RealSurf Surfers' Forum

Nick Carroll wrote:It creates splendid-looking low pressure systems where they won't be appearing, just in order to drive Australian surfers mad.

Nick, is this in reference to the low to the N/NE of NZ this weekend? If so, why do you think it wont occur?

If it's the Tasman low later in the weekend/early next week that you're referring to I couldn't care less whether this system eventuates or not as we wont see anything of substance from this one up here.

^^
I think he's just talking about the NZ MetVUW 7 day forecast in general. It's the "rose coloured glasses/ if all the planets align/ in a perfect world", of synoptic forecasts, that's for sure

Based on NC's prognosis/gut feel/tea leaves/horizon gazing, and his assumption of the current forecast models I'm calling Tues/Wed next week "FLAT AS A TACK"!!

C'mon Huey, PROVE ME WRONG

(I love reading through these threads, pick up the different approaches we all have to what is an extremely difficult science.)

Butts wrote:Based on NC's prognosis/gut feel/tea leaves/horizon gazing, and his assumption of the current forecast models I'm calling Tues/Wed next week "FLAT AS A TACK"!!

C'mon Huey, PROVE ME WRONG

And in addition she'll be blowin 40knts onshore as well!!!

Yeah nothing too see from this incarnation of the models. Maybe a foot or two of weak windswell but with sh|tty onshore winds.

Not even worth getting out of bed for next week

No.

I know I certainly would not even consider going down the NSW south coast on Monday or Tuesday or down to Tasmania on Wednesday.

Do you guys get what I am trying to do here yet.

SAsurfa wrote:Yeah nothing too see from this incarnation of the models.

Wow, good thing I can't rely on the 18Z run. They are some of the funkiest looking charts I think I have ever seen.

I am so interested in how this pans out. Seems like.............well, better not say unless I break the forum code.

Nick Carroll wrote:No.

I know I certainly would not even consider going down the NSW south coast on Monday or Tuesday or down to Tasmania on Wednesday.

Do you guys get what I am trying to do here yet.

Do I detect a fleck of froth on the side of your mouth?





Tell me it's froth NC.









It is froth, isn't it?

Nick Carroll wrote:No.

I know I certainly would not even consider going down the NSW south coast on Monday or Tuesday or down to Tasmania on Wednesday.

Do you guys get what I am trying to do here yet.

So you and Butts go to the same school then hey Nick!!!.....next time then, in your first post, place one of these at the end so we know where you're coming from!!

oldman wrote:

SAsurfa wrote:Yeah nothing too see from this incarnation of the models.

I am so interested in how this pans out. Seems like.............well, better not say unless I break the forum code.

The sea gulls know when the east coast low is gunna blow
They settle down on Manly District Park and Warringah rugby grounds the more that settle the bigger the blow.
Ants are no longer reliable, they get fooled now by transient low pressure systems that deliver little or no rain,
Predicting doesn't come south of Nowra fortunately I can see my break easily and can be on it without prediction!

Otway - you will not need to do any predicting next week.

Unfortunately I have just discovered in my schedule an important meeting in tassie next week so I wont be able to how this forecast plays out at my local

Well know we have a twist in the story..

Latest EC run has removed the low that was progged to form off the NSW North Coast Saturday (What have we done Don ), lessening the swell opp's for around Sydney

GFS on the other hand keep things looking very juicy indeed, hopefully things come more into line tomorrow morning

SAsurfa wrote:Latest EC run has removed the low that was progged to form off the NSW North Coast Saturday (What have we done Don ), lessening the swell opp's for around Sydney

I wouldn't be too concerned Craig. Ben always said that the 00z run wasn't as reliable as the 12z run, so start to panick if she's not there in the morning!!!

I'm not too concerned eitherway really. Our E'ly swell window is looking insane and I'm gonna chase me some forerunners at the start of the week whilst the winds are looking more favourable for my fav SC beachie.

And I have to say two things.....the fat lady wont be singing for sometime to come by the looks of it....and secondly....where's that Shearer fella gone? His absence is well noted.

barstardos wrote:Unfortunately I have just discovered in my schedule an important meeting in tassie next week so I wont be able to how this forecast plays out at my local

You poor thing B. One would think a particular skeleton ground might be smoking come mid next week....local winds pending of course.

Donweather wrote:...and secondly....where's that Shearer fella gone? His absence is well noted.

Too busy getting some sneaky little go-outs in the fore-runners of this swell which was in the water yesterday.....a lovely peaky 2-3ft with light onshores.

I'm sticking by earlier calls.

I'm most interested by the possibility of the NSW low moving some sand, as there are finally some well placed slugs sitting in some odd places.....a close range very south swell with south wind should really get the longshore drift moving.....putting the sand in just the right places for a straight E swell.

steve shearer wrote:Too busy getting some sneaky little go-outs in the fore-runners of this swell which was in the water yesterday.....a lovely peaky 2-3ft with light onshores.

You bastard!!!

steve shearer wrote:I'm sticking by earlier calls.

I reckon we could well see some 6ft+ bomb sets come Tues!!!

steve shearer wrote:I'm most interested by the possibility of the NSW low moving some sand, as there are finally some well placed slugs sitting in some odd places.....a close range very south swell with south wind should really get the longshore drift moving.....putting the sand in just the right places for a straight E swell.

I hope you're right Steve as the Goldy banks are in dire straits at the moment and they need something to bring them back into some form of rideable banks.

Meanwhile, my fav SC banks are in damn fine form so I'm hoping that S'ly wind and S'ly swell doesn't move too much around up there!!

Nothing to look at here, move along.
This is one of the runs that can't be relied upon, so will not happen.

This won't be likely to do much at all, and in particular won't be creating a large shorter period south easterly swell intersecting with a much longer period east nor east swell for NSW beaches.

And it won't last long, and it won't repeat a similar pattern out to 180 hours, and there isn't much energy in the Tasman and Coral seas at the moment.

Is that Ok you weird internet nazis who think a realsurf forum is the butterfly's wings that determine whether that slight trough turns into a cyclone?

We're all just sidestepping the main issue here anyway.
Conveniently ignoring the elephant in the room.