Chopes

[Donweather]

Any long range calls for Chopes? GFS charts are looking woeful, EC progging a slow moving low east of NZ, with a half decent fetch on it's W/NW flank, but I have to say, nothing outstanding on both models in the Southern Ocean, which is usually where Chopes likes the juice to occur. Has Surfline pulled off the rescheduling or not?

[Nappy]

Well I was about to make a call 6ft SSW swell for day one, possibility of inconsitent 8ft sets. Fetch looks to be strengthening beteween 180 and 160W at around 60S around 19th-20th Aug should be about on time for the start.

Beyond that hard to tell :? but looks like a lot of westerly flow behind that, still space for a system to push up and devolp though.

[steve shearer]

That's what I was thinking Nappy.....it loves that area to the SE of NZ.

And if something occurs there then the general pattern is likely to repeat again within the waiting period......

[Donweather]

Well I was about to make a call 6ft SSW swell for day one, possibility of inconsitent 8ft sets. Fetch looks to be strengthening beteween 180 and 160W at around 60S around 19th-20th Aug should be about on time for the start.

That fetch is very close to the ice shelf by the looks of things. Also worth noting EC isn't progging the same system yet. By my calcs, this puppy (based on the latest GFS model) would only deliver a small deep water swell in the 3-4ft range around Tuesday 24th/Wednesday 25th Tahiti time. Someone with better knowledge of Chopes could translate what a 3-4ft 13-15 sec deep water swell would create surf wise at Chopes, but I wouldn't have thought it was 6-8ft?

[Nappy]

Yea I was going by GFS its was pretty spot on a week out from Jbay and I prefer it.

Im just going but what im used to this model throwing up over the years waves wise.

I still stand by 6ft chopes standards and the "possibility" of 8 ft sets If fetch lives up to its full strength were looking at core wind speeds of 40-45 knots and 35 knots plus over a reasonably broard area. System looks remain in the window for 24+

Quite south so could be inconsistent and direction will be SSW. Anything could happen but im sticking with that call. Still a tricky out look next few days will show more.

I think this a new model BoM is using but im not sure http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... .168.shtml its almost the same as GFS for +168 hrs (of what we can see)

Anyway thats it for now.

[Nappy]

Latest GFS run has changed abit for the worse Wind speed lower at 60-55S and direction more west, could get swallowed by roaring 40's.

Northern fetch look a little stronger though. By monday we'll know I guess.

[Donweather]

GFS has died in the arse for that low in the 60S latitude. Both GFS and EC progging a small low east of NZ around Thurs/Fri 19th/20th, but hardly contestable swell from this puppy and probably arrives earlier than the 23rd Tahiti time.

Let's hope the low pushing into the Tasman around Sat 21st pushes further east past NZ and does a little dance....otherwise I aint seeing anything contestable as yet?

[Nappy]

Yup GFS has killed it now

[SAsurfa]

Don't know what you guys were looking at but I've been keeping an eye on the charts and it hasn't looked promising for a week or so now. Still looks average...

[Donweather]

Yep, I'm with you Craig. Surfline must be getting a little worried, particularly after all the hindcasting work they did with respect to the last 12 years of data. Just goes to show even with all the hindcasting in the world, Huey is still God when it comes to delivering swell.

GFS is progging something way down in the Southern Ocean way south of Perth towards the end of this week/weekend but the fetch is a little too W/SW. Needs some W/NW in it, or further deepening as it gets closer to the 120 deg/130 deg latitude. Nothing huge, but about the best aligned super long period swell we've seen on the charts at this stage. I still personally reckon the only real chance of decent swell they'll have is from the low in the Tasman pushing east of NZ early-mid next week.

[Donweather]

Looks like, as has occurred in several previous years, that the trials are going to be held in mackin swell whilst the main event misses out yet again!!!

Oh, and has anyone checked out the long range EC charts for the Indian/South Ocean in 8-10 days time. Not sure if this fetch will produce much for Chopes (still looks to be too W/SW fetch) but feck me, that's one lengthy intense fetch stretching out across a vast section of ocean. Look out southern Australia in about 2 weeks time!!!!

[Donweather]

Long range models hinting at something developing east of NZ in about 8+ days time....but still a long way to go before models nail down specifics.

[steve shearer]

what is that cnuting little blocking high doing SE of NZ......what kind of Kiwi fcukery is this?

[mical]

Steve, when are you flying out?

[steve shearer]

Sunday morning.

[pridmore]

I wana see ya mug behind that dude that always wears the headbands and shite on Fuel, cameo SS.....

Heard Laurie had a serious injury, chopped his chin or something , anyone know more ???
shame, he has the ability to win that event IMHO....who is gunna win ? guess it'll depend on swell size alot.... can AI go close ??? KS can if he brings his friend, confidence, its a whole different ball game if theres serious size, some names that run thru my head, I instanntly dismiss even though at most events they are favs.....

[Nappy]

Man looks real bad now maybe nothing all the way till september 3rd cept easterly trade swell. Probably just after the comp it will pump, dont think i'll be getting up to watch. Steven be prepered for the long haul I guess.

Meanwhile some 22+ sec period forerunners have appeared on the KI bouy http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65030.shtml

Tasty

[Donweather]

GFS is hinting at something developing east of NZ in about a weeks time. Nothing huge but should at least make something surfable. EC still progging the slowing of the Tasman low next week (NW of NZ, and it' still running with a deepening low well to the south of Tahiti in 6-7 days out from now). Eitherway, the models better hurry up and deliver something otherwise they might be looking for an alternative wave venue!!!!

I personally reckon they'll try and run it in the small, long period S/SW swells this week, local winds permitting, but they may have to extend the heat duration as the set waves will be few and far between.