

and would you say there have been more swells from the northern quadrant than in typical years?

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Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'

Post by alakaboo » Mon May 09, 2011 12:54 pm

i'm still chasing the report, but found one from Geoscience Australia which suggested the reverse pattern, i.e. more ECLs when there is an El Nino in effect http://www.ga.gov.au/image_cache/GA4206.pdf

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