so what of this foul dip in the isobars

[Donweather]

Hey Ben, isn't the BOM TC Outlook usually a "3" day outlook, and hence if they're saying that in the "extended" forecast that the TC wont likely develop until Tuesdaay, then me figures they wont include this in (or update their) 3 day TC outlook until Sunday, yeah?

I see EC is now pulling the TC next week further away from the coast, running more in a SSE direction parallel to the coast....actually getting a little more in line with the GFS forecast??

[thermalben]

Don, I was referring to the fact that anyone who logged onto the BOM's site this morning would have come across these two phrases from two different pages:

At the present time, a weak tropical low will occur off the NE tropical coast over the next few days but will weaken on Monday.

The monsoonal lows off the north tropical coast and over the central Coral Sea will reorganize by Monday

They both say completely different things, for the same region, for the same day (Monday). And, the second quote goes on to say that the 'reorganized' system is pretty likely to be a TC by Tuesday. However, you have to dig hard to find that information.

I also note a couple of interesting developments since this morning's post:
(1) the "Tropical Cyclone outlook" page was updated at 2:39pm this afternoon, to state that the probability of TC development on Sunday is Medium, but Low on Monday and Tuesday.
(2) the Queensland State Forecast and Extended Outlook - which, in its 4:45am update this morning, said "There is a reasonable likelihood that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday" was updated again at 11:44am as such:

The weak low off the north tropical coast will weaken near the coast on Monday. A second low may develop in the Coral Sea by mid to late week.

This is a pretty big backflip from the forecast issued just seven hours earlier (which in itself was a major upgrade from the previous notes issued Friday evening). Also, it doesn't really correlate with the TC forecast information updated at 2:39pm today.

[thermalben]

So just to summarize, here's a timeline of the information distributed so far:

3:17pm Friday
"At the present time, a weak tropical low will occur off the NE tropical coast over the next few days but will weaken on Monday."

4:45am Saturday
"The monsoonal lows off the north tropical coast and over the central Coral Sea will reorganize by Monday with the latter system persisting and deepening further... There is a reasonable likelihood that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday..."

9am Saturday
Updated Tropical Cyclone Map with "No current cyclones"

11:44am Saturday
"The weak low off the north tropical coast will weaken near the coast on Monday. A second low may develop in the Coral Sea by mid to late week."

12:21pm Saturday
"A slow moving monsoonal low 998 hPa, was located near 15.8S 147.4E. The low is expected to move SW slowly closer to the coast and weaken in the next 12 to 24 hours."

2:39pm Saturday
"The probability of tropical cyclone development during the next three days is:
Sunday: Medium
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Low"

Confused?

[thermalben]

BTW, I'm not have a go at the BOM - I know a lot of the forecasters, and I know how difficult it is to commit to an evolutionary scenario under these circumstances. But as I wrote in the first sentence of my first post... "These kinds of weather situations highlight some of the small problems within the BOM's delivery mechanisms."

[heefcoate]

well ill be the son of a witch, theres a cyclone

[Donweather]

well ill be the son of a witch, theres a cyclone

It's marginal at best.....either way we aint gonna see anything from this girl at least in the short to medium term.

[steve shearer]

Not so fast Don, maybe not short term.
Looks like a crossing tomorrow before a recurvature of the remnants back out to sea and still a good possibility of some hybrid development.
Ellie might end up smelling ok.

[Donweather]

Ellie might end up smelling ok.

I wasn't writing her off in the medium to long term Steve. Just the short to medium term. I agree if she comes down the coast things are looking on the up.....although I'm getting way more excited by the other low north of New Zealand next weekend.....that's the kinda girl that does it for me.

[heefcoate]

well Tc ellie didnt deliver much but the low is still there and is moving back out to sea and chances are it will reform into another cyclone.

