so what of this foul dip in the isobars

[Nick Carroll]

...in the sw Pacific on the late January progs.

More juicy east swell in the offing perhaps?

[Donweather]

I'm not getting too excited yet Nick, as the local synoptic winds closer to home look horrendously onshore too boot (more so for us warmer water latitudes).

[stinky_wes]

It seems as though the models are forecasting some action in the Coral Sea for the outer reaches of the model run, most likely to scale it back to nothing over the coming days. With the warm ocean temperatures up north, iIm surprised we havent seen anything of note from the NE this summer. Is everyone else sick of this windswell?

C'mon Huey, send us some cyclones!

[heefcoate]

yeah so much for the bom's forecast of more then average cyclone activity to QLD and coral sea this season. The weather pattern better change soon. as for any swell in the next 7 days. latest prog shows fuck all!!!!

[Donweather]

yeah so much for the bom's forecast of more then average cyclone activity to QLD and coral sea this season.

Don't write the old girl off just yet. She's still very early days with respect to cyclone season in the Coral Sea and Tropical South Pacific. This neck of the woods usually comes alive during Feb-Mar anyway.....remember the Quiky Pro!!!

There's a much higher probability of TC developments in this neck of the woods when the MJO moves out into Phases 5 and 6, so stay tuned in around 2-3 weeks!!!

[Revolution]

Don't write the old girl off just yet.

Im still waiting for the NYE swell...

[Donweather]

Im still waiting for the NYE swell...

Well you've only got 337 days to go, so keep waiting!!!!

Let me know how you get on too please, as I'm deeply interested in your well being.

[stinky_wes]

Getting warmer...

[wanto]

fizz ....... pop.

[Trev]

We've got waves but can someone please dial the wind a few degrees more to the south.
ps. I don't want to have to drive 60+ ks each way for my daily surf (where the wind is acceptable)

[heefcoate]

our only hope is for that low to track south to south-east.

[brendo]

havent u guys been watchin development of the low north of nz mid next week.?

[Donweather]

Don't count ya chickens just yet B. Whilst this would be rather nice for the east coast swell generation, it's fair to say that the other leading model (EC) paints a very different picture with the tropical low (perhaps even a TC) hugging the coastline of Qld late next week.

So whilst it looks as though there's a damn good chance of some tropical developments around late next week, as to where this tropical development will form is still rather "out there" with respect to the models at the moment.

[steve shearer]

Yeah, persistent convection around Willis Island.
Though the BOM have this low weakening.
EC seems to favour some kind of hybrid system moving down the east coast next week.
Though it has to be said all the models have been schizophrenic with the latter part of their runs.
Certainly feels monsoonal/pre-cyclonic at the moment.
We wait.
Anyhow Don , what do you bloody care, aren't you in the Solomons next week?

[Butts]

Mrs Butts and I will be visting Fong on the 8th Feb for a couple fo days. I'm starting to like the look of this producing something
whilst we are there.

I'm sure Fong will talk to Huey and ENSURE that the winds remain offshore though

[Donweather]

Anyhow Don , what do you bloody care, aren't you in the Solomons next week?

I wish Steve.....with a super long period NNW groundswell hitting there around 6/7th February I'd love to be there then. I don't leave for another 2+ weeks (17th February).

I'm actually in Adelaide next weekend anyway, so whatever swell comes off the tropical activity I'm afraid I'll be missing her anyways.

[steve shearer]

JTWC are interested in the low of Cairns.
BOM have changed their tune.
A SE track is a reasonably likely outcome.
Wouldn't be surprised if the BOM put out a cyclone watch today.
Sustained gales all night at Green Island.

[thermalben]

These kinds of weather situations highlight some of the small problems within the BOM's delivery mechanisms.

Right now, if you go to the Queensland Weather and Warnings page, and click on the link to Tropical Cyclone Warnings and Information, you'll be presented with a big map of Australia that says "No current cyclones". Fair enough, there are none (although to be technically correct, it should say ""No current tropical cyclones", as there are a few cyclones in the Australasian region).

This map was updated at 2200UTC on the 30th. So, around 9am Saturday morning (40mins ago).

Moving right along, and if you go back to the 'Queensland Weather and Warnings' page, and then click on All Queensland Forecasts and then Tropical Cyclone Outlook, you'll read the following forecast:

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK - for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 3:17pm on Friday the 30th of January 2009

At the present time, a weak tropical low will occur off the NE tropical coast over the next few days but will weaken on Monday.

So, the latest Tropical Cyclone advice says we have a weak low off the NE tropical coast that'll get weaker on Monday.

So far, two out of two pages on the BOM site - arguably the two most likely to be referenced by people seeking TC information - say there's basically nothing on the cards whatsoever.

But if you look a little further, and dig out the Queensland State Forecast and Extended Outlook, buried in their 350 word forecast is this:

The monsoonal lows off the north tropical coast and over the central Coral Sea will reorganize by Monday with the latter system persisting and deepening further as a monsoon surge moves across the north-west Coral Sea. There is a reasonable likelihood that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday and move to the south-east, guided by an upper trough, away from the Qld coast.

This forecast was issued at 4:45am this morning, and it paints quite a different picture to the TC outlook issued Friday afternoon. But - when will the TC outlook page be updated? Probably not until the middle of this afternoon. Even the Great Barrier Reef Offshore Waters Forecast - the region most likely to be affected by the early stages of this suggested system mentioned nothing in their notes, which were updated at 4:38am this morning. A quick glance of the wind outlook actually points to a mild weakening during Monday and Tuesday:

Forecast
Saturday until midnight: SE/E winds 25/33 knots reaching 30/40 knots over northern waters.
Sunday: SE/E winds 25/33 knots reaching 30/40 knots over northern waters.
Monday: SE/E winds 20/30 knots.
Tuesday: SE winds 20/30 knots.

Sure - model guidance changes, and so do the forecasts - but these pages offer a broad spread of cyclone possibilities within the short term forecast period, which are often hard to distinguish by the lay-person.