Ului

[steve shearer]

Steve, haven't forgot Hamish at all. But Ului (based on current GFS forecast tracks) is packing weight above Hamish. Not so much in cyclone intensity, but more so in terms of longevity and cradling of the Tasman high.

I'd still counsel caution here Don.

The majority of the fetch from the cradling high is still bog standard ESE and reflected in actual surf conditions.

This cyclone still has a long way to go before it can even go any near Hamish in terms of surf for the Noosa Points.

Based on latest info...it's starting to look suspiciously like a Fran type deal.
Which produced about 10 days of good to great lead-up surf and a few messy days afterwards when Fran crossed......but no massive storm swell.

Never underestimate the ability of the Noosa Points to refract into surfable waves the most unruly of short range swells.

[alakaboo]

Longinus:
Costa Verde, 10 Orton Ct

was a serious response to what was apparently a sarcastic question...

Can anyone recommend a good place to stay in 1770? Whoops..now I've gone and done it

[LONGINUS]

Longinus:
Costa Verde, 10 Orton Ct

was a serious response to what was apparently a sarcastic question...

Can anyone recommend a good place to stay in 1770? Whoops..now I've gone and done it

Ah, with you mate - sarcastic? wait whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat

Cookies Reef is going to be smoking, Agnes Waters might even get a half decent wave out of this.

[huie]

We're all thinking about different places to go. When in reality, this is the swell that the bank from Johnsons - main beach has been waiting for. Fcuk the mal comp, I'm surfing right thru there.

timmy keep talking like that & i might start calling you a local

[Donweather]

I'd still counsel caution here Don.

The majority of the fetch from the cradling high is still bog standard ESE and reflected in actual surf conditions.

This cyclone still has a long way to go before it can even go any near Hamish in terms of surf for the Noosa Points.

Couldn't agree more Steve. My froth meter isn't blowing it's top just yet as the weekend is still a long way away when it comes to forecasting TC movements of this nature.

But my comment still stands. IF (and it's a fecking big if), IF TC Ului tracks as per currently modelled/predicted by GFS, I'm questioning the ability of the average surfer to make it out at Noosa (unassisted) at all but the most extreme protected point (first point). 6-7m swells are not to be messed with, and I believe the consistency factor of these swells will be rather high, given the close proximity of the storm.

Also, 6-7m is Hsig.......Hmax could well be up into the 10m+ (once again assuming Ului tracks as currently forecast).

[mustkillmulloway]

anyone want hazard a guess if or where it could hit land

( having a nightmare which sees me setting up a tent on a isolated central qld beach , that ends up being the exact cross over point ....not being pessimistic...and i know common sense shouldn't come into the plannin of a surf trip....just wondering if i should take bigger sand pegs for the tent )

[Trev]

anyone want hazard a guess if or where it could hit land

( having a nightmare which sees me setting up a tent on a isolated central qld beach , that ends up being the exact cross over point ....not being pessimistic...and i know common sense shouldn't come into the plannin of a surf trip....just wondering if i should take bigger sand pegs for the tent )

The Sunday projection on that map you posted earlier has it right on our heads. Take star pickets and a 2kg sledge. And chains, not guy ropes.
That'll be just to hold down our car. The tent can look after itself.

[Donweather]

Based on the latest projections from both GFS and EC, I'd be suggesting that you guys get the hell out of there (where you're going) come Saturday!!!

Cause if you hang around into Saturday arvo and Sunday, you wont be doing any surfing as you'll either be blown away or washed away!!!!

[Trev]

Should be a lot of fun.Who needs to go to Fiji for a cyclone?

[diggerdickson]

looking forward to a surf tommorow as only day off, hopefully will get some size but for some reason I dont think so, you can call me pessimistic also

[Nappy]

Fizzer Cat 2 now and expected to cross as cat 1.

[Donweather]

Fizzer Cat 2 now and expected to cross as cat 1.

Doesn't really matter as come late tonight, she'll be out of our swell window anyway. ie the swell were expecting from her tomorrow and into tomorrow afternoon has already been created on her SE flank.

[mustkillmulloway]

the swell was southerly up 1770...websites ( @ the time) continue report and forecast n/e

cyclones are...i give...vitually impossabile track with any certainly

but....i think next time i'll trust a look outside my window over anything the net predicts