Summer. How's it lookin?

What surfer doesn't care about the weather? Who hasn't predicted the arrival of a new swell? Do all of it here!

Moderators: collnarra, PeepeelaPew, Butts, Shari, Forum Moderators

Post Reply
Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 08, 2010 9:12 pm

Well based on this update from the TSR, one would have to say damn fecking good!!!

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ec2010.pdf

I note also with the MJO potentially likely to hit the Maritime Continent as early as next week, it looks as though there could well be some tropical activity across the top of the continent around the middle (or just after) of December.

diggerdickson
barnacle
Posts: 2319
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:26 am
Location: home is where the heart is.

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by diggerdickson » Thu Dec 09, 2010 8:22 pm

heres hoping don, as im getting over this wind and crap surf, dont even check, just get up and have a listen to surf and see the wind and go back to bed, whats the point. :evil:
no, Im not a surfer, Im just a garbage man".

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Fri Dec 10, 2010 7:10 am

For those SE Qld weekend warriors, here's my thoughts.

http://www.surfphotos.com.au/weekend-su ... r-11th12th

diggerdickson
barnacle
Posts: 2319
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:26 am
Location: home is where the heart is.

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by diggerdickson » Fri Dec 10, 2010 3:10 pm

thanks for the ecouraging report don :evil:

User avatar
Trev
Huey's Right Hand
Posts: 30934
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 3:11 pm
Location: Any Point Break

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Trev » Fri Dec 10, 2010 3:22 pm

Donweather wrote:For those SE Qld weekend warriors, here's my thoughts.

http://www.surfphotos.com.au/weekend-su ... r-11th12th
Yeah. Mike Perry pretty much agrees with you, too. :twisted:
Beanpole
You aren’t the room Yuke You are just a wonky cafe table with a missing rubber pad on the end of one leg.

Skipper
I still don't buy the "official" narrative about 9/11. Oh sure, it happened, fcuk yeah. But who and why and how I'm, not convinced it was what we've been told.

User avatar
marcus
Owl status
Posts: 4363
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2004 1:56 pm
Location: s island

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by marcus » Sat Dec 11, 2010 10:52 pm

hey don, hows it looking for us down Sydney way?
Oscar Wilde - "I am not young enough to know everything"

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Sun Dec 12, 2010 10:31 am

Marcus, do you have any specific dates in mind or are you just asking in general?

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Mon Dec 13, 2010 9:57 pm

Well if that low off the SE Qld coast intensifies as forecast by EC and ACCESS throughout tonight and tomorrow morning, me thinks something surfable could damn sneak under the radar later Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

Of course GFS isn't being so kind so let's see what the ASCAT pass for tonight and tomorrow morning holds in comparison to the model forecasts.

User avatar
marcus
Owl status
Posts: 4363
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2004 1:56 pm
Location: s island

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by marcus » Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:06 pm

Donweather wrote:Marcus, do you have any specific dates in mind or are you just asking in general?
um in general, the surf has been small to flat for what seems like months now.
Oscar Wilde - "I am not young enough to know everything"

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:14 pm

marcus wrote:um in general, the surf has been small to flat for what seems like months now.
Well, firstly I'd be taking any model output from about 5+ days out with a grain of salt at present as the tropical activity progged up NW/N of the continent later this week is playing havoc with model reliability and forecasting. But in saying that, there's a reasonable chance for you guys down south of something in the wave department off the backside of the low currently off the coast of SE Qld probably around Wed/Thurs. Sure nothing huge, but something at least surfable in the 2-3ft class.

Beyond that there looks to be something for you guys from the southern quadrant probably around Tues of next week. Once again, nothing huge, but still surfable nonetheless. Although if EC comes to fruition (which it appears to have been more on the money of late compared to GFS) then you guys could score damn fine from the south come Tues/Wed next week for sure.

And beyond that, well if the MJO and associated monsoon trough make it across to the east coast mid-late next week, well all hell could break loose (in more ways than just swell!!!)

User avatar
oldman
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6886
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by oldman » Wed Dec 15, 2010 9:29 am

Donweather wrote:Beyond that there looks to be something for you guys from the southern quadrant probably around Tues of next week. Once again, nothing huge, but still surfable nonetheless. Although if EC comes to fruition (which it appears to have been more on the money of late compared to GFS) then you guys could score damn fine from the south come Tues/Wed next week for sure.
If it comes off as per current charts it may very well be something huge for a few days there Donw.

That's a very deep, fairly sizable and nicely positioned onion currently being progged. Will send substantial south swell at that rate, and with most banks having been groomed by weeks of nor easters, it could get interesting.

Caveat, that was the 1200 run, which Ben has advised in the past he takes less notice of, and your comments about reliability of forecasting atm are noted.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

User avatar
SAsurfa
barnacle
Posts: 1387
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:18 am
Location: 20 hours drive away..

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by SAsurfa » Wed Dec 15, 2010 10:37 am

EC is showing the same, but ACCESS is different. NOGAPS is similar to EC and GFS.

What we do know is that it's bound to happen as I have a knee op on Monday :(

User avatar
oldman
Snowy McAllister
Posts: 6886
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:11 pm
Location: Probably Maroubra, goddammit!

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by oldman » Wed Dec 15, 2010 11:32 am

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Oh Lordy Craig, that's not good. Now I know it will be pumping all week.

Did you get a new board as well?

Pumping it will be, there's probably a few systems lined up behind it as well now that we know that.

Lines up rather nicely with my holidays

Get well soon mate.
Lucky Al wrote:You could call your elbows borogoves, and your knees bandersnatches, and go whiffling through the tulgey woods north of narrabeen, burbling as you came.

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 15, 2010 12:45 pm

All I know is that the onion ring you blokes refer to will do feck all for surf up here in SE Qld. And given the conditions that we got this morning, send me more surface troughs that develop closed lows off the SE Qld coastline and then track SEwards!!!

This morning was easily one of the best mornings we've had up here since mid Spring.

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 15, 2010 2:00 pm

Just had a bit more of a looksy in detail and if the latest GFS and EC models come off, then there's a brief half decent fetch on the SW/W corner of the southern Tasman low pressure system that might get us SE Qld surfers half excited. It is a brief fetch mind you, so the pulse could well arrive under the cover of darkness in SE Qld, which is usually the case!!!

User avatar
SAsurfa
barnacle
Posts: 1387
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:18 am
Location: 20 hours drive away..

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by SAsurfa » Wed Dec 15, 2010 7:34 pm

Well all is going to plan now isn't it :shock:

Donweather
Harry the Hat
Posts: 2599
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:29 pm

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by Donweather » Wed Dec 15, 2010 8:53 pm

Are you referring to the onion ring Tasman low, Craig? I wouldn't have said it's a done deal just yet. Still some reasonable model divergence in the location and deepening of the low next Monday/Tuesday from what I can see?

User avatar
SAsurfa
barnacle
Posts: 1387
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:18 am
Location: 20 hours drive away..

Re: Summer. How's it lookin?

Post by SAsurfa » Thu Dec 16, 2010 7:49 am

Last night most of the models were showing a significant south swell and this morning confirms that we are going to see a large pulse of south swell during Tuesday.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests