SE Qld Looking the GOODS

[Donweather]

If any of you SE Qld surfers (aka mustkillmulloway) feel like coming down with a 24hr virus, then I'd be highly recommending next Wed 14 January. We will be seeing some very nice long lined exceptionally long period (for SE Qld) E/SE groundswell around this time, albeit some super super long waits for the larger sets.

Local synoptic winds are looking a bit of a dog mind you, so this will more than likely limit surfing options to the more protected points, however with this exceptional long period swell, it should still be wrapping into these rather nicely.

Let us know how you get on mustkillmulloway!!!

[Nick Carroll]

hey don is there some way you can figure out how to wipe the north island of NZ off the map?

f**ken blocks soooo many good e swells

[steve shearer]

I thought with all the cuzzy bros over here, it might make it a bit lighter ie easier to tow away
Damm thing is smack bang in the road as the fetch intensifies.
aarrggh.
I like the look of the storm track so far though....long wave trough steering things sou-east and a quasi stationary monsoonal gyre with convective bubble-ups in the trailing vortices....looks good for SE QLD/Northern NSW.

[Donweather]

f**ken blocks soooo many good e swells

Yeah, even more so for you guys down there....and as Steve said.....check out the bloody fetch on the low as she re-intensifies well to the south.....anyone wanting to source some NZ east coast waves!!!!

[Donweather]

looks good for SE QLD/Northern NSW.

UH HUH!!!

Let's just hope that phantom Coral Sea cyclone doesn't take off and spin down and ruin the local synoptic winds.....just like the last decent long period E'ly groundswell we had (which was ruined/drowned by a damned ECL),

[steve shearer]

yeah, GFS and EC doing a strange paso doble on the chances of cyclogenesis in the CS next week.
Only small areas of favourable uppers.......

[Donweather]

f**ken blocks soooo many good e swells

Actually Nick I kinda like NZ where she is......it means that SE Qld finally has something (surfwise) over central and Sth NSW.....more E swell when low pressure systems track southwards east of NZ.....you guys can't have enerything down south!!!

[Donweather]

Hey Steve, I just read your latest forecast and noticed that you're calling next Wed 3-4ft for SE Qld. I thought you were going to call more than that. I realise this system is a long way away, but she's fairly stationary for a day or so (which is relatively unusual for these systems in that neck of the woods) and she's packing a fair punch on her southern flank.

Models are indicating something of the order of 2m swells at 12-14 second periods next Wed up here.......are you thinking they're overcooking the swell production from this girl?

[oldman]

I like the look of the storm track so far though....long wave trough steering things sou-east and a quasi stationary monsoonal gyre with convective bubble-ups in the trailing vortices.

Plus there will be winds over a long fetch generating swell from a weather system that doesn't seem to be moving much!!!!!!


I vote we tow NZ south about 3000 kms. It doesn't just block NSW, a lot of long period se swells would hit southern qld if NZ wasn't there, and instead of getting a day or so of swell if might stay around for 3 or 4 days.

I'm really hanging on some nice swell and conditions over the next few weeks. I need something that lights up a lot of breaks so that the crowds can dissipate.

[Trev]

I like the look of the storm track so far though....long wave trough steering things sou-east and a quasi stationary monsoonal gyre with convective bubble-ups in the trailing vortices.

Plus there will be winds over a long fetch generating swell from a weather system that doesn't seem to be moving much!!!!!!


I vote we tow NZ south about 3000 kms. It doesn't just block NSW, a lot of long period se swells would hit southern qld if NZ wasn't there, and instead of getting a day or so of swell if might stay around for 3 or 4 days.

I'm really hanging on some nice swell and conditions over the next few weeks. I need something that lights up a lot of breaks so that the crowds can dissipate.

While we're at it, lets tow the Great Barrier Reef up off Japan somewhere.
Think of all the great new spots we'd have all along the Qld coastline, instead of just the SE corner. That'd fix the crowd thing for a few years.

[Nick Carroll]

hey looks like this easterly train isn't gonna be pulling out of the station for about a month. NZ in the way or not, we're gonna be surfing heaps in January.

[Donweather]

hey looks like this easterly train isn't gonna be pulling out of the station for about a month. NZ in the way or not, we're gonna be surfing heaps in January.

Whoah, a month.....that's a big call Nick....what makes you say that time frame?

[Donweather]

The southern end of the Goldy had some lighter more favourable winds this morning (as it usually always does).

Tomoz looks a lot more favourable wind (and swell) wise.....with Friday being my pick for local cleaner winds up the Sunny Coast....although expect long waits for larger set waves on Friday.

[steve shearer]

Hey Don, the forecast for Wed was bumped up to 3-5. Which seems pretty on the money.
Lot of noise in the signal here (lennox Head).Lump and gurgle.
Seems the direction is a bit more south of East than expected. And thus Northern NSW seems a bit bigger than north of the border.
Know where I'd be going if I was up the Sunny hoax.
Steve.
although trades are set to maintain, the monsoon trough is weakening post Charlotte and looks set to retreat somewhat.
Hopefully the MJO will shake off it's schizophrenic wanderings and return to a more normal periodicity.
Seems like we are on a good polarity with the north Pacific as it's set to fire again.

[Donweather]

Hey Don, the forecast for Wed was bumped up to 3-5. Which seems pretty on the money.
Lot of noise in the signal here (lennox Head).Lump and gurgle.
Seems the direction is a bit more south of East than expected. And thus Northern NSW seems a bit bigger than north of the border.

Yeah I noticed that you'd bumped the forecast up a notch. And from the looks of this sneaker set from BCam this morning I'd say that the swells on the up here in SE Qld as we speak.........

14jan09bb2.jpg

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although trades are set to maintain, the monsoon trough is weakening post Charlotte and looks set to retreat somewhat.
Hopefully the MJO will shake off it's schizophrenic wanderings and return to a more normal periodicity.

What's doing there? It's been wandering all over the place for the last week or so, but it looks set to move out into Phase 7-8 later this month, which for me is good news as the W/NW monsoon winds bugger off from my Tropical South Pacific Island retreat that I'll be at in 5 weeks.

Seems like we are on a good polarity with the north Pacific as it's set to fire again.

She's certainly got some good looking storms brewing up there for the foreseeable future, although the major component is westerly facing, there still looks to be some good fetches developing on the western flanks of the low's up there, particularly in the long term forecasts with some good adjoining high pressure systems helping to lengthen and strengthen the fetches. Figures crossed she remains like this well into Feb!!!

[Nick Carroll]

hey looks like this easterly train isn't gonna be pulling out of the station for about a month. NZ in the way or not, we're gonna be surfing heaps in January.

Whoah, a month.....that's a big call Nick....what makes you say that time frame?

Well it's just a wild guess really but... looks like a fairly strong southern ocean low moving out past NZ in the next few days, it's probably gonna hurl a fair chunk of cooler southerly air into the tropical sw Pacific.

So that usually spawns something wicked in the tradewind belt as the upper air stabilises over NZ and the cool and warm stuff collides and mixes further north.

Something about the way this season has unfurled makes me think we're gonna be seeing some pretty volatile weather in the region, not that Fiji hasn't been getting stormed on, but I'm thinking more tropical cyclonic type activity.

[Donweather]

I think all SE Qld and Nth NSW surfers are smiling this morning.

I know I am!!!

[Donweather]

Something about the way this season has unfurled makes me think we're gonna be seeing some pretty volatile weather in the region, not that Fiji hasn't been getting stormed on, but I'm thinking more tropical cyclonic type activity.

So long as it's not in the Solomons region in 5 weeks then I'm happy Nick.