Spring. How's it lookin?

[mustkillmulloway]

thanku

i'll save the petrol money till things are more promising

it's a very addictive part the planet ....i've got the bug

the island nth the broken lighthouse

i want investigate.....i just know there must be waves there....once every two years

[Trev]

thanku

i'll save the petrol money till things are more promising

it's a very addictive part the planet ....i've got the bug

the island nth the broken lighthouse

i want investigate.....i just know there must be waves there....once every two years

If you want a driver again, I'm in.

[oldman]

Of course he wants a driver TrevG, you have to drive his rusted out ute with a sticker on the back that says 'My family' though.

Fuck I'm gonna get some mileage out of this.

[steve shearer]

Don, Don, come back.

We need to seriously start discussing the prob of a cyclone before Xmas.

Although this event may yet end up shading it I'm seeing similarities with 88/89 and Bola and large E swells in the lead-up to Xmas 89.
Both associated with large positive SOI's.

[Donweather]

I haven't gone anywhere Steve....just been on the piss 3 nights this week so haven't been in front of the computer much and too hungover even at work to get on the computer!!!!

As for TC development, the amount of wet weather progged up in the northern latitudes over this week certainly looks impressive for so early in the season.

I was looking at the latest La Nina forecasts today and note that the models are now swinging back to only a moderate La Nina come early next year, which is a big step back from what they were progging a month or so ago. So I'm not counting my chickens yet for a bumper extreme La Nina, although short term (up to Christmas) it's looking damn good.

Shame I've booked my OS trip assuming it was still gonna be a La Nina by April

Also, any reason why in your forecast today you didn't mention the low pressure system EC has been progging for some time now out to the NE of NZ in a week's time? I know GFS has gone off the boil on this one today, but EC is still running with it?

[steve shearer]

ah, I believe I mentioned it on Wed but was under the impression that it would form too far south to be in the swell window.....
that could be an oversight.
....hopefully.

Just the shape of the high pressure cell made me think it would slip down the side of it....IE there wasn't a strong enough supporting ridge for the low.

Will review on Mon.

[Donweather]

Yep, you did mention it on Wed....hence why I was intrigued as to no mention of it today. I agree though, charts have wandered away from it somewhat now anyway.

[brendo]

Don, Don, come back.

We need to seriously start discussing the prob of a cyclone before Xmas.

Although this event may yet end up shading it I'm seeing similarities with 88/89 and Bola and large E swells in the lead-up to Xmas 89.
Both associated with large positive SOI's.

one of the biggest most perfect days ive ever seen at the point went down over that xmas period. perrrrrfect lennox with maybe 15 guys out all day. local crew featuring a young shaun munro and gunther rohn before his arm got fucked over. the next few days were a farken circus though when it dropped a few feet

[Donweather]

Ummmmm, latest EC model is looking rather tasty out on the horizon early to mid week!!

[Donweather]

Hey Steve, what's the SST off FNQ at the moment? Models are sniffing at some instability up there in 8-10days time!!

Might just coincide with the MJO as well?

[Donweather]

Hmmm, very fine line whether SE Qld will receive a solid E'ly groundswell late this week or not, courtesy of yet again that fecking sheep shaggin isle dissecting the fetch. At least all models are back on board now with the low pressure system to the NE of NZ in the next few days. Just need it to remain that tad to the north.

Speaking of north.....looks like the fecking devil winds could spoil this E'ly groundswell if it does eventuate anyway. Nth NSW might just be the place to be with winds likely to just have enough west of north in them.

Huey is paying me back dearly for last week.....cnut!!!

[huie]

ANYONE WANT TO REVISE THERE F/ CAST A TAD

[Donweather]

Feck me, someone seriously pissed Huey off....hope it wasn't me??

[alakaboo]

bit wet up there boys?

so, I'll be at Pt Lookout Thursday to Sunday this week.
Will I be able to get there?! :?

and more importantly, will there be waves?

[diggerdickson]

the swell is another hoax, hope Im wrong

[oldman]

What season is this?

Easterly swells for northern NSW/SE Qld, followed by possibility of a cranking south swell (albeit very dependent on whether the centre of the low gets enough east of Tassie.)

In spring??????????? On the east Coast of Oz???????????????????????

We're in bizarro world.

[Donweather]

and more importantly, will there be waves?

One could not pick a better location in SE Qld than where you're headed this Thurs/Fri and Sat. Sunday looks small, but Thursday arvo where you're headed should be damn near all time (assuming the banks are still good) with a nice looking E'ly groundswell on the cards. Still some debate on size as it all hinges on where the low tracks and how much of that fecking sheep shaggin isle dissects the fetch, but based on latest GFS, I'd be thinking you could well have some inconsistent 4-5ft bombs there on Thursday arvo.

[Donweather]

followed by possibility of a cranking south swell (albeit very dependent on whether the centre of the low gets enough east of Tassie.)

Models have got some serious divergence on this puppy at the moment, so watch this space I'd say. GFS is showing the best scenario, but as I said, expect some decent flip flopping between the models between now and then.