UK met predicted the exact movement of tc ellie and now have released a new track for this next cyclone:
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
17.7S 146.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.02.2009 17.7S 146.5E MODERATE
00UTC 04.02.2009 17.1S 146.5E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.02.2009 16.4S 148.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.02.2009 17.3S 149.7E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.02.2009 17.9S 151.5E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.02.2009 18.9S 152.7E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.02.2009 19.7S 153.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.02.2009 21.9S 153.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.02.2009 22.4S 154.2E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.02.2009 24.9S 154.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.02.2009 25.0S 155.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.02.2009 27.1S 156.1E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.02.2009 28.0S 157.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

the last being off fraser island

[steve shearer]

Heefcoate, the consensus seems to be that the low is actually a new low and not ex-Ellie.
Therefore IF it turns into a TC I think it will be named Fred.
Either way looks like plenty of swell for QLD/Northern NSW.
(just hope it tracks far enough out so local weather isn't an abomination).

[heefcoate]

yeah i was reading on WZ forum that the direction it takes will depend on the strength of the upper ridge to the high pressure.

If the system remains weak and shallow, then the Tasman HIGH will cradle it to the SW. If the system develops depth, then the upper NW will carry it SE, before mid level ridging attempts to counteract the flow. The resultant vector wind should be towards the south. Depending on the mid to upper ridge strength as to what variant of a southerly direction it takes e.g. ridge weak = SSE movement ridge strong = SSW movement, Ridge doesn't develop at all = SE/ESE movement.

[Donweather]

Therefore IF it turns into a TC I think it will be named Fred.
Either way looks like plenty of swell for QLD/Northern NSW.
(just hope it tracks far enough out so local weather isn't an abomination).

Gold....TC Fred....classic name.

And your last sentence sums it up to a tee Steve. Cyclones or hybrid systems in close proximity to the coast are a joke in my opinion. Do nothing but create crap chunky windswell and onshore winds with a very limited window of opportunity for cleaner conditions and leftover swell once the low tracks south of your beach.

I'd prefer this system to not eventuate actually so that the 2nd system further to the east in the Coral Sea (NW of NZ) can do her thing properly and create some very nice waves for later into the weekend and early next week. I note that EC has kinda aligned more so with GFS on this scenario now, although it does have a weak low coming down the coast later into the weekend and early next week.

It's fair to say that the model reliability/predictability at present is rather crapola so who knows what will happen? Meanwhile in the Northern Hemisphere!!!

[Donweather]

Latest UKMET forecast is still indicating a rather nasty tropical storm to track parallel to the SE Qld coastline, passing within 500km or so of SE Qld later into the weekend. If this puppy comes off, lookout for some solid swell.

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.02.2009 17.1S 147.3E WEAK
12UTC 04.02.2009 17.4S 147.1E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.02.2009 16.7S 148.0E WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.02.2009 16.0S 149.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.02.2009 16.9S 150.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.02.2009 17.5S 152.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.02.2009 19.1S 152.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.02.2009 21.1S 153.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.02.2009 23.5S 155.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.02.2009 26.4S 159.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.02.2009 29.8S 163.6E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.02.2009 32.5S 168.0E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.02.2009 35.0S 172.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[heefcoate]

that right down into the tasman.

that other low over new caledonia is now down to 995hpa and tracking south.

[heefcoate]

well as time goes by its starting to look worse and worse for that low to form into a cyclone. But the low just south of NC is looking the better. if it drifts south and stays moderatly strong like its forecast to do we may see some swell.

winds about the low have been up to gale force. here is some obs






Norfolk island forecast:
A tropical low pressure system developed southeast of New Caledonia and is
expected to deepen whilst moving southwards over the next couple of days. Low
cloud and showers are likely as this low moves closer to the island. Winds are
generally expected to be fresh to strong Friday onwards, possibly reaching gale
force depending on the positioning of the low. Heavy sea swell may be generated
towards the weekend.

[wanto]

since when did the bogan become a weather forecaster? heef, you're not really in the best location for NNE swell - has the drought got you clutching at straws?

your best bet (and sydney's) is the 1st low as it moves east and troughs out above Nz - still not a substantial system for this far down the coast, the 2nd system is way too directional to be much use to us, the brunt is headed due S. yeah it'll be better than we've had recently, but don't get too excited.

[heefcoate]

how can ya not get excited when you have had no swell for 2 months? and fuck im headin north this weekend!

[steve shearer]

We're already seeing swell from the New Cal low, models are now hinting at a westwards regression as it moves south.
Looks cherry for Mid-North Coast north.
And holy phuck there's some good sandbanks around.