Autumn, how's it lookin'
Moderators: collnarra, PeepeelaPew, Butts, Shari, Forum Moderators
Autumn, how's it lookin'
I noticed a missing topic based on previous forum patterns.
Long range, but next weeks possible weather forecast looks like giving hope to us Sydney based, wave starved hordes. Let's hype on it now before the models change.
Long range, but next weeks possible weather forecast looks like giving hope to us Sydney based, wave starved hordes. Let's hype on it now before the models change.
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
The old frother DonW used to start these, being a dedicated weather watcher.
Been a bit of a dry spell of late for Sydney siders, just an occasional bump, but some other parts have been getting some nice waves, nothing big, but nice.
Watching to see if the swell picks up today as per forecasts. Next week does look some chance although not really lining up for Sydney at the moment from what I can see.
Waiting for the cooler days of autumn to kick in with some different weather systems.
Been a bit of a dry spell of late for Sydney siders, just an occasional bump, but some other parts have been getting some nice waves, nothing big, but nice.
Watching to see if the swell picks up today as per forecasts. Next week does look some chance although not really lining up for Sydney at the moment from what I can see.
Waiting for the cooler days of autumn to kick in with some different weather systems.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
There appears to be potential for a low developing in the Tasman, if the current inland trough tracks over and intensifies. Could it be the 'big one' (since May 74's) that's been slated for a while?
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Models I have looked at seem to have the low forming over to our south west and never really moving offshore to bring us the swell.
It may do so out of the current forecast window, but the best for us looks like a middling east to nor east swell next week.
Will have to keep my eye on it as there is plenty of energy there, and it is an unusual pattern, but not lining up for east coast so well, last I looked anyway.
It may do so out of the current forecast window, but the best for us looks like a middling east to nor east swell next week.
Will have to keep my eye on it as there is plenty of energy there, and it is an unusual pattern, but not lining up for east coast so well, last I looked anyway.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
looks like there is some possibility for the early tomorrow, though I can't seem to get a clear picture of what the wind is going to be, BOM forecast is pretty clear about it staying North to Northeasterly, but some other sites are indicating west to norwesterly early until about 10-11ish am.
Trying to decide whether to drive some hours away or to stay local in Sydneys northside...
Trying to decide whether to drive some hours away or to stay local in Sydneys northside...
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
And now the weekend has a pulse forecast. The 3-5 day models are changing pretty fast at the moment. I'm having real trouble knowing when to prepare the wife for a leave pass request in this environment.
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Winds looked pretty good out there Wands.
Did you go out??
Did you go out??
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Donweather, whats the go with this swell forecast for this coming weekend for SE qld? Reckon it's gonna happen? So far its looking like a repeat of that epic day back in January..
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Don's obviously still recuperating from his OS trip.bumfluff wrote:Donweather, whats the go with this swell forecast for this coming weekend for SE qld? Reckon it's gonna happen? So far its looking like a repeat of that epic day back in January..
I'll send him a text.
Beanpole
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Thanks Trev. I'm back from my OS trip and going through my 13Gb of footage and pics at the moment. I'm also stepping back from the forums hence you won't see me on here a lot.
Anyway, back on topic and this weekend looks good for the points with a solid and powerful SE groundswell, peaking Friday, and slowly waning on Saturday, Sunday and even some dregs leftover on Monday morning. This is all from a low pressure system retrrograding westwards across the northern flank of a high pressure system throughout today and tomorrow off the west coast of NZ. So I'd be thinking the SC points should see an inconsistent 4-5ft+ (taking into account the SE swell direction) on Friday with the Goldy points seeing 4-6ft depending on their exposure to the SE swell direction.
For me, I'm getting much much more excited about the follow up system in the Tasman (behind this current fetch described above). Did I hear someone say some good sized E/SE'ly groundswell and offshore winds (possibly all day)!!
Anyway, back on topic and this weekend looks good for the points with a solid and powerful SE groundswell, peaking Friday, and slowly waning on Saturday, Sunday and even some dregs leftover on Monday morning. This is all from a low pressure system retrrograding westwards across the northern flank of a high pressure system throughout today and tomorrow off the west coast of NZ. So I'd be thinking the SC points should see an inconsistent 4-5ft+ (taking into account the SE swell direction) on Friday with the Goldy points seeing 4-6ft depending on their exposure to the SE swell direction.
For me, I'm getting much much more excited about the follow up system in the Tasman (behind this current fetch described above). Did I hear someone say some good sized E/SE'ly groundswell and offshore winds (possibly all day)!!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Thanks Trev and Don... Sounds promising!
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Weekend good. Monday andTuesday off the freaking richter, even in Qld.bumfluff wrote:Donweather, whats the go with this swell forecast for this coming weekend for SE qld? Reckon it's gonna happen? So far its looking like a repeat of that epic day back in January..
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Really? So it's going to pick up even more after Sunday? How big are we talking?oldman wrote:
Weekend good. Monday andTuesday off the freaking richter, even in Qld.
- oldman
- Snowy McAllister
- Posts: 6886
- Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
- Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
On current charts -
There is some serously big stuff brewing out there bumfluff, not too far away from SE qld on an active sea state, that looks like a fairly large near-cyclonic about 500 to 1000kms off the coast around Sunday night/Monday morning.
My guess is that Monday will see the biggest of it for you, maybe Monday Tuesday peak down in Sydney.
It's big, it's ugly, and it's on its way to your front door.
Too big for me I'm afraid.
There is some serously big stuff brewing out there bumfluff, not too far away from SE qld on an active sea state, that looks like a fairly large near-cyclonic about 500 to 1000kms off the coast around Sunday night/Monday morning.
My guess is that Monday will see the biggest of it for you, maybe Monday Tuesday peak down in Sydney.
It's big, it's ugly, and it's on its way to your front door.
Too big for me I'm afraid.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
For heavens sakes man, talk to me in a language the laymen can understand.oldman wrote:On current charts -
There is some serously big stuff brewing out there bumfluff, not too far away from SE qld on an active sea state, that looks like a fairly large near-cyclonic about 500 to 1000kms off the coast around Sunday night/Monday morning.
My guess is that Monday will see the biggest of it for you, maybe Monday Tuesday peak down in Sydney.
It's big, it's ugly, and it's on its way to your front door.
Too big for me I'm afraid.
The IGGY scale
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Probably too big for me, too.bumfluff wrote:For heavens sakes man, talk to me in a language the laymen can understand.oldman wrote:On current charts -
There is some serously big stuff brewing out there bumfluff, not too far away from SE qld on an active sea state, that looks like a fairly large near-cyclonic about 500 to 1000kms off the coast around Sunday night/Monday morning.
My guess is that Monday will see the biggest of it for you, maybe Monday Tuesday peak down in Sydney.
It's big, it's ugly, and it's on its way to your front door.
Too big for me I'm afraid.
The IGGY scale
I'll take the camera out to the point.
Beanpole
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.
Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.
-
- Harry the Hat
- Posts: 2599
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
For you Sunny Coast guys you have to remember the swell direction. For the swell arriving Friday and maintaining that size on Saturday, it's from the SE and winds will also be from the S/SE so this will push surfable options to the protected points, where due to the SE swell direction the surf heights will be smaller than on the open exposed beaches. So I'm still going with my size predictions as per above.
Monday/Tuesday at this stage looks smaller than this Friday/Saturday from what I'm seeing on the charts. That's not to say it's not an impressive low pressure system in the Tasman this weekend, just the fact that the fetch length and duration (over the same stretch of ocean) is much less than what is currently being brewed out off the west coast of NZ as we speak (and hence generating the swell coming this Friday/Saturday). But the key for Monday/Tuesday is that winds at this stage are looking sensational and hence much more surfing location options will be on the cards and hence open beaches should see something in the 4-5ft+ class on Monday/Tuesday from what I'm currently seeing. And if all the planets align we could well have all day offshores come Monday/Tuesday.
That's my 2 cents worth anyway.
Monday/Tuesday at this stage looks smaller than this Friday/Saturday from what I'm seeing on the charts. That's not to say it's not an impressive low pressure system in the Tasman this weekend, just the fact that the fetch length and duration (over the same stretch of ocean) is much less than what is currently being brewed out off the west coast of NZ as we speak (and hence generating the swell coming this Friday/Saturday). But the key for Monday/Tuesday is that winds at this stage are looking sensational and hence much more surfing location options will be on the cards and hence open beaches should see something in the 4-5ft+ class on Monday/Tuesday from what I'm currently seeing. And if all the planets align we could well have all day offshores come Monday/Tuesday.
That's my 2 cents worth anyway.
Re: Autumn, how's it lookin'
Thanks Don! Not as big as I was hoping (as a spectator) but gonna be pretty epic weekend no less..
That 6 - 8 foot day back in January at Kirra has ruined me...
That 6 - 8 foot day back in January at Kirra has ruined me...
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests