Annual ANZAC swell again?

[Kunji]

Any of you long range guys have an idea about this ANZAC day?

The last 3 years were all over 6ft on the east coast. Im hoping for a 4th.

Any takers?
Bets?
Odds?

[Donweather]

Whilst there's any real tropical activity around the place, the long term reliability of the charts is well and truly shot to pieces.

Also.....isn't Anzac day like 6 weeks away

[Kunji]

Yes, thereabouts.

Its all an odds game. What are the odds?

[Kunji]

I think.... i think its happening for the FORTH year in a row fellas. Fingers crossed.

Looks like a real long period but should be some size.

[Donweather]

Wow, you must have access to some serious long range charts Coops? EC only extends to 18 April, so that's still 6 days away from the Anzac long weekend.

Super long range GFS is hinting at some tight lines down in the Southern Ocean leading up to the Anzac Day long weekend, but I'd be taking these with a few grains of salt at present.

For instance, both long range EC and GFS are hinting at some tropical activity around the NT around the 18 April, but one would have to ask the question what's the chances of that coming off so late in the cyclone season??

[Grooter]

There looks to be some fair farken swell headed for WA, SA and VIC though in the next couple of weeks

[Donweather]

There looks to be some fair farken swell headed for WA, SA and VIC though in the next couple of weeks

Uh huh, although I believe Coops lives in NSW and was looking at the Anzac Day weekend, and refracted S'ly groundswells passing up and around the bottom of Tassie and along the east coast are always dicey with respect to timing as they come and go quite quickly, so one could easily happen just before the Anzac weekend, none during the Anzac weekend and then another new pulse post Anzac weekend, all of which wont be doing Coops any favours.

Coops has obviously seen something in the long range charts, but I'm keen to hear what?

[Donweather]

Hey Coops, based on the super long range charts, I can't see a hell of a lot of long period groundswell on the charts for you guys down in NSW? Southern Ocean looks to go a little quite for the week leading up to the Anzac Day long weekend, although both EC and GFS are progging an OK fetch to develop south west of the continent around Thurs/Fri before the Anzac Day long weekend, but me thinks this wont get to the east coast of NSW in time for the Anzac day long weekend, even looking at the Monday 26th April.

So for me, you're only hope for swell is from the small easterly dip/low pressure system progged to form to the North of NZ around Thurs/Fri before the Anzac Day long weekend.

Of course it's highly likely that the models will chop and change between now and then, but it is surprisingly odd how convergent the long range models (GFS and EC) actually are this far out.

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[Nick Carroll]

Ha ha Coops's spot -- even if it's off the hook on Anzac Day's long w/end -- will be under the gun from Layne's mega chick contest (April 21-26, Dee Why).

Sorry coops ... I take back the "ha ha". It'll be fun to watch .. as long as you're not a DY local.

[Kunji]

Don, i was going of some charts my mate sent me a while ago. It was his prediction. He has since changed his mind according to the updated data.

NC, i wouldnt be surfing DY that weekend if there was swell. Plus, those chicks would be on the beachie not out the point

Where is our Laney's home break anyway? I saw her out the point once. She wasnt getting a look in. haha.

[Donweather]

Coops, if I were you, I'd be working over the Anzac Day long weekend and claiming the 3 day's surfing probably from the Tuesday 27th April onwards!!! Likely to then see some of your long period stuff!!!

May also see the possibility of some more locally generated larger swell in the Tasman around this time as well........

[Donweather]

EC is now on board with some activity in the southern Tasman during the Anzac day weekend, but it's fair to say the swell from this system is likely to arrive quite late into the long weekend, even down the south coast. GFS also has a tightening of the pressure gradient on the NW corner of a high pressure system east of New Zealand (the actual fetch is in the Tasman) directing a mid range punchy NE swell at the south coast of NSW also, but once again late into the Anzac Weekend. EC's not interested in this scenario however, so I'm not confident on it coming to fruition.

[oldman]

South swell, possibly quite big, looking reasonable chances now coops, but as Don says, won't arrive till late for the weekend. Maybe south coast for Monday though. Get an extra day off to give yourself a long weekend and take the Tuesday as well.

DonW, sunny coast seemed to be in for a nice nor-easterly stream to create some swell up there. Is that still showing for you?

[Donweather]

Oldman, I've found the south coast struggles to capture the full benefit of these highly refracted S'ly groundswells. ie, by the time the swell bends around Tassie and back into the east coast, the peak in S'ly groundswell size is actually at locations further north in latitude.

As for our E/NE swell, I'm not holding my breath as EC isn't entertaing the idea of a low pressure system on the northern flank of the high later this week, so I'd be taking the GFS charts with some grain of salt at present.....at least until EC comes on board.

[oldman]

Oldman, I've found the south coast struggles to capture the full benefit of these highly refracted S'ly groundswells. ie, by the time the swell bends around Tassie and back into the east coast, the peak in S'ly groundswell size is actually at locations further north in latitude.

Know what you mean. Can often be in Sydney watching a huge southerly swell march up the coast and pretty much miss us completely. Central Coast Newcastle way is well presented to pick them up where I would miss then here.

As for our E/NE swell, I'm not holding my breath as EC isn't entertaing the idea of a low pressure system on the northern flank of the high later this week, so I'd be taking the GFS charts with some grain of salt at present.....at least until EC comes on board.

Last 3 updates I have checked have shown fairly substantial changes to the forecasts out to next Monday or Tuesday.

Coops, forget previous suggestions, now not confident of anything.

Some macking lows down the south seem to manage to point the right way while under Tassie or just east of NZ but turn to blow due west while in our swell window. I't like they're teasing us! Mexico looks likely for some swell, hatchman.

[SAsurfa]

As Don has pointed out, Olds I don't think that the South Coast is the best option for south swells unless the system responsible for the swell has developed off Tassie's East Coast or pushed up from close to the Antarctic shelf to the south of Tassie or the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand's South Island.

Those fronts that just push east in a more zonal track seem to be shadowed by South East Cape in Tassie and Green Cape etc.

As you said the Hunter and Seal Rocks region pick up the most size due to it's geographical postion and open aspect to the south swells.

I head down South only when there is a big south swell running or something from the south-east to north-east.

[Donweather]

Fair to say the charts are all over the shop at the moment. Compare the 168hr forecast from GFS and EC.....they couldn't be any further fecking divergent!!!

Sorry....should clarify that....they couldn't be any fecking further divergent for the east coast. Fairly well aligned for a mackin swell down south through the bight though!!!

[oldman]

As Don has pointed out, Olds I don't think that the South Coast is the best option for south swells

Yep, on board with that one Craig. I tend to look at the aspect of the swell generator. If the energy is heading north east then it won't move in to south coast. We are only getting refracted swell, which won't make landfall until somewhere from Sydney and often north of that.

Have become aware through following what you weather nutters say just how much the Newcastle area juts out and has a much more southerly facing aspect to pick up those swells.

But those big southerly lows can point back nor west occasionally, in which case no or less refraction required, in which case south coast gets it first and bigger. I recognise they are the exception rather than the rule.

DonW, comments noted about divergence of models. Only open my mouth to change feet sometimes